College Basketball Grind Down: November 21st

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2013-11-21 17:20:43

Finally we have a few major conference matchups to preview. With the early season tournaments heating up, we could have some solid finals within the first month here. Tonight’s slate is very interesting as there are a few really high scoring games to take advantage of and some serious potential mismatches in these games. We will get to those below.

The new hand-check enforcement has increased fouls and has increased scoring. In my opinion, as teams adjust, this is going to benefit the more talented offensive players, so the guys who can drive and score, and those with really good post moves are going to benefit as long as they can shoot free throws. I definitely take into account free throw shooting now when picking my players and if someone is Andre Drummond bad at free throws I may pass them over completely if they do not have a great matchup.

All stats are courtesy of kenpom.com

Connecticut

The first thing that stands out to me with UConn is how horrible this team is at rebounding. They are so bad, that Shabazz Napier is the best rebounder on the team. I am not sure how DeAndre Daniels has regressed so far from last year, but he has. He just cannot rebound, and it is showing in his offensive game as well. At this point against Ryan Anderson, he is a clear avoid to me. Omar Calhoun has his big games but he is a risky play, in big fields he is a great play. Niels Giffey’s ridiculous offensive rating cannot continue and I would not use him as a fantasy option as he is playing under half the possible minutes. The real stars here are Shabazz and Ryan Boatright. Napier could very well be the best all around guard in the country and is well worth his price if he continues rebounding like he has been and Boatright is a solid play if he continues to be cheap like he has been lately.

Boston College

With Eddie Odio’s foot injury, and his uncertain status for tonight’s game, Boston College may have to go small which may not be that bad of an idea. I love Ryan Anderson tonight against the rebound challenged Huskies and the defensively challenged Daniels. Olivier Hanlan is always a solid play but I would exercise caution using him against Napier who is solid all around. Lonnie Jackson is back and if he is minimum salary I would consider using him as he will get a ton of minutes if Odio is still shelved. Rahon also gets a ton of minutes and if he is cheap I wouldn’t hesitate to use him either as he will get his shots.

Central Florida

Central Florida usually runs with 4 men on the floor and a rotating 5th guy, making Matt Williams and their bench generally useless for fantasy purposes. Isaiah Sykes is the guy to own here, but expect him to be one of the highest salaries. No worries though, as anyone who takes 37% of his teams shots is a pretty safe play. His rebound rate is a little lower than his career so I would expect that to improve and he has a ton of assists. Roll Sykes out if you can afford him especially against whatever guard tries to guard him on Miami. Spurlock is the other solid option improving on his shooting and efficiency every year. I am a little bit worried about his matchup against Kirk and Jekiri though as Spurlock really struggled against the giant athletic forwards of Florida State. Calvin Newell gets a ton of playing time and also makes a solid play against Manu Lecomte who he will have 4 inches on. Kasey Wilson could also make a good play but he really has not had that breakout game yet, although he is producing with blocks and steals.

Miami

The Miami loss against St. Francis NY does not look as bad as it did a week ago when St. Francis locked down Syracuse defensively and almost pulled the upset. Miami has gotten better every game and has a guy you need to take notice of in James Kelly who is really coming on for Miami and taking Davon Reed’s minutes. Kelly has been solid offensively and putting in work on the glass. Kelly makes a solid play if he’s cheap as his minutes have increased every game and he takes a ton of shots. I love watching Donnavan Kirk play for Miami as he was completely underutilized at DePaul and makes a solid play tonight against an undersized UCF frontcourt. Rion Brown is always a great play and will be the fantasy leader on this team by years end. I would avoid Garrius Adams as he has been pretty poor so far on the offensive end and may also be losing some time to James Kelly. Lecomte is a little bit short and will have to deal with Newell, so I am not considering him tonight. On Draftkings where you need a center, I would not consider Jekiri either as he is way too inconsistent and does not receive the minutes.

Temple

I am going to be real interested in this matchup because if Temple has any hopes of an at-large bid, they need to take care of Clemson here. KJ McDaniels is going to pose an issue with his athleticism against Pepper and I would avoid Pepper today. Two guys I feel really comfortable using are Anthony Lee and Will Cummings. Cummings should be able to post a huge game against Rod Hall and Anthony Lee gets to face the undersized, poor defense of the Clemson frontcourt. Fire away on Lee even if his price has risen. Quenten DeCosey makes an interesting GPP play as he takes a ton of shots, some that may be ill advised but he has the potential for a massive stat line. Mark Williams is not a fantasy option and no one else on Temple really should be considered.

Clemson

I said it before and I’ll say it again, that KJ McDaniels is the only guy on Clemson’s roster to trust here. McDaniels should have a huge athleticism advantage over anyone that Temple throws on him and should be able to score at will today. Rod Hall has been proving me wrong all season and I am another good game away from being a convert. I am not opposed to using him, I just do not trust him myself at this time. I really would not recommend anyone else on this team.

Indiana

This is the highest projected total game of the night and I am most likely going to take my value plays from this bunch. Sheehey has been up and down but will most likely be guarded by CJ Wilcox which may hurt his value some. Hollowell and Williams value goes up today as whoever gets the shorter Washington guard is going to be able to post up and do some damage, I just do not want to guess who will get Andrews or Johnson. Hoops junkies know how good Noah Vonleh has been so far this year, but at the end of this game, the nation will know as neither Blackwell or Kemp can guard Vonleh and he should cruise to a 15-12 stat line again. Ferrell is also a great play against the defensively challenged Williams-Goss who let the UC-Irvine guards blow by him with ease. Feel free to load up on Hoosiers today.

Washington

Washington has some matchup problems in this game and this is why I included Perris Blackwell in the previewed 5 here as I believe he is going to get a ton of minutes. Indiana’s starters are huge and with the loss of Jerreau for the year, Washington is going to have to match up somehow, and that will be by giving Perris Blackwell and Shawn Kemp a ton of minutes because there is no way that Darin Johnson or Mike Anderson can guard Vonleh. Kemp and Blackwell are definitely in play today as value plays. I would shy away from Johnson, Anderson, and Andrews, as a couple of these guys are going to lose some minutes to the bigs. CJ Wilcox is always a solid play being fully recovered from the stress fracture and he should pick up around his usual 20-10 stat line. Williams-Goss has been one of Washington’s least efficient players and he is taking the most amount of shots, and with his assist prowess he is in play today as well.

Some other quick analysis for Draftkings:

Florida State: While not totally devoid of any fantasy talent, FSU does not bring much to the table. If I were to use anyone, it would most likely be Bookert, as he is getting the most playing time of any of the rest of the team, along with having the 2nd highest offensive rating. Bookert makes a poor play against the Havoc D on any site that penalizes turnovers, as he is going to have a few against the raucous press of VCU. Okaro White should be the go-to guy on this team but he is splitting shots with everyone even though he is involved in most of the possessions. White will break out at some point, but I am not sure if it is here against VCU. Ian Miller is also a sniper from three and could make a sneaky play if he is really cheap, but just like Bookery will have some problems with the press. Gilchrist is not a fantasy option and at 6-9 with a 7.8 defensive rebounding rate, it makes me wonder why he is even playing 60% of the available minutes.

Kansas State: If you do not know who Marcus Foster is, learn that name, he will be heard much this year. The superb freshman for the Wildcats has taken over the scoring load and is taking almost 30% of the shots for K-State. He wasn’t a heralded recruit, but K-State is relying on him to score, and if he is still cheap he makes a great play against Charlotte. Will Spradling also will be a little used play who can post a nice game as he has rebounded well and assists well this year.

Florida: Kasey Hill is out and Wilbekin is still out for this game against Middle Tennesse, and I like the Blue Raiders to pull the upset here. The real question is, who is going to be the guy for Florida? Look for Florida to go big with Finney-Smith, Prather, Young, and Yeguete and I would guess would either start Eli Carter or Michael Frazier at the point. Either would make a nice value play because I think both will be getting a ton of minutes. Carter produced at Rutgers, and while he hasn’t had the chance to prove himself in a more talented environment this could be his shot. Prather makes a great play again and should continue to take over 26% of Florida’s shots and shoot at a high rate.

Utah: Utah has played 2 consecutive games in the 70s and 80s in tempo and appear to be playing their games at a very fast pace. If you want a guy who is going to get a ton of run and lots of rebounds look no further than Jordan Loveridge. Loveridge is a stud and is flourishing against inferior competition in the beginning part of the season, as is Delon Wright a JUCO transfer. Wright has been downright efficient this year in every aspect. Anywhere you can afford these two, they will produce against a team making their D-1 debut this year in Grand Canyon.

Wake Forest: Another team playing at a monster tempo is Wake Forest. They have won 3 of 4 by scoring an average of 93 points in those games and using 80 possessions. Codi Miller-McIntyre is really taking over this offense sans CJ Harris and is going a very nice job in scoring and stuffing the stat sheet. Travis McKie who seems to have been at Wake forever is a GPP as he can disappear for the entire game, but a stud pick to get you guaranteed points is Devin Thomas who has really blossomed into one of the best rebounders in the conference, and is playing offense at a high level and high efficiency. Those 3 guys are all definitely in play today.