Bengals vs. Titans Odds, Picks, and Prediction

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2022-11-26 18:08:39

Bengals vs. Titans Odds

On Sunday afternoon, Joe Burrow and the surging Cincinnati Bengals will travel to Nashville to battle Ryan Tannehill and the Tennessee Titans. Following an 0-2 start to the campaign, the Bengals enter Week 12 only one game behind the Baltimore Ravens for first place in the AFC North division standings. The Titans have won seven of their last eight contests, with their only loss in that span coming on the road in overtime to the Kansas City Chiefs. In this matchup, oddsmakers are anticipating a closely-contested affair, pricing Cincinnati as 2.5-point road favorites on the spread.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.

Cincinnati Bengals

Ja’Marr Chase has not played since Week 7 against the Atlanta Falcons, but his absence has not had a major impact on the Bengals’ offense during that stretch. Since Week 8, Cincinnati’s offense ranks 4th in EPA/play overall, with a strong balance of success through air and on the ground. Chase nearing a return after logging a limited participation in the final practice of the week can only be seen as added value for an offense that is already playing extremely well. Whether or not Chase is on the field on Sunday, Burrow and company are more than capable of putting points on the board, evident by the fact that they have scored 79 points across the last two weeks with Chase on the sidelines.

The most notable injury news for the Bengals this weekend is the return of defensive tackle D.J. Reader, who logged a full participation in the final practice of the week and is poised to return to the field this weekend. From Week 1 to Week 3, with Reader on the field, the Bengals ranked 14th in Rush EPA/play and allowed only 258 rushing yards on 69 attempts (3.7 yards-per-carry). From Week 4 to Week 11, with Reader off of the field, Cincinnati’s defense ranked 27th in Rush EPA/play and allowed 913 rushing yards on 199 attempts (4.6 yards-per-carry). The return of Reader should be a significant boost for this unit as they attempt to slow down Derrick Henry on Sunday. When these two teams met in the playoffs last year, Reader had two tackles-for-loss, and the Bengals held Henry to only 62 rushing yards on 20 attempts (3.1 yards-per-carry). Expect a much-improved Cincinnati defense in Week 12, relative to what bettors have seen over the last two months of action.

Tennessee Titans

Offensively, the Titans rank only 20th in EPA/play and 24th in points per game this fall. In eight games with Ryan Tannehill under center, Tennessee has scored 20 points, 7 points, 24 points, 24 points, 21 points, 19 points, 17 points, and 27 points – averaging only 19.9 points per game. Tannehill ranks only 17th among qualified signal callers in QBR this year, and only once has he thrown for more than 266 passing yards in a game. Running back Derrick Henry experienced a streak of five consecutive 100-plus yard rushing performances from Week 4 to Week 9, but has totaled only 140 rushing yards on 47 attempts (3.0 yards-per-carry) across his last two games. Facing a healthy Cincinnati run defense, Henry could struggle with efficiency once again, which could make life difficult for the Titans’ offense.

Per Turron Davenport, edge rusher Denico Autry and kicker Randy Bullock were both absent from practice on Friday, but cornerback Kristian Fulton was able to log a limited participation after sitting out on Wednesday. Fulton leads the Titans in pass deflections and has played nearly every snap out-wide for this secondary unit in 2022. Defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons is listed as questionable with an ankle injury, but it would be surprising to see him on the sidelines on Sunday, considering that he played in Week 11 after being listed as questionable all week – delivering a sack and five total tackles on Thursday Night Football against the Green Bay Packers. Assuming that Simmons plays, Tennessee should be able to put plenty of pressure on Joe Burrow in this matchup, with a very weak offensive line offering the young quarterback very little protection against Simmons, Teair Tart, DeMarcus Walker, and Bud Dupree.

Bengals vs. Titans – Picks & Predictions

The Bengals’ offense has played extremely well in each of their last two games, but they will have a tough test in this spot against a Titans’ defense that ranks 8th in defensive EPA/play since Week 3. Cincinnati is likely to struggle in both pass protection and on the ground, with a porous offensive line not being a recipe for success against a dominant Tennessee defensive line. The return of D.J. Reader to the defensive line for the Bengals should help this group improve exponentially against the run, which could limit the effectiveness of Derrick Henry – the man through which everything is run in the Titans offense. The under is the smart look for bettors taking action on the total here.

PICK: Under 44 (-145, DraftKings)

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