Clippers vs. Jazz Odds, Preview, & Picks: Kawhi Leonard Out for Game 5

by Sloan Piva (SloanPiva) Last Updated 2021-06-16 13:47:55

Clippers vs. Jazz Game 5 Odds

Update: Kawhi Leonard is expected to miss Game 5 with a knee injury, and could miss the remainder of the Western Conference Semifinals. Check back to see how Game 5 odds are impacted — Wed., 9:30 am ET

Update: Sportsbooks adjusted swiftly to Wednesday’s news, moving the spread from Jazz -3 to Jazz -7.5. At BetMGM, the total moved down to 221.5 from 223.5. The Clippers will need a huge game from Paul George if they are to beat the Jazz on the road in Game 5. — Wed., 9:47 am ET

The Western Conference Semifinals has been a tale of two matchups. In one, the Suns completely dominated the Nuggets and swept MVP Nikola Jokic off his own court. In the other, the Jazz and Clippers have exchanged haymakers on home floors, and will start fresh in Game 5 with the series at an even 2-2 split.

The Jazz held on to home-court advantage despite not having Mike Conley (hamstring), winning Game 1 by three points and Game 2 by six. But LA stormed back in Hollywood, erupting for Game 3 and 4 wins of 132-106 and 118-104, respectively. How can we possibly project Game 5?

Clippers-Jazz Injury Report: Leonard OUT Game 5

Adding to the unpredictability of this pivotal Wednesday night matchup is the ubiquitous presence of injuries. Both these franchises are all too familiar with health concerns, both this season and in the past. The aforementioned Conley, a fringe All-Star point guard this season, has yet to appear in a game this series. LA’s talented big man Serge Ibaka, who missed the majority of the regular season, was ruled out for the season after recent back surgery. And then there’s the respective superstars of each squad.

Utah’s Donovan Mitchell and LA’s Kawhi Leonard have looked every bit like the franchise players they are this postseason, but it’s nerve-racking to watch them rise up for each dunk. Mitchell missed a big chunk of games this regular season due to an ankle sprain, which he apparently aggravated Monday. Leonard, who has dealt with injuries and load management for the better part of a decade, might have sustained a leg injury of his own in Game 4. He walked off the court and clutched his right knee after a Joe Ingles foul, and checked out of the game with a little under five minutes left to play.

Both players initially said they were good to go for Game 5, but it’s got to be like walking on eggshells for Jazz coach Quin Snyder and Clippers coach Ty Lue. The Jazz need Spida Mitchell to have any chance at grasping their future goals, but cannot win this series with both him and Conley sidelined. Similarly, the Clippers cannot afford to rest Leonard now, nor can they afford to lose him down the line. Unfortunately for the Clippers, Leonard appears unable to go in Game 5. According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, he could be out the rest of the series.

Clippers vs. Jazz Game 5 Predictions

If both sides have their superstar players for the entirety of Game 5, I like the trend of the home team winning to continue. The Jazz have the ability to turn it up an extra gear in Salt Lake City, with one of the better home-court advantages in pro sports. They shoot 50.6 percent from the floor at Vivint Arena, and hold opponents to just 47.8 percent (third-best in the NBA). Their 35-6 home record was the best in hoops this season, and their 27-14 home record against the spread tied Phoenix for best in the biz.

Utah’s dynamic team offense comes alive at home, as does its superior team defense. Snyder’s advanced pace-and-space strategy seems to click more fluidly, and the home crowd always plays a part in breaking down its opponents. The Jazz move the ball better, shoot better, and defend better in their own confines.

Rudy Gobert, who just claimed his third Defensive Player of the Year award, is great just about wherever he plays. But he is practically impossible to score on at Vivint. He eliminates the lane for penetrators, swallows up opponents on the interior, and consistently gets into passing lanes. The Clippers big men don’t stand a chance against him, nor do most of LA’s slashing guards and forwards.

That means LA will have to continue to shoot well from beyond the arc if it wants to steal the pivotal Game 5 in Utah. Can Lue get road-game consistency from Paul George, who combined for 62-12-9 in LA’s two home wins, but shot just 12-of-35 (34%) in the first two games in Utah? ‘PG13’ has always been regarded as somewhat of a playoff choke artist, so rising above the NBA’s top playoff seed on their own floor would do wonders to break that stereotype.

Clippers vs. Jazz Picks

Can x-factor guard Reggie Jackson, a +23 for the Clippers across Games 3 and 4 but a -11 in Games 1 and 2, get things rolling in enemy territory? Will Marcus Morris Sr. continue his hot shooting from Game 4 (5-of-6 from three, 24 points), or go back in hiding like his first three games (23 total points on 1-of-16 from three)?

That’s a lot of questions for LA. And while I like the Clippers’ chances to carry over momentum and at least cover in Game 5, I wouldn’t be willing to bet against Utah straight up at home just yet. This series seems destined for a Game 7, which means the home teams will most likely continue putting up Ws—at least for now. We can all just cross our fingers that the high level of entertainment in this series won’t be further affected by the dreaded injury bug.

• FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Jazz 111-109
• NBA PICKS: Jazz ML -145, UNDER 223.5

Schmitto’s Pick:

Image Credit: Imagn