2023 Charles Schwab Challenge: Golf Betting Preview & Breakdown

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2023-05-23 00:51:30

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down golf betting tips for the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge. Use the PrizePicks referral code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf entries today!

Brooks Koepka reached the peak of the golf mountain this past weekend — capturing his third PGA Championship on fifth major championship. Brooks was nails down the stretch and closed the door on any discussion about whether talent LIV golfers can still compete with the PGA Tour’s finest. Also, not sure if you followed any social media over the weekend, but Michael Block happened. He’s in the field. Let’s cull through betting odds before talking about Michael Block and the golf course for this year’s Charles Schwab Challenge.

2023 Charles Schwab Challenge at BetMGM Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – May 22nd – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of The Charles Schwab Challenge:

• 2022 – Sam Burns (-9)
• 2021 – Jason Kokrak (-15)
• 2020 – Daniel Berger (-15)
• 2019 – Kevin Na (-13)

The field for the Charles Schwab Challenge will be 120 golfers with 65 players and ties making the weekend. While we will see a pretty loaded field, Michael Block is clearly the headliner after capturing the hearts of well, frankly, everyone at the PGA Championship. Sam Burns is back to defend his championship from 2022 after shooting +100 at Oak Hill while Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth, Max Homa, and Viktor Hovland will vie for a tournament victory.

Notably, the lack of LIV golfers weakening the field will be a common thread as we approach our next major. While LIV was only represented by 18 golfers at the PGA Championship, the quality of the small contingent really brings extra firepower to the field. Instead, we will see a less potent lineup at the bottom of the odds board.

Will we have another Block party? I sure hope so, but let’s get to the course before getting into some other golfers to watch.

2023 Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Preview

• Course: Colonial CC
• Date: May 25 – 28
• Par: 70
• Yardage: 7,209
• Greens: Bentgrass

A classical design, Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas is available for any type of golfer. Shorter than advertised at 7,200 yards, Colonial CC requires precision off-the-tee and dialing in your approaches. With winners like Sam Burns, Jason Kokrak, and… Kevin Na… we notice that any type of golfer can win. Golfers need to be precise and of course, hole putts.

The distance of the course is captured by long Par 3’s and a robustly long Par 5 – 11th. The 11th hole, sitting above 625 yards, will likely force many layups. That said, because of the combined length in these five holes, nine Par 4’s are sub-450 yards. Length is a luxury at this venue. Don’t be shocked if golfers club down to find specific landing areas over smashing the golf ball.

While the greens are particularly small (bottom 11 on tour), we shouldn’t be concerned with SG: ARG. While up-and-downs will always help preserve a low score, if your golfers are not attacking flags, they aren’t winning the tournament. SG: Approach and Putting are paramount at this course. We need to see who is trending on both of those areas prior to building a card.

The first hole is the only true must-birdie hole on the course. The only hole with a birdie rate over 30%, this hole must be birdied to hoist a trophy on Sunday.

Finally, because of so many shorter Par 4’s and the really long Par 5, we need to target players locked in with their wedges. Proximity from 100-125 yards is pretty important at this course. We must include that in our stat model.

We have struggled as of late. Can we pick ourselves up off the mat before the season ends? Let’s take a look at a few golfers who can help us get unstuck.

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Golfers To Watch This Week

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Viktor Hovland +1600

Viktor, Viktor, Viktor… so, so very close. Barring an incredibly bad shot into a bunker and bad break to boot, Viktor Hovland would have kept Brooks Koepka under pressure until the 18th hole of the PGA Championship. Vik is quietly putting together quite the resume at major championships and could be knocking at the door.

That said, before the next major, Hovland checks in at Colonial for the Charles Schwab Challenge. He has two Top 30 finishes in two starts and possesses the skill set we want at this event. Approach game? Dialed. Vik is 6th in approach over his last 36 rounds. Proximity from 100-125 yards? Lock it in. Hovland sits in second position.

Given his current form, Hovland cannot be ignored at the top of the board. If we are going short, Hovland makes sense at the top of our card.

Rickie Fowler +3000

Rickie struggled at the PGA Championship. That’s okay. Nearly everyone struggled at Oak Hill. Assuming the weather is fine, Rickie plays at a course suited to his rejuvenated skill-set. Approach and putting? Rickie has had that in spades as of late. Will Rickie break through again?

Prior to his missed cut, Fowler finished inside the top 20 in 7 of 8 events. That’s remarkable consistency for a guy who struggled for quite some time, nearly losing status on tour. His history at the Charles Schwab is similar to his recent history on tour. He had his struggles over the last couple of season but in his top form played very well, including a top five.

Rickie is on the precipice of winning a tournament again. He feels like a must-bet every week until this happens.

Denny McCarthy +5000

Putting? Fourth in the field this week, Denny McCarthy has quietly played very well as of late. With five consecutive made cuts, McCarthy won’t be overmatched by length at Colonial Country Club.

McCarthy finished 8th at the Wells Fargo to peak in his recent stretch of good form. He gained on approach at all but one of those events — the Wells Fargo. To make up for his struggle with his irons, McCarthy got hot and gained north of eight strokes on the green. He has that kind of putter. If McCarthy can just gain marginally at this course, he is right there if the flat stick is working. He is an interesting one-and-done selection in a week where the prize pool will allow for mistakes. I think he merits an outright and some top finisher consideration at this price.

Ben Martin +15000

At the bottom of the odds board, we find Ben Martin. Martin struggled in his last event at the Wells Fargo but was in strong form ahead of the missed cut. Martin posses a very nice history at the Charles Schwab Challenge.

He checks most of the boxes we mentioned in our course preview — sitting in the top twenty in our main categories except putting. He has never missed a cut at this event and has made the top forty in all but one start. At odds this high, Martin makes for an interesting Top 40 play or top finisher ladder play. We can sprinkle a bit on his outright but we should shop around looking for his highest odds when top finishers bets are released.

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.

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