Clemson vs. LSU Odds, 2020 National Championship Betting Picks
The 2020 College Football National Championship kicks off Monday night at 8 p.m. ET as the Clemson Tigers face the LSU Tigers at Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana. Here’s a look at Clemson vs. LSU odds at US sportsbooks 2020 National Championship betting picks.
Clemson vs. LSU National Championship Odds
Six months ago, long before Clemson nearly tripped in Chapel Hill, and before the LSU Tigers started the season by scoring 231 points in their first four games, it was the Tigers — the Clemson Tigers — who were the favorites to win the 2020 National Championship.
And rightfully so.
After all, Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney had already led his football team to two national championships. In total, Clemson has made it to four College Football Playoff appearances in the first five years of the newly introduced tournament format.
Most recently, Swinney and the Clemson Tigers had taken down an elephant with the help of freshman quarterback Trevor Lawrence. With a year of experience under his belt, it only made sense that oddsmakers would favor Swinney and Lawrence to return.
Little did they, or anyone for that matter, know there was another pack of Tigers lurking.
Thanks to a 40-32 win in the 2019 Fiesta Bowl win over UCF, the LSU Tigers entered the season fresh off a 10-win season. They returned the quarterback and head coach from that same 10-win team but, competing in arguably the toughest conference in the nation, they weren’t even favorites to win their division in the SEC, much less favorites to win a national championship.
In fact, their 12-to-1 odds to win the SEC Championship alone were shorter than a dozen teams’ odds to win the 2020 National Championship when they opened in January. Some bettors were lucky enough to grab LSU +5000 to win the National Championship. Sharper bettors snagged Joe Burrow 150-1 to win the Heisman Trophy.
Fast forward a bit, and you’ll find the script has flipped.
If you listen to Swinney, it’s the Clemson Tigers who are flying under the radar as we await the conclusion of the College Football Playoff and the national championship game set to be played at 8 p.m. ET Monday night at Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana.
LSU vs. Clemson Betting Picks: Where’s the money?
Swinney isn’t wrong. The Clemson Tigers are 5.5-point underdogs at sportsbooks and bettors are backing LSU; not the defending national champions.
On Friday, 82% of bets and 83% of money was backing LSU on the spread at FanDuel Sportbook. According to VegasInsider.com, 70% of bets are on LSU on the eve of the 2020 National Championship.
The public sentiment behind LSU is a result of so many things. LSU has the Heisman Trophy winner; they set records beating Oklahoma 63-28 in the College Football Playoff semifinals; plus, some are considering the meeting in New Orleans a home game for LSU, Burrow and head coach Ed Orgeron.
But will all these factors translate into a win for the public?
National Championship Betting Picks: Clemson +5.5
Picking the right side of any game is never as easy as simply “fading the public.” But in this case, I find myself doing just that.
Yes, Burrow is having arguably the most efficient season for a quarterback in college football history, making him the odds-on favorite to be the No. 1 pick in the 2020 NFL draft at US sportsbooks. But Clemson has Trevor Lawrence. The sophomore quarterback has yet to lose a game on the national stage.
Yes, LSU blew out the Oklahoma Sooners in stunning fashion. Impressive, indeed. You certainly can’t take anything away from Burrow and LSU’s high-octane offense. Yet, I’m not sure the average national championship bettor realizes how bad Oklahoma and the Big 12 truly was. More than anything, the record-breaking performance, still fresh in the minds college football fans, pundits and bettors alike, has caused a wave of recency bias towards the team from Baton Rouge.
Burrow will not be facing OU on Monday night. He’s facing a Clemson team with depth in the secondary. Per FiveThirtyEight, it’s a secondary that leads the nation in opposing raw QBR on passes of 20 air yards or more, and eighth in opposing pass efficiency on similar throws.
While much has been discussed about LSU’s recent performance, how about Clemson’s last eight games against FBS opponents? They’re 8-0 against the spread, scoring at least 45 points in six of the games.
Finally, how much home-field advantage can you give the Tigers? Mercedes-Benz Superdome will be loud, but not only when Clemson has the ball. There will be plenty of orange in the stands, and I suspect LSU’s home field advantage is overstated.
2020 National Championship Betting Pick: Clemson +5.5 or better
For more college football betting tips, including national championship player props, check out Chris Altruda’s National Championship betting preview at Sports Handle.
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