Christmas Day NFL Player Props: Top Predictions for 12/25
What can we expect on Wednesday from Jaylen Warren, Derrick Henry, and Dalton Schultz? Follow along as our NFL betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NFL prop bets for Wednesday, December 25, 2024. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more football props, at ScoresAndOdds.
In Week 17, NFL fans will be treated to a rare edition of Wednesday football, with a Netflix double-header on tap to celebrate Christmas Day! The action begins at 1:00 p.m. with a potential playoff preview between the Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers. The Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans are scheduled for a 4:30 p.m. ET kickoff later in the afternoon.
If looking to wager on the player prop market for Wednesday’s 2-game NFL holiday slate, we have 3 prop leans to consider for Christmas Day!
Christmas Day – NFL Player Props
- Jaylen Warren Over/Under 20.5 Receiving Yards
- Derrick Henry Over/Under 0.5 Touchdowns
- Dalton Schultz Over/Under 36.5 Receiving Yards
Jaylen Warren UNDER 20.5 Receiving Yards (-120, Bally)
Jaylen Warren has an extremely tough matchup on Christmas Day facing a Kansas City defense that ranks 2nd in DVOA this season defending running backs as pass catchers. Per props.cash, the Chiefs haven’t allowed more than 20 receiving yards to a running back since Alexander Mattison had 29 receiving yards against them in Week 8. Warren could also see his targets reduced by the simple fact that George Pickens is expected to return to the field for the first time since Week 13. Warren has put up some solid receiving numbers of late, but 5 of his last 6 games have come against defenses that rank in the bottom-half of the league in DVOA against running backs. The lone outlier in that span, Philadelphia, held Warren to 1 reception for 3 yards. Warren could experience similar struggles on Wednesday.
Derrick Henry OVER 0.5 Touchdowns (-160, BetMGM)
Derrick Henry scored a touchdown in each of Baltimore’s first 11 games this season, but has now been held out of the end zone in 4 consecutive contests entering Christmas Day. The good news is that Henry’s recent drought has nothing to do with diminishing talent or a change in role. Since Week 12, Henry has received 12 of the 15 red zone attempts that have gone to the running back position, and he’s the only Baltimore running back to receive a goal-line carry in that span. The Ravens simply haven’t been running many plays in the red zone. That could change on Christmas Day, with Baltimore traveling to face a Houston defense that has multiple starters on injured reserve and is playing on a short week. This is good value for one of the league’s most talented running backs.
Dalton Schultz OVER 36.5 Receiving Yards (-113, FanDuel)
Tank Dell has only missed 1 game this season, and it was when WR Stefon Diggs was still healthy, so it’s difficult to ascertain exactly how Houston’s passing game will net out on Wednesday given the lack of a sample to analyze. Still, it stands to reason that TE Dalton Schultz could be in line for an expanded workload. Schultz tied a season high with 8 targets this past weekend against the Chiefs, a game in which Dell left early due to injury. In Week 4 against the Jaguars with Dell out, Schultz had 5 targets and ended the day with 34 receiving yards. Baltimore’s defense ranks only 22nd in DVOA against opposing tight ends this season, which could lead to Schultz getting a few extra looks, especially if Houston is playing from behind.
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