Bengals vs. Ravens Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Ravens vs. Bengals Odds
| Bengals Odds | +3 |
| Ravens Odds | -3 |
| Over/Under | 47.5 |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 9 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. |
| TV | NBC |
This evening’s edition of Sunday Night Football will feature Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals traveling to take on Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens in a pivotal AFC North showdown. Entering play, both teams are 2-2, with the winner of tonight’s matchup claiming sole possession of first place in the division after the Cleveland Browns lost earlier this afternoon. Oddsmakers are expecting a tightly-contested primetime affair, pricing the Ravens as 3-point home favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Cincinnati Bengals
Coming off of a surprise run to the Super Bowl, Joe Burrow and company struggled out of the gate – losing their season opener at home to the hapless Pittsburgh Steelers before getting upset on the road against the Dallas Cowboys. In Week 3, the Bengals took care of business against the New York Jets, and then took advantage of an injury-depleted Miami Dolphins team on a short week last Thursday. During their first two contests, Cincinnati was the worst team in the entire NFL on first down – ranking 32nd in EPA/play on offense. Concerningly, this group did not improve much in their wins – ranking 30th in first down EPA/play across the last two weeks. In 2021, the Bengals were 6th in the league in first down EPA/play, with five other playoff teams in the top-seven in this category. Burrow and company will need to improve in this area if they want to return to their production levels from last fall.
If not for a borderline elite defense, Cincinnati could be in a more difficult position in the standings heading into October. The Bengals enter play ranked 7th in opponent yards-per-carry on the ground and 9th in opponent passing yards-per-attempt through the air. Outside of Eli Apple, the secondary unit has stifled opponents so far in 2022. If this group can slow down Lamar Jackson through the air on Sunday, the lack of a consistent run attack could make life extremely difficult for Baltimore to put points on the board.
Baltimore Ravens
In contrast to their division opponents in this matchup, the Ravens have had no trouble on early downs – leading the league in 1st down EPA/play through four games. Lamar Jackson enters play in Week 5 as the league leader in passing touchdowns with 11, in addition to scoring twice on the ground during the month of September. The larger issue for the Baltimore offense has been a lack of help around their star signal caller. Jackson has nearly double the number of rushing attempts of any other player on the Ravens’ roster, and has more rushing yards by himself than every other member of the roster combined.
Defensively, there have been few teams worse than Baltimore early in the year. After matchups against the New York Jets, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, and Buffalo Bills – the Ravens rank 25th in EPA/play overall, ranking worse than the 50th percentile in nearly every important defensive metric through the air and on the ground. This unit has been particularly poor against the run, allowing 5.0 yards-per-carry so far this fall. Marcus Peters is listed as questionable for this contest. His absence would be a tremendous blow to an already struggling secondary unit.
Bengals vs. Ravens Picks & Predictions
Through four games, the Cincinnati Bengals rank 2nd in plays per game, averaging 72.5 snaps per contest. The Baltimore Ravens are on the opposite end of the spectrum, ranking 27th in plays per game, averaging 57.5 snaps through the first month of regular season action. Instead of trying to decipher how the pace of play will unfold tonight, bettors should turn their attention towards the spread. The Bengals have been dominant on third-down this year, ranking 4th in conversion rate in such situations. If Cincinnati can continue to move the chains effectively, they should be able to put points on the board in this matchup. Take their team to go over the market number in this spot.
PICK: Bengals Team Total – Over 22.5 points (-115 via DraftKings)
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