Chargers vs. Jaguars Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Chargers vs. Jaguars Odds
| Chargers Odds | -2 |
| Jaguars Odds | +2 |
| Over/Under | 47.5 |
| Date | Sat, Jan. 14 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | NBC |
On Saturday, the Los Angeles Chargers and Jacksonville Jaguars will meet at TIAA Bank Field in the wild-card round of the NFL playoffs. During the regular season, the Chargers finished second in the AFC West division with a 10-7 record. The Jaguars won the final five games on their schedule, resurrecting themselves from a 4-8 start to clinch their first AFC South division title since 2017. In this matchup, oddsmakers are anticipating a tightly-contested affair, pricing Los Angeles as 2-point road favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Los Angeles Chargers
Mike Williams OUT
After initially being listed as questionable with a back contusion, wide receiver Mike Williams has been downgraded to out for Saturday’s action after further testing revealed a small fracture.
Williams’ absence is a tremendous blow to the Los Angeles passing attack. According to Daniel Popper, when both Williams and Keenan Allen are on the field at the same time this year, Herbert is tied for third among all qualified signal callers in EPA per dropback. When only Allen is on the field, Herbert regresses to 25th among qualified quarterbacks in this metric.
Need to get off of the field on 3rd down
During the regular season, the Chargers were worse than league average in forcing punts on 3rd down. On Saturday, they will face a difficult challenge against a team that has done a masterful job setting up third-and-short in recent months. Per Daniel Popper, Jacksonville faced an average distance to gain on third down of 6.2 yards across their final nine games, which ranked seventh-best in the NFL in that span.
Key to defending Trevor Lawrence
Per Pro Football Focus, Trevor Lawrence had a 17-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio, 75.4% completion rate, and ranked eighth out of 25 qualified signal callers in passing grade when getting the ball out of his hand in less than 2.5 seconds. When forced to hold on to the ball for more than 2.5 seconds, Lawrence had an 8-to-5 touchdown to interception ratio, 52.8% completion rate, and ranked 21st out of 25 players at his position in passing grade.
On these timing metrics, Lawrence grades relatively similar to Tua Tagovailoa, whom the Chargers successfully used press coverage against during a Week 14 win. Tagovailoa had the fourth-quickest average release in the NFL this season, with Lawrence ranking third. In Week 14, the Chargers forced Tagovailoa to hold the ball for, on average, 2.76 seconds – leading to only 17 points for the Miami Dolphins in the loss.
This season, the Jaguars have scored 24 points or more in six of eight games when Lawrence had had an average time-to-throw of less than 2.5 seconds. In games that Lawrence had an average time-to-throw of greater than 2.5 seconds, Jacksonville scored more than 22 points only twice in nine games – including five games of 20 points or less.
Expect Los Angeles to press Jacksonville’s receivers at the line of scrimmage in an effort to disrupt the rhythm and timing of Lawrence.
Key injury news
Left tackle Rashawn Slater remains out for the wild-card round. Per Pro Football Focus, Slater allowed only four sacks on 752 pass blocking snaps as a rookie, making him one of the premier blind-side protectors in the NFL. He has not played since Week 3 this season.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence leading by example
Despite dealing with a toe injury during the final five games of the season, Lawrence performed at an elite-level down the stretch. Following Jacksonville’s Week 11 bye, the offense ranked 10th in EPA overall and sixth in dropback EPA. In that span, Lawrence posted a 12-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and had three games with more than 300 passing yards.
Still, he is a young quarterback that still has room to grow. Lawrence led the NFL in EPA per dropback against man coverage in 2022, per Daniel Popper. He was far less dominant against zone coverage, a concern for Jaguars fans against a Chargers team that is among the best in the league in Cover 2, Cover 3, and Cover 6 variations.
Pederson maximizing offensive value
The Jaguars’ offense lacks a clear-cut top option in the passing game, which has made this offense difficult to defend. Head coach Doug Pederson has done a masterful job using his players in positions that maximize the possibility of success on any given play. Contrary to most teams that have a designated slot receiver, Jacksonville has used Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Evan Engram, and Marvin Jones Jr. for at least 97 snaps each in the slot this fall.
Elite defense
During the final seven games of the regular season, Jacksonville’s defense ranked sixth in EPA overall, 11th in dropback EPA, and sixth in rush EPA. However, it is worth noting that three of those contests came against severely-inhibited offenses across the final three weeks of the campaign. From Week 12 to Week 15, this unit allowed 27 points to the Baltimore Ravens, 40 points to the Detroit Lions, 22 points to the Tennessee Titans, and 34 points to the Dallas Cowboys.
Key injury news
Edge defender Dawuane Smoot was placed on injured reserve following Week 16. In 15 games played this fall, he was second on the team with five sacks and graded significantly better than league average as a pass rusher, per Pro Football Focus.
Chargers vs. Jaguars – Picks & Predictions
Despite the fact that the Los Angeles Chargers will be without wide receiver Mike Williams and starting left tackle Rashawn Slater, this team has enough talent to get the job done on Saturday. The Chargers’ defense excels in zone coverage, against which Trevor Lawrence has experienced difficulties this year. Los Angeles has also proven themselves capable of disrupting the rhythm and timing of offenses that try to get the ball out of their quarterbacks’ hands quickly. Expect a competitive game, but trust Justin Herbert and company to advance to the next round.
PICK: Chargers ML (-135, Wynn)
Image Credit: Imagn