College Basketball Grind Down: November 8th
Welcome to the College Basketball Grind Down. Throughout the season I will be breaking down the most intriguing fantasy relevant games for you. During the conference season starting at the beginning of January, we will get this out every Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday and Sunday, and an injury report on Mondays and Fridays. During the non-conference, as there is no rhyme or reason to when these games are, the articles will be up on the biggest slate days.
Every beginning of November when college basketball season starts I am like that little kid on Christmas morning waiting to tear open his presents. I make guesses at what the teams will look like and then get really excited when I finally get to see some college hoops. The difference is, that instead of the one day of Christmas, college basketball is 5 months long culminating in the greatest sports tournament there is to offer.
Obviously on certain days, previewing all the matchups is not feasible, so I will pick 8-10 of the most fantasy relevant games and preview them. There are two things to remember about college basketball; first, minutes played is huge just as in NBA, you want the guy who is going to be on the court 30-35 minutes every game. Secondly, tempo tempo tempo is the name of the game. While most NBA games are over/under totals range between 185-205, college games range anywhere usually from 110-180 which is a much larger scope. The hand-check rule is going to play a big part this year, but we will get into that a bit more in the analysis. Here in this article I will list MPG for each player in the projected starting lineup and also the team’s tempo along with the over/under for the game as efficiency matters as well. All of these features may not start out here but I will add tables and update stat colors to make things more user friendly and according to your input as the season goes on.
Fanduel and Draftkings are the only 2 sites with college hoops up for Friday right now, and Draftkings has included a MASSIVE player pool for this Friday, so we will concentrate on the 7 games offered by Fanduel.
Alabama T: 63.5
Projected Starters:
G – Retin Obasohan
G – Trevor Releford
G – Rodney Cooper
F – Nick Jacobs
F – Jimmie Taylor
Half of Alabama’s students probably do not even know their basketball season tips off today, as they are too worried about the game against LSU on Saturday. Starting point guard Levi Randolph is improving with his knee injury, but I would not expect him to play in this game, which makes three players great value plays in my mind in Trevor Releford, Nick Jacobs and Rodney Cooper. Releford is a great scorer who is a lock to lead the Tide in points this year and makes for a great option with the other scorer from last year, Lacey, transferring. I am expecting a huge year for Releford, and while he will not get you many assists and rebounds he is a great shooter on a team full of bad shooters. Nick Jacobs is Alabamas most skilled forward, which is not saying much, and should pick up his share of rebounds and a couple of putbacks, and Rodney Cooper is a great wing who makes for a good GPP play as his production is up and down. Alabama will most likely go tall without Randolph and I am expecting the freshman Jimmie Taylor to get the start. He is big and had 7 blocks in their exhibition, but does not have much of a scoring stroke. Retin Obasohan played 41 minutes in the exhibition and only managed a 5-4-2 stat line. He will have to play a lot of minutes due to no depth, so it is possible he could make value, he just is not used very much in the offense.
Oklahoma T: 67.2
Projected Starters:
G – Buddy Hield
G – Je’lon Hornbeak
G – Jordan Woodard
F – Cameron Clark
F – Ryan Spangler
This team intrigues me, and I am taking them to wipe out Alabama in this game by a large margin. Buddy Hield is the real deal, and you should expect a breakout year for the sophomore PG. He played the most minutes, had the ball in his hands the most, and took the most shots in their exhibition. Fire him up with confidence against the point-guard less Alabama. Ryan Spangler, a transfer from Gonzaga is Alabama’s best interior presence and should get good minutes. Spangler is a bit shorter than the bigs for Alabama, so it makes me nervous a bit, but if he is cheap he should pull down his share of rebounds and score well. Jordan Woodard is the dark horse here, the freshman played a ton of minutes in the exhibition and it appears to me as if Lon Kruger wants him as a huge part of their roster. He played very well in the latest exhibition posting a stat line of 17-6-5 in 33 min. I am taking a wait and see approach as the alpha dog in the backcourt is Hield. Cameron Clark comes in at the 4, and while he posted some solid tempo-free stats last year, he committed 3.8 fouls per 40 min and had a very poor exhibition. I think he will be just fine, but I am using a wait and see approach here. I am straying away from Hornbeak and Cousins as well. Cousins is dealing with an ankle sprain and may not suit up for this one, and Hornbeak is banged up as well and may play a bit less minutes if it gets out of hand.
Maryland T: 67.6
Projected Starters:
G – Roddy Peters
G – Dez Wells
G – Nick Faust
F – Evan Smotrycz
F – Charles Mitchell
The loss of Seth Allen hurts a bit but I think Maryland is better off throwing Roddy Peters into the fire at PG, as he is definitely capable. Dez Wells is the most skilled player on this roster and should thrive if Roddy Peters emerges as a great point guard, however his matchup against Shabazz Napier does not make him a great play. Nick Faust should get the start at the 3, but Jake Layman is waiting in the wings and has the bigger upside. Layman scored 23 points on a solid shooting performance in Maryland’s last exhibition and I am expecting him to be starting at the end of the year. Evan Smotrycz transferred from Michigan and should prove his worth as a stretch 4. I like his matchup against Daniels who is not really used to playing away from the basket. Charles Mitchell, while a beast inside does not strike me as a huge fantasy option as Turgeon loves to rotate his big man’s minutes. Len could have averaged 20-10 last year but for some reason Turgeon only gave him 20 minutes per game, and I am expecting that to happen this year between Mitchell, Shaq Cleare and Damonte Dodd. Just avoid all of Maryland’s centers.
Connecticut T: 66.0
Projected Starters:
G – Ryan Boatright
G – Shabazz Napier
G – Omar Calhoun
F – DeAndre Daniels
F – Niels Giffey
The strength of this team is the guard play, and Boatright and Napier will have their monster DFS games at some point this year. I really like the matchup of Ryan Boatright against the freshman Peters today over Napier, and Boatright is a bit cheaper. Also playing into that fact as Boatright was one of the least foul prone guards in the country last year and one of the best foul shooters in the country as well. With the new handchecking rule, these skills are vital and Boatright is one of the safer options of the day. Omar Calhoun has really improved his game and his body this year and is expected to have a good year, however if I am targeting a UConn guard it is one of the big 2. DeAndre Daniels is going to have a breakout year fantasy wise, and if his price is cheap you should definitely thing about rostering him; the only worry I have is that he will be guarding Smotrycz who likes to play around the perimiter and will pull Daniels away from the basket hampering his ability to rebound in this game. Niels Giffey, Philip Nolan, and Tyler Olander never were worth rostering last year, and I am not expecting that to change for a team who returns basically everyone and never really includes the 5 in their scoring plan.
St. John’s T: 67.8
G – D’Angelo Harrison
G – Phil Greene
F – Jakarr Sampson
F – Sir’Dominic Pointer
F – Chris Obekpa
UPDATE: Chris Obekpa is playing, he was only suspended for exhibitions. (Real pointless right?) Obekpa cuts into Kaminsky and Dekker’s value and has hardly any offensive game, but on a site like Fanduel which uses blocks he is definitely in play. Kaminsky may drag him away from the basket as well.
St. John’s is a hard team to read. On one hand, they have one of the most talented rosters with Harrison, Sampson, Obekpa, and Pointer, but on the other hand they have never put it together. The only players I would consider using are Harrison and Sampson as Obekpa is suspended for the first 3 games and no one else is a big part of the offense. The problem in this game is that Wisconsin is going to drag the tempo down, they will not foul and Harrison and Sampson will be the only ones taking shots. Harrison will face off against Gasser who he has a huge quickness advantage off of and Sampson will most likely play off Dekker who is a bit better defender than Gasser. I would not recommend any Red Storm in this game, but if you want one, play D’Angelo. The St. John’s bench intrigues me, as Jamal Branch, Orlando Sanchez and Rysheed Jordan are all very solid players, I just think all 3 are most likely too risky to own against Wisconsin.
Wisconsin T: 62.9
G – Josh Gasser
G – Ben Brust
G – Traevon Jackson
F – Sam Dekker
F – Frank Kaminsky
One thing you know out of Bo Ryan teams is that they are going to defend without fouling and that they are going to run their offense. They are a slow, slow, slow team and I do not expect that to change with the new rule. They should go small at the beginning of the season as they have 3 very capable guards in Gasser, Brust, and Jackson, and one of the best wings in Dekker. The only DFS play in my mind is Sam Dekker as he should get a lot of offensive opportunities on a team which will not put up a lot of points. Frank Kaminsky could be a solid play as St. John’s does not have a big who can match up with his size without Obekpa. The only issue with Kaminsky is that he loves to play away from the basket, so it will be up to Ryan to get him to take advantage of his size in this game.
Boston College T: 65.3
G – Joe Rahon
G – Olivier Hanlan
G – Patrick Heckmann
F – Ryan Anderson
F – Eddie Odio
Other than Olivier Hanlan and Ryan Anderson, I would not really recommend any of the Boston College players. While I am very bullish on Hanlan this year (I think he is an ACC first team All American by the end of the year) no one other than the big 2 makes fantasy waves. Rahon gets a ton of minutes and makes a GPP play as he takes a ton of 3’s but Hanlan is the guy you want against Cotton who is more concerned about how he is going to score it than defend. On sites that only have major conference games I have no qualms about taking both Hanlan and Cotton. Ryan Anderson sophomore season was somewhat average compared to his breakout freshman campaign, but his junior season should be as good if not better than his freshman campaign. I would contemplate fading him however as he is going to have to face the skilled bigs of Providence in Batts Henton and Desrosiers. Heckmann and Odio are role players at best who have their games but there are better options out there.
Providence T: 66.8
G – Josh Fortune
G – Bryce Cotton
F – LaDontae Henton
F – Kadeem Batts
F – Carson Desrosiers
Kris Dunn’s injury has really impacted Providence as well as a couple of suspensions. Josh Fortune should get the start at point guard but he was never a good option when he got a ton of minutes last year, so I would use caution with him. Bryce Cotton makes potentially the best play of the day as he should get 40 minutes of playing time and is the most used player on Providence. Cotton is going to take a ton of shots and will be matched up with Hanlan and Heckmann who are not the greatest defenders. LaDontae Henton could be another great play as he will pose some matchup problems against the Boston College lineup. Henton is a skilled forward who can rebound against the shorter Heckmann and drive against anyone else who plays against him. I would fade Kadeem Batts as Ryan Anderson should be shadowing him all game and Anderson is one of the best players in the ACC this year.
Oregon T: 68.6
G – Johnathan Loyd
G – Joseph Young
G – Damyean Dotson
F – Mike Moser
F – Waverly Austin
This is one of the most intriguing games to me. Artis and Carter were suspended for 9 games so Loyd takes over point guard duties, but he was never a great option last year. Joseph Young should lead the Ducks in scoring and makes a good play against Smith-Rivera who is not a great defender. Damyean Dotson is a wild card, but plays aganist Trawick who is a great defender making Dotson a pretty poor option in this game. Mike Moser is one of the most interesting transfers this year; he is coming off a disappointing season with UNLV, however he is back into his natural position with Oregon. Moser can be found at a bargain and with his talent should not be ignored even against the Georgetown frontcourt as he will have a quickness advantage against Lubick and Smith and should be able to use some post moves to his advantage. Waverly Austin played well in Oregon’s exhibition, dominating smaller competition but I wouldn’t expect him to duplicate that against Lubick and Smith.
Georgetown T: 64.0
G – Markel Starks
G – D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera
G – Jabril Trawick
F – Nate Lubick
F – Josh Smith
Matchup wise, Markel Starks has one of the greatest matchups of the day. He finally gets a size advantage against another player and has a quickness advantage albeit a toughness defecit. Starks is determined to prove himself this year and should be one of the top options tonight. D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera is a poor defender but will make the Georgetown guy who makes the biggest jump this year. Smith-Rivera is an amazing shooter and has a great shot to lead the Hoyas in scoring this year, and especially against Young in this game who will be content on scoring the ball. Josh Smith is one of the bigger GPP plays of the day as he very recently got his waiver from the NCAA. Smith is notoriously known to be overweight but I have heard some great reports out of him in the preseason. Smith could be a double double lock if he gets the minutes, but I would certainly set him as a GPP play to begin the season. Trawick and Lubick are not great offensive players and I really would not consider them unless they are minimum salary.
Colorado T: 65.9
G – Spencer Dinwiddie
G – Askia Booker
F – Xavier Johnson
F – Wesley Gordon
F – Josh Scott
What a great potential season for Colorado. Colorado has one of the best returning guards in Dinwiddie and one of the most underrated guards in Booker. Booker took a backseat to the improving Dinwiddie and at times shows lapses in judgment. Xavier Johnson is one of the best forwards talent-wise in the Pac-12, however could run into issues with the new hand check rule as he likes to foul along with a penchant for turning the ball over. Dinwiddie should go ham against the undersized backcourt of Chery and Heslip and I really like Dinwiddie tonight even at near max salary. Johnson is a great GPP play as he gets to play against the inexperienced Wainright or Gathers or Prince where all 3 love to foul, and if he can stay on the court he will put up numbers. Although I think that Wesley Gordon is a great redshirt freshman and Josh Scott is in line for a double double average, tonight is not the night to use the bigs for Colorado; Jefferson and Austin are 2 of the tallest, best defensive and best rebounding bigs in the country and scoring on Baylor inside is going to be a tough proposition this year.
Baylor T: 67.6
G – Kenny Chery
G – Brady Heslip
F – Ish Wainwright
F – Cory Jefferson
F – Isaiah Austin
I am not sure many people know how good Kenny Chery is. He is one of the best JUCO transfers, somewhat comparable to Pierre Jackson. I am very bullish on Chery this year but I would avoid him today as the 6-6 Dinwiddie is one of the best on-ball defenders in the league and should have no problem containing Chery. Brady Heslip is a GPP option only as he can go off for 9 3’s in a game or get 0 points whatsoever. I am not sure what to make about Ish Wainwright as I have heard great things but there are 4 guys ahead of him in the scoring pecking order so he is a huge risk with not much upside. Cory Jefferson and Isaiah Austin are 2 of the best forwards in the game and are definitely top plays on whatever site you are playing on. I like Jefferson a bit more as he should be the alpha dog for rebounds this year and is a bit cheaper than Austin.
Texas Christian T: 64.2
G – Kyan Anderson
G – Charles Hill Jr
F – Hudson Price
F – Jarvis Ray
F – Karviar Shepherd
Usually when a team gets better at most every position, they are going to rise up the rankings in their conference. The problem with TCU is they are still playing with mid major talent in a major league. While they made some strides in recruiting, they still do not have the depth and the talent to compete in the Big 12. Karviar Shepherd, who is filling in for Durley who has a torn ACL, is the only DFS option to consider here. Shepherd should have his way in the early season and post a double double with ease. Amric Fields is not ready to come back from his torn ACL, and although Kyan Anderson will play 40 minutes per game, he was a turnover machine last year and I want to see what he can do before I feel comfortable rostering him. Hill will at some point succumb to Brandon Parrish at the 2, and does not make a great option, along with Hudson Price who will struggle against the skilled, experienced SMU guards. Jarvis Ray is more of a 3 playing the 4 this year due to Fields’ absence, which should help out Shepherd’s rebounding totals. Chris Washburn is also on this team, however TCU is STILL waiting on a waiver from the NCAA so Washburn is a no go until he gets that.
Southern Methodist T: 64.5
G – Nic Moore
G – Nick Russell
F – Jalen Jones
F – Ryan Manuel
F – Yanick Moreira
I am very, very, very excited about this team. This SMU team has playmakers all around. Word has it that they took Colorado to the woodshed in a preseason tilt. Someone has to be forced out of the starting lineup from last year and that is Cannen Cunningham. Cunningham is a very solid player who is going to earn his time in the front court and could be in play if he is minimum salary. Yanick Moreira is my favorite play from SMU who should earn big minutes right off the bat and should not be challenged for the center spot for the rest of the year. I am expecting a 14-8 line from Yanick today. Nic Moore gets the reins as the PG, however I would not advise taking him in fantasy because of the scoring option of the other 4 starters. Ryan Manuel is my favorite play on this team due to his foul shooting proficiency and offensive efficiency but I really would not talk you out of using Jalen Jones or Nick Russell.
Also feel free to ask any questions below, I will answer as soon as I look here.
I know that is a lot to process, but here are some value Draftkings plays:
G Jordair Jett (SLU)
G JJ Mann (BEL)
G Brett Comer (FGCU)
G Devyn Marble (Iowa)
G Chasson Randle (Stan)
F Zach McCabe (Iowa)
F Justin Jackson (Cin)
F Tarik Black (KU)
F Kadeem Jack (RU)
C Mike Tobey (UVA)