NFL DFS Showdown Lineup Optimizer Values: Chargers-Jets DraftKings Picks
NFL Showdown season continues with the Chargers at Jets on Monday Night Football. Our expert analysts are breaking down DraftKings Showdown picks with our in-house NFL DFS lineup optimizer. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium for full access to our NFL lineup optimizer and fantasy football projections all season long.
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The 4-3 Jets play host to the 3-4 Chargers in a game with a lot on the line, as both teams are fighting for a wild card spot, and with a win, the Jets would actually be within striking distance of the Dolphins for the division. Josh Palmer will be out with a knee injury so it’s a huge opportunity for rookie Quentin Johnston to build on his strong performance last week, and Jalen Guyton will be available to help at WR. Allen Lazard is active while Randall Cobb remains inactive.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Chargers at Jets Week 9
Currently, this game is sitting at a 39.5 total, with the Chargers favored by 3.5 points. Each defense is great at one thing and not so great at the other, as the Chargers have the 32nd-ranked pass defense and 9th-ranked rush defense, while the Jets have the 31st-ranked rush defense and the 6th-ranked pass defense. On paper, this should be a big Austin Ekeler and Garrett Wilson game, especially if the projected game script goes to plan with the Chargers leading most of the time and the Jets having to throw more.
Quarterback
Justin Herbert ($11,800) has gone for 20+ FP in all but one game this season, but without another top WR (Palmer) facing a Jets defense allowing under 185 pass yards/game, there’s a good chance we get an average performance from Herbert tonight. I still think we should try to fit him in our cash game lineup as he’s more likely to score more FP than Zach Wilson and pretty much every optimal showdown lineup has at least one QB, but I won’t be using him in the captain spot outside of GPPs.
Zach Wilson ($8,800) is super cheap for a QB playing at home against one of the worst statistical pass defenses in the NFL, but he’s still struggled to put up big numbers in great matchups like the Giants and Broncos recently where he went for under 15 FP in each, so he’s not a must play in cash games for me. I would absolutely have exposure to him in GPPs and even as a captain in some lineups if you’re doing MME (mass multi-entry), but I think jamming in as many skill players from this game as possible is the way to go.
Running Back
Austin Ekeler ($12,000) had a great game as expected against the Bears last week, and tonight I’m expecting the same against a Jets defense allowing 145 rush yards/game. He’s a priority cash game play and my favorite player to use in the captain spot, as his receiving ability gives him a great floor, and this rushing matchup is just too good for me not to spend up on him.
Breece Hall ($10,400) brings a similar skill set and is another top cash game play in my opinion, as he too has big-time receiving upside along with a shot at a house-call TD on pretty much every carry. The Chargers have been solid against the run, allowing under 100 rush yards/game, but Hall is matchup-proof to me, and his usage in the passing game will keep him involved regardless of game script.
Wide Receiver
Garrett Wilson ($9,600) is about $2k underpriced, and along with Hall is a cash game priority for the Jets. He’s seen 12+ targets in three of the last four games and draws one of the best matchups for a WR in the NFL as the Chargers are allowing 297.4 pass yards/game. If you need the extra salary in cash games I don’t mind using him in the captain spot over Ekeler, as there is as good a chance as anyone in this game that he’s the highest-scoring player. Lazard is just a GPP option at $5,200.
Keenan Allen ($11,600) should see 10+ targets with Palmer out, and he easily could be the highest-scoring player tonight if he can find the endzone a couple times, but if we’re already spending on Ekeler, Hall, and Wilson and using one of them in the captain spot, it’s going to be hard to find a spot for Allen in cash games, especially if you use one of the QBs as well. If we add in the fact that it’s not a great matchup, plus the likelihood the Jets defense will focus on Allen with Palmer out of the picture, I think using that much salary on other guys is the way to go in your main build.
The Chargers WR I would be targeting in cash games is Quentin Johnston ($3,600), as his price is not high enough for a WR2 that should have a floor comparable to last game in which he had a 5-50 line on 6 targets, and now has less competition with Palmer out. Things should be more open for Johnston as well, with Allen and Ekeler likely drawing way more attention from the defense, so even though he will be highly owned, he is by far the best flex play under $4k and is a priority in order to fit in the higher priced skill players.
Tight End
I wish Gerald Everett ($5,600) was a bit cheaper as he’s still very TD dependent seeing about 4 targets/game, and the emergence of Parham last week could cause an even closer split in their workloads tonight. Both Everett and Parham are just GPP plays for me, and for the Jets, I’d only consider Tyler Conklin ($3,000) in cash games if you absolutely need to fill a final flex spot in his price range.
Defense / Special Teams
I’m not interested in either defense outside of GPPs, but both Cameron Dicker ($4,600) and Greg Zuerlein ($4,400) are cheap enough to be cash game consideration for a final flex spot or two.
Monday Night Football NFL DFS Strategy
I think either a 4-2 Chargers heavy build or a 3-3 build is the way to go in cash games, with either Austin Ekeler or Garrett Wilson in the captain spot, and at least two of Johnston, Zuerlein, and Dicker for value.
DraftKings DFS Showdown Rankings
1. Austin Ekeler – A cash game must play and my favorite player to use in the captain spot. It’s a fantastic matchup for someone with his upside and high floor.
2. Garrett Wilson – Way too cheap given the matchup and target share. A great captain alternative to Ekeler if you need the extra salary.
3. Quentin Johnston – We’ll rarely get to play a WR2 with his upside for just $3,600. Best value play for cash games.
4. Breece Hall – I really think he’s a better play than both QBs in cash games, and even if he doesn’t produce a solid YPC, he just needs one long TD to pay off.
5. Both Kickers – For around $4.5k each I think using at least one kicker in cash games is the way to go in order to fit in at least three of the expensive players.
NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer for Monday Night Football
Check out LineupHQ for this Showdown slate! It’s your one-stop shop for all of the tools you need to build and edit multiple lineups with one click, such as excluding certain players, adjusting your ownership and stack preferences, and doing any mass late-swap edits.
Also make sure to check out RG’s brand new SimLabs tool for creating lineups based on game simulations and your custom settings!