Chiefs vs. Broncos Showdown NFL DFS Lineup Advice for DraftKings & FanDuel
Week 6 of the NFL season kicks off an AFC West showdown as the Broncos travel to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs in Arrowhead. The Denver defense has been terrible this season, allowing the most yards and points per game in the NFL, both by wide margins. It’s no surprise to see the Chiefs favored by 10.5 points here, and the game total has drifted down from over 50 points to currently sit at 46.5. Travis Kelce and Javonte Williams have dealt with injuries in the past week but are currently expected to play, while TE Greg Dulcich is expected to be activated for Denver and could see his first action since Week 1.
With the context of the game favoring the Chiefs so heavily we’re seeing the pricing, projections, and ownership all leaning heavily towards Kansas City players with Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce leading the way, and Isiah Pacheco not far behind. The single-game format is one that pays us to be different with our lineups, however, so it’s worth figuring out some ways that we can differentiate ourselves in DFS contests tonight. The moneyline on this game (-600 in favor of the Chiefs, Denver +450) is giving the Broncos less than 20% implied odds of pulling off the upset, but Denver players are still projecting for lower ownership than I would expect, and there is some usage uncertainty where we can try to get an edge on the field.
Chiefs vs. Broncos Showdown DFS Lineup Advice
How I Plan to Beat the Field
With a lopsided line in favor of the Chiefs here, my plan to beat the field will rely heavily on lineup construction and ownership rather than taking a heavy stance on a game script (Denver beating the Chiefs) that isn’t all that likely to come to fruition. Even if Kansas City dominates this game, their scoring could be concentrated on one player or just come from unexpected sources. With the ownership concentrating around Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, I’ll aim to be under the field on those two players – both in the CPT/MVP spots and the Flex positions – and over the field on just about everyone else.
One way I could see this game play out is that Kansas City dominates through the ground game and just doesn’t feel the need to be as pass-heavy as they have been so far this season. Particularly with Travis Kelce dealing with an ankle injury suffered during the game last week, the team could decide to run both Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon more. If one of the running backs gets the early touchdown and Denver isn’t able to respond on the road, they could add even more work on the ground as the Chiefs look to shorten the game.
Another way this game could play out is that the Chiefs keep passing like they normally do, but the touchdowns fall in the hands of someone other than Travis Kelce. There are so many Kansas City receivers that get work behind Travis Kelce – Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, Justin Watson, Rashee Rice, even Justyn Ross – that it’s tempting just to click Kelce’s name and move on. I’ll aim to embrace the uncertainty by being over the field on the receivers other than Kelce.
I don’t plan to fade Mahomes and Kelce entirely, but I will aim to make sure my rosters that feature those players have some kind of differentiation to limit duplication. I’ll look into some creative lineup rules here – maybe forcing Mahomes CPT/MVP rosters to have two KC receivers other than Travis Kelce, or forcing a Broncos receiver into each of those lineups to get different.
Single-Game Rule I’m Willing to Break
While we’ll want to consider the scoring on each site and set some rules in LineupHQ if we’re building multiple lineups, setting our rules too strictly can prevent us from getting to winning lineups. Each week, I’ll aim to hit on “rules that can be broken” for our lineups.
While we’ll want to consider the scoring on each site and set some rules in LineupHQ if we’re building multiple lineups, setting our rules too strictly can prevent us from getting to winning lineups. Each week, I’ll aim to hit on “rules that can be broken” for our lineups.
I touched on this above, but with Mahomes likely to see very high ownership in the CPT/MVP spot, I think it will be very important to make those rosters as different from the field in other spots as possible. Rather than pairing Mahomes CPT/MVP lineups with two receivers in the flex spot, I’ll consider pairing Mahomes MVP/CPT lineups with at least two non-Travis Kelce pass-catchers from the Chiefs or at least one Broncos wide receiver. Kelce is likely to see the second-highest ownership on the slate (after Mahomes), and while he is certainly capable of breaking the slate open, he needs a very big game to pay off his $14,000 price tag on FanDuel and $11,000 price on DraftKings. With Kelce already missing Week 1 and now nursing an ankle injury, it makes sense for the Chiefs to rely less on their star tight end, especially if they are able to take a big lead in this game.
DraftKings Strategy
The first key difference between DraftKings versus FanDuel is the salary multiplier for the Captain position. It’s not just that a Captain’s fantasy points get the 1.5x multiplier, but his salary counts 1.5x against our cap as well. The next important consideration is the difference in the scoring rules. DraftKings gives a full point per reception instead of a half point on FanDuel, making receivers and pass-catching running backs ideal for the DraftKings format.
With the full point per reception on DraftKings and their salary structure that goes much lower than FanDuel, I’ll be even more likely to select peripheral KC offensive players for my lineups on DK. Skyy Moore, Jerick McKinnon, Noah Gray, Kadarius Toney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Watson, and Justyn Ross are all priced cheaper than the Chiefs defense, and all but Moore and McKinnon are cheaper than the Chiefs kicker, Harrison Butker. Gray is a particularly interesting play if the Chiefs decide to limit Kelce at all, and McKinnon could see some work in the shorter passing game if the wind conditions in this game limit long passes.
On the Denver side, Russell Wilson makes for a more appealing play on DraftKings where he is $1400 cheaper than Travis Kelce at just $9600. Wilson has hit at least 18 DK points in four of his five games, and while the Broncos have a lower implied point total at just 18.0 points, Wilson could be passing more if the Chiefs are able to pull out to an early lead.
FanDuel Strategy
The flip side to the DraftKings scoring is the half-point awarded for receptions on FanDuel and no salary multiplier in the MVP position. This can make it very difficult to get away from the highest projected player at the MVP spot but makes it critical to have some intelligent differentiation in the AnyFLEX spots.
One dynamic that differentiates the sites even further is the extreme value plays you can find on DraftKings, which make it a bit easier to fit Mahomes and Kelce into the same lineup – on FanDuel, we don’t have that luxury. While the relative salary cap used for a Mahomes/Kelce pairing on FanDuel (53% of the salary cap) is higher than DraftKings (48%), assuming they are both used in the flex, on DK, we have value options priced down at $200 that can be used to get them on the same lineup. On FanDuel, that pricing stops at $5,000, with none of the players at that price even a guarantee to put up fantasy points, which makes it far less likely I’ll be using that pairing extensively on FanDuel.
One player who stands out as a value on FanDuel compared to DraftKings is Denver wide receiver Jerry Jeudy, who is $500 cheaper than his teammate Courtland Sutton at $11,000 on FD. Jeudy is more expensive than Sutton on DK, and he projects better than Sutton on both sites.
While this game looks like a mismatch on paper, it should be a fun one to watch with the Chiefs talented offense facing the Broncos defense, and Thursday surprises are always on the table. Good luck to everyone tonight and enjoy!