Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Chargers vs. Chiefs Odds
| Chargers Odds | +4 |
| Chiefs Odds | -4 |
| Over/Under | 54 |
| Date | Thursday, Sept. 15 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | Amazon |
The second installment of Thursday Night Football in 2022 will feature the Los Angeles Chargers and the Kansas City Chiefs. Oddsmakers are expecting a tightly-contested affair between these two division rivals, pricing the Chiefs as 4-point home favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Los Angeles Chargers
Following a disappointing 9-8 regular season in 2021, the Chargers were penciled into the Super Bowl for 2022 by many pundits. Yet, there was very little from their narrow Week 1 defeat of the Las Vegas Raiders that screamed “contender.”
Justin Herbert played well, completing 26-of-34 pass attempts for 279 yards and three touchdowns. Yet, the run game was anemic, totaling only 76 yards on 31 carries against a Las Vegas defense that profiles as mediocre, at best. Keenan Allen played less than one-half of the Chargers’ season-opener, but still led the team in receiving with four catches and 66 yards. Following his departure, Los Angeles scored only seven points, and had only 45 yards of total offense on their final five drives of the afternoon. Mike Williams was notably absent, recording only two catches for 10 yards on four targets – leaving many to wonder if he is capable of replicating his impressive 2021. The offensive line was mostly strong in pass protection, but mostly abysmal in the run-game. Facing an improved Kansas City defensive-front, the Chargers’ offense could struggle.
Defensively, Los Angeles had no answer for Davante Adams in Week 1, allowing him to catch 10 passes for 141 yards and a touchdown. The poor performance from the secondary unit was unsurprising, considering the absence of their top cover cornerback, J.C. Jackson, who is still recovering from ankle surgery. In Jackson’s absence, Asante Samuel Jr. and Michael Davis were frequently victimized. If Jackson plays on Thursday, he is unlikely to be at full health. If he does not play, expect Samuel Jr. and Davis to once again struggle mightily in coverage.
The main strength of this defense is undeniably their pass-rush, which recorded five sacks against a weak Las Vegas offensive line in Week 1. Derwin James Jr., Khalil Mack, and Joey Bosa all had at least one sack in the contest, and they figure to continue wreaking havoc in opposing backfields throughout the season. Still, their impact on Thursday could be mitigated by an outstanding Kansas City pass-blocking offensive line and a mobile quarterback, who is adept at escaping the pocket when needed. If Los Angeles cannot get pressure on Patrick Mahomes in this matchup, their defense could have a long night.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Patrick Mahomes will struggle without Tyreek Hill camp has been awfully quiet since the Chiefs scored 44 points against the Arizona Cardinals last Sunday. In their Week 1 slaughter of the Cardinals, Mahomes completed 30-of-39 passes for 360 passing yards, including five touchdowns. Notably, six different Kansas City pass-catchers had at least three receptions, and another three pass-catchers had at least one catch in the win. During the preseason, many pundits forecasted regression for Mahomes and company in 2022, but I mentioned in our preview of the Chiefs that this offense is actually better this fall than it has been in past years. Mahomes still has the same elite arm talent that got him drafted in the first round, and now finds himself behind one of the better pass-blocking offensive lines in the league after continued investments into the unit from the front office across the last two seasons. Further, the absence of Hill has created more diversity in this air-attack, allowing the offense to operate more on rhythm and timing, rather than forcing the ball to Hill and Travis Kelce. Defensive coordinators are going to have sleepless nights trying to stop this offense in 2022.
Perhaps most encouraging from the Chiefs’ Week 1 victory was their ability to run the ball effectively, totaling 128 yards on only 27 carries. Clyde Edwards-Helaire had 42 rushing yards on only seven carries as part of a tandem approach out of the backfield. Edwards-Helaire also flashed his pass-catching abilities, securing two receiving touchdowns in the contest. If Kansas City can pair a rhythm-and-timing passing attack with a formidable ground game this fall, there should be very few stalled drives over the next four months for this group.
A year ago, Kansas City was one of the worst defenses in football, but the addition of elite young talent during the offseason made an immediate impact in Week 1. Per Pro Football Focus, George Karlaftis recorded six pressures on only 33 pass-rush snaps, immediately validating the front office’s decision to select him in the first round of this past summer’s draft. The secondary unit played spectacularly as well, holding Kyle Murray to only 193 passing yards on 34 attempts before he was replaced by backup quarterback Trace McSorley late in the game. The absence of Trent McDuffie on Thursday, due to an ankle injury, is worth noting, but Kansas City’s secondary unit remains capable of slowing-down a Los Angeles passing attack that will be without Keenan Allen.
Chargers vs. Chiefs Picks & Predictions
The Chargers offense struggled mightily after Keenan Allen left the game shortly before halftime in Week 1. On their final five drives, the Chargers failed to score a single point, and totaled only 45 yards of offense. Facing frequent two-high looks from the Chiefs on Thursday, Los Angeles is unlikely to threaten 30 points. Though it may seem hard to believe, the Chargers might struggle to break 20 points in this contest if the Kansas City secondary plays as well as it did last Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals. On the other side of this matchup, Patrick Mahomes should be able to do what he chooses against an injury-riddled Chargers’ secondary unit, but he is unlikely to lead the Kansas City offense to another 40-point performance. Despite their faults, Los Angeles has a much better defense than Arizona, and thus, should at least be able to stall enough drives to keep this contest reasonably competitive. Expect a low-scoring affair between these two division rivals who are extremely familiar with one another.
PICK: Under 54
Image Credit: Imagn