Cleveland Browns vs. Carolina Panthers Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Browns vs. Panthers Odds
| Browns Odds | PK |
| Panthers Odds | PK |
| Over/Under | 42 |
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 11 |
| Time | 1:00 p.m. |
| TV | CBS |
On Sunday, the Cleveland Browns and the Carolina Panthers will battle in an exciting Week 1 matchup at Bank of America Stadium. Following an offseason divorce between the Browns and Baker Mayfield, the young quarterback will have an opportunity to get revenge on his old team to begin the new season. Oddsmakers are expecting a tightly-contested affair between these two teams, pricing the game as an even pick on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Cleveland Browns
Deshaun Watson will be unavailable for the first 11 games for the Browns this year, following a settlement reached by the NFL and the NFL Players Association to resolve his off-of-the-field matters. In Watson’s absence, Cleveland will turn to veteran Jacoby Brissett to lead the offense. Among qualified signal callers in 2021, Brissett ranked 20th in QBR, 33rd in yards-per-attempt, and 31st in touchdowns-per-attempt with the Miami Dolphins – making him a less than desirable fill-in for three quarters of the campaign. Having Brissett under center, Head Coach Kevin Stefanski is likely to lean heavily on the run game in this spot, with the dynamic duo of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in the backfield. Undoubtedly one of the premier running backs in football, Chubb will have his elite offensive line healthy in this contest, which should afford him plenty of room to run on the ground. Expect Hunt to be busy out of the backfield as a pass-catcher on third-down and against the blitz.
Defensively, Cleveland has the best edge rusher in the league in Myles Garrett. Garrett has recorded double-digit sacks in each of his last four seasons, and has an opportunity to be a game-changer in Week 1 against left tackle Ikem Ekwonu, who never graded as a strong pass protector in college, and will be making his NFL debut on Sunday. The interior of the defensive line could have trouble stopping the run in this contest, but Denzel Ward, Greg Newsome II, John Johnson III, and Grant Delpit should make life very difficult on Baker Mayfield. The Browns could have the best secondary unit in football this fall.
Carolina Panthers
Mayfield was one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL in 2021, but it is doubtful that he performs that poorly again in 2022. Mayfield posted career-worst numbers last year with the Browns, mostly due to his insistence on playing with a fully-torn shoulder from Week 2 until the end of the season. In 2019 and 2020, Mayfield finished with a better than league average passer rating on nearly all passing metrics – both years in which he was playing near full health. He does not have a phenomenal pass-blocking offensive line in Carolina, but he will surely be a major upgrade over Sam Darnold and Cam Newton, who handled the majority of snaps under center for the Panthers last season.
The return of Christian McCaffrey to the field will be a welcome sight for football fans everywhere. One of the most electrifying players in the league, he is also one of the most impactful players on winning (at least by running back standards). In the four games in which McCaffrey played at least 50 percent of the offensive snaps last year, the Panthers went 3-1 and averaged 25 points per game. Though Carolina’s offensive line is weak in pass protection, they do profile relatively well when it comes to run-blocking, and they should be able to win at the line of scrimmage against guys like Jordan Elliott, Taven Bryan, and Jadeveon Clowney in this matchup.
Defensively, there are few teams in the league who possess more upside than the Panthers. Brian Burns, Derrick Brown, Yetur Gross-Matos, Jaycee Horn, C.J. Henderson, Jeremy Chinn, and Shaq Thompson were each picked in the first or second round in their respective draft class. Xavier Woods is entering his sixth season as one of the better run-stuffing safeties in the league. Still, there are a number of young players who are yet to prove themselves at the professional level. On Sunday, this defense should be able to frequently stack the box against Cleveland’s running game, with the talent to play man-to-man coverage against an underwhelming collection of Browns’ receivers. The Panthers defense could have a strong day.
Browns vs. Panthers Picks & Predictions
Similar to 2021, the Browns have a roster replete with talent. However, the lack of strong quarterback play could overshadow the rest of redeeming qualities on the football field in Week 1. In limited exposure as a starter last fall, Brissett was a worse than league-average quarterback against the blitz, under pressure, on 3rd down, and in the red zone. He graded below the 50th percentile on all types of throws, but was especially poor on throws of 20-plus yards down-the-field, with a 63.5 passer rating.
The media is painting the narrative that this is a revenge game for Baker Mayfield – and it very well might be. Yet, Mayfield could find himself under duress early and often on Sunday, with a poor pass-blocking offensive line trying to slow down Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney. Cleveland is most vulnerable on the interior portion of their defensive line against the run, with their biggest strength being an elite secondary unit.
Both teams should emphasize the run game tremendously in this spot, which should lead to fewer quick scores, and more field goals than touchdowns. The under is the smart lean here.
PICK: Under 42 (-107, PointsBet)
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