Cincinnati vs. Alabama Odds: Cotton Bowl Betting Preview, Picks & Prediction

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It took eight years, but finally a non-Power Five team will play in College Football Playoff. While the Cincinnati Bearcats are one of four remaining teams with national title aspirations, oddsmakers aren’t giving them much respect against Nick Saban and the Alabama Crimson Tide on New Year’s Eve. With just 24 hours until kickoff, oddsmakers make Alabama 13.5-point favorites over undefeated Cincinnati, and the over/under is 57.5. Now college football bettors must decide how they’ll approach the Cotton Bowl line at online sportsbooks.

Cotton Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Alabama Odds

Kickoff: Friday, Dec. 31 at 3:30 p.m. ET
Where: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
TV: ESPN
Spread: Alabama -13.5
Total: Over/Under 57.5

It’s no secret the SEC has dramatically underperformed this bowl season. The conference is a combined 0-4, with losses to Army, Texas Tech, UCF, and Houston. Might there be more disappointment in store for the SEC on New Year’s Eve, and should bettors recalibrate how they view teams like Alabama and Georgia based on the conference’s lackluster performances thus far?

Cincinnati Bearcats

Record: 13-0
Against the Spread: 9-4
Over/Under: 6-7
National Championship Odds: +1400

Led by head coach Luke Fickell and quarterback Desmond Ridder, the Bearcats are a dominant 22-1 in their last 23 games. Their lone loss came a year ago against none other than the Georgia Bulldogs, a team they could meet again if they pull off the unthinkable Friday afternoon. Based on that game, beating Alabama may not be as inconceivable as the current 13.5-point spread suggests. In last season’s Peach Bowl matchup, Georgia was forced to overcome an 11-point fourth-quarter deficit, relying on a last-second field goal to beat the Bearcats. As disappointing as it was for Cincinnati, it proved that Fickell’s squad, despite playing in the American Athletic Conference, can compete with the blue bloods of college football if given the opportunity.

Cincinnati continued to build its case at the start of the 2021 season, with a formidable non-conference schedule that included two Power Five teams, Notre Dame and Indiana. The dark horse team with CFP hopes began their campaign beating Indiana 38-24, then followed up with a season-defining victory at South Bend. Their 24-13 win over Notre Dame ultimately led them to where they are today — in Dallas, Texas preparing for the Cotton Bowl, their toughest test yet.

Don’t look past the Bearcats simply because they’re coming from the ACC. Winning the conference championship wasn’t a cakewalk, either. They faced Dana Holgerson and the Houston Cougars, who just beat Auburn — the same Auburn team that damn near ruined Alabama’s playoff hopes in the final week of the regular season. In the most dramatic game of 2021, the Tigers took Alabama to quadruple overtime. Of course, we all know football scores don’t necessarily have transitive relationships. (Ah, if only it were that easy…)

A handful of NFL-caliber players will take the field for Cincinnati this Friday, including quarterback Desmond Ridder and cornerback Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner. Along with defensive end Myjai Sanders, Cincinnati has three players making ESPN’s Todd McShay’s overall top-50 NFL draft prospects. In total, eight Bearcats make Mel Kiper’s position rankings, including former Alabama running back Jerome Ford (1,242 yards and 19 TDs), wide receiver Alec Pierce, tight end Josh Whyle, cornerback Coby Byrant, and safety Bryan Cook.

It’s no wonder Cincinnati has one of the best defenses (no. 5 in EPA per per play allowed) in all of college football. The combination of Gardner, Bryant and Cook is the best secondary Bryce Young will face.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Record: 12-1
Against the Spread: 8-5
Over/Under: 6-7
National Championship Odds: +120

Speaking of Alabama, the Crimson Tide would be perfect, too, if it were not for a 38-41 loss to Texas A&M halfway through the season. Bama barely scraped by Auburn, but whatever doubts surrounded them at the end of the regular season were quickly put to rest when they dominated then-No. 1 Georgia in the SEC Championship. Alabama took to the air with their Heisman-winning quarterback and diced up Georgia’s secondary. Young finished with 421 yards and three touchdowns. Unfortunately, the win did not come without a casualty.

Wide receiver John Metchie III left the game with an ACL injury, and now Young will have to face the Bearcats without his favorite target. Metchie led the Crimson Tide in receptions (96), nearly 30 more than Jameson Williams. With Gardner likely covering Williams, Bama will have to rely on Slade Bolden (32 receptions) and four other receivers who have combined to catch only 29 passes for 411 yards and three touchdowns to step up in Metchie’s absence.

Alabama’s offensive success has hinged chiefly on Young. The sophomore managed to lead Alabama to 42.5 points per game while passing for 4,322 yards. Young’s decision-making has been on display throughout, throwing four interceptions compared to 43 touchdowns.

Somewhat uncharacteristically for a Saban team, Alabama’s running game took a step back this season, averaging only 4.1 yards per rush. This could be a problem as Alabama’s gameplan may very well rely on a heavy dose of the run game in light of Metchie’s absence and the Bearcats’ talented secondary.

Cotton Bowl Picks & Prediction

Despite the large point spread, 72% of wagers and 91% of the betting handle are backing Saban and Alabama, according to our friends at Scores and Odds. This isn’t so surprising considering 11 of 14 semifinal games have decided by double digits. Saban is unquestionably the greatest college football coach of all time, and I take no pleasure in betting against him when he’s had this much time to prepare, but that’s exactly what I’m doing here.

This isn’t a mismatch of talent that you’d expect between Alabama and a non-Power Five team. Cincinnati has plenty of NFL talent on both sides of the ball. They also match up well with Bama regarding their defensive and offensive strengths. Alabama has shown that they’re vulnerable, even in games they’ve won — Florida, Arkansas, LSU, and Auburn each delivered a scare. I expect Cincinnati, with an experienced quarterback and a hard-nosed defense, to do the same.

PICK: Cincinnati +13

Cincinnati vs. Alabama Props

If you don’t live in a state with legal sports betting, you can still get in on the action by picking DFS props at PrizePicks. Use the code GRINDERS to get a 100% deposit bonus up to $100. Here are a few of my favorite Cincinnati vs. Alabama player props.

Image Credit: Imagn

About the Author

schmitto
Matt Schmitto (schmitto)

Matt Schmitto is an Organic Strategy Lead for Better Collective. He was introduced to daily fantasy sports in 2012 and soon became a member at RotoGrinders. Seven years later, Schmitto joined RotoGrinders Network full time as a staff writer shortly after the Supreme Court overturned PASPA. He has since covered important stories in the sports betting and fantasy sports industries for sites like SportsHandle and USBets and has had roles as a sports betting editor and commercial content manager. He continues to play DFS and loves placing Futures bets at sportsbooks. His favorite DFS sites are DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, and PrizePicks. Follow Schmitto on Twitter – @Matt_Schmitto