Chiefs vs. Lions Showdown NFL DFS Lineup Advice for DraftKings & FanDuel
It’s been a long offseason, but we’re ready to kick off Week 1 of the NFL season with the Detroit Lions traveling to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. This will be one of the biggest Single-Game/Showdown slates of the year for DFS, and I’m here with some quick lineup advice on how to get an edge on the field in our FanDuel and DraftKings single-game entries.
The big news for this game as of Thursday morning is the uncertain status of Travis Kelce, the biggest piece of the Chiefs offense not named Patrick Mahomes. Kelce’s status will have a huge impact on this game. Since word of his injury broke, the line on this game has dropped a point in favor of Detroit, from KC -6.5 to KC -5.5, and the game total has dropped a full two points, from a high of 54.5 to where it sits as of Thursday morning (52.5).
Hopefully we get official word on Kelce in plenty of time to set our lineups for Thursday night, but whenever we get the news, RotoGrinders will have updated content and live pre-lock shows leading up to game time for this NFL kickoff.
Chiefs vs. Lions Showdown Lineup Advice
How I Plan to Beat the Field
Even before Kelce got injured at practice on Tuesday, I wrote in the Expert Survey that I was skeptical of both the line and the total, thinking that Detroit held a better chance than oddsmakers were giving them, specifically by trying to run the ball and keep Patrick Mahomes off the field:
The total on this game is at least 3 points higher than every other game on the board this week, so it should be high-scoring, but it wouldn’t surprise me if it ends up being a bit lower-scoring (and closer) than the line indicates. Detroit invested in the RB position in both the draft (with Jahmyr Gibbs) and in free agency (with David Montgomery), and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them try to slow the game down with the running game to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field.
Now if Kelce were to miss this game, Noah Gray would instantly vault to the top of the point-per-dollar rankings on both sites, with his value price of $5,500 on FanDuel and $2,400 on DraftKings. The other peripheral pieces for Kansas City would also be very intriguing for me, but Gray will likely to see extreme ownership. Kadarius Toney has been dealing with his own injuries, however, he practiced in full on Wednesday and would likely have more pass opportunities should Kelce miss. Jerick McKinnon, who I was also high on in the Expert Survey, could also see additional usage and may receive some of the red zone looks that would otherwise go to Kelce.
Beyond finding the lower-owned Chiefs players that could give our lineups a boost, another strategic edge could be going overweight on the Lions players now that this game could be closer. Most Detroit ownership should condense around Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs, with people angling to get a piece of the Lions passing game. However, aiming to be overweight on David Montgomery could make more sense if the Lions are trying to keep the Chiefs off the field.
As always with a high total game that has multiple expensive pieces we’re trying to fit in, I’m high on the kickers on both teams. Harrison Butker and Riley Patterson are both affordable and could see plenty of action if either of these teams stall in the red zone.
Single-Game Rule I’m Willing to Break
Lineup construction can be extremely important for DFS single-game contests, and we’ll usually want our lineups to tell a practical story about how we see the game playing out. This means setting some rules in LineupHQ if we’re building multiple lineups, such as always pairing our QB in the MVP/CPT spot with a receiver in the flex spots, or avoiding two RBs from the same team. Setting our rules too strictly can prevent us from getting to unique lineups, however, so I’ll aim to hit each week on a “rule that can be broken” for our lineups.
This week, I’m flexible on pairing a WR or TE used in the MVP/CPT spot with his QB in one of the flex positions. It might seem like a necessity to have Patrick Mahomes or Jared Goff in one of our utility spots if we’re using Kadarius Toney or Amon-Ra St. Brown at the top position, but Mahomes in particular is expensive and likely to see extreme ownership. Goff, on the other hand, may not rack up enough points to multiple receivers if we’re already using his leading receiver as the MVP or Captain.
DraftKings Strategy
The first key difference for DraftKings versus FanDuel is the salary multiplier for the Captain position. It’s not just that a Captain’s fantasy points get the 1.5x multiplier, but his salary counts 1.5x against our cap as well. The next important consideration is the difference in the scoring rules. DraftKings gives a full point per reception instead of a half point on FanDuel, making receivers and pass-catching running backs ideal for the DraftKings format.
One player I’m likely to be heavier on for the DraftKings format is Jerick McKinnon on the Chiefs. At just $5,600 on DK, his salary is a still-affordable $8,400 in the Captain spot, and the Kansas City RB had 56 receptions (along with 9 receiving TDs) last season.
FanDuel Strategy
The flip side to the DraftKings scoring is the half-point awarded for receptions on FanDuel and no salary multiplier in the MVP position. This can make it very difficult to get away from the highest projected player at the MVP spot but makes it critical to have some intelligent differentiation in the AnyFLEX spots.
I’ll have plenty of Mahomes in the MVP spot on FanDuel, but I’ll aim to get a bit different by going overweight David Montgomery in the flex spots. With only a half point per reception, Montgomery should score relatively well on FanDuel if he can find the end zone. As always on FanDuel, you may want to consider leaving $500 or more of salary on the table to avoid some duplication with your lineups.
It’s great to have regular-season NFL back in our lives and even better with the huge single-game DFS contests that are out there for the kickoff to this season. Good luck to everyone tonight!