Chiefs vs. Chargers Odds, Preview, Picks for Thursday Night Football
Chiefs vs. Chargers Odds
| Chiefs Odds | +3 |
| Chargers Odds | -3. |
| Over/Under | 43.5 |
| Date | Thursday, Dec 16. |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX/NFL Network |
The Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Chargers will open Week 15 of the NFL season on Thursday evening at Sofi Stadium. Entering play, these two teams are separated by only one game in the AFC West standings. Following a disappointing start to the campaign, Kansas City has won six straight games. Los Angeles has won back-to-back contests as improved health propels their playoff push. Oddsmakers are anticipating a tightly-contested matchup between these two teams trying to improve their postseason chances, pricing the Chiefs as a field goal favorite on the spread.
Chiefs -3
Per Pro Football Focus, Patrick Mahomes has graded as only the 21st ranked quarterback amongst 37 qualifying players at his position. His poor play has been especially perplexing, considering that he has one of the best offensive lines in the game, in addition to having elite weapons in Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill as his top pass-catching options. Removing two strong performances against the hapless Las Vegas Raiders secondary unit, Mahomes has thrown only six touchdowns against eight interceptions in his last seven trips to the field. Against a respectable Chargers defense, Mahomes is once again the biggest question mark for an otherwise surging offensive attack. Per PrizePicks, his passing yards prop is currently over/under 271.5 yards.
Cornerback L’Jarius Sneed and linebacker Willie Gay have both been ruled out for Thursday’s action. Neither Sneed nor Gay have been sensational this year, making it unlikely that their absences will have a dramatic impact on this affair. Kansas City’s pass defense has improved tremendously in recent weeks, which has greatly improved their season long numbers as a unit. Still, this is a defense that is extremely vulnerable on the ground–permitting 4.6 yards-per-carry this fall.
Chargers +3
The Chargers appear to be trending towards having all of their key players for this pivotal divisional battle on Thursday. Though running back Austin Ekeler, safeties Alohi Gilman and Derwin James Jr., and cornerback Asante Samuel Jr. each logged only a limited practice on Wednesday, all of them seem closer to probable than to doubtful. Keenan Allen was also activated off of the COVID-19 list ahead of this matchup.
Justin Herbert has been outstanding in 2021, and is seemingly only getting better as the season progresses. The young signal caller ranks 4th in the NFL in passing yards, 3rd in passing touchdowns, and 2nd in QBR this year. In Herbert’s last four games he has thrown for at least 303 yards three times, totaling 11 touchdowns against only four interceptions. His passing prop is over/under 279.5 yards at PrizePicks, eight yards higher than Mahomes’. Pass protection remains somewhat of a concern for this offensive attack, but bettors would be hard pressed to find a better collection of skill position players on one roster. Expect Los Angeles to have a strong night against an exploitable Kansas City defense.
The Chargers’ defense is similar to the Chiefs in the sense that they struggle against the run. Only the Pittsburgh Steelers are allowing more yards-per-carry on the ground this fall. Yet, Los Angeles has been relatively strong against the pass, allowing opposing quarterbacks to post only an 88.5 passer rating in 13 games. This defense also ranks 9th-best in the NFL in yards-per-pass-attempt. This is a secondary unit capable of causing problems for Mahomes in this one. When these two teams met in Week 3, Mahomes was intercepted twice and held to a 57.7 QBR.
Thursday Night Football Prediction
In Week 3, the Chiefs and Chargers totaled 54 points. As of this writing, the consensus price on the market is 52.5. Since their last meeting, both of these defenses have improved with the Chiefs notably holding three consecutive opponents to 9 points or less and six consecutive teams to 17 points or less. Los Angeles is likely the best offense that Kansas City has faced since November, but it would still be surprising to see many points put on the board in this one. Take the under.
PICK: Under 52.5 (-110)
Image Credit: Imagn