College Basketball Grind Down: Sat, Feb 8th
We have a pretty large slate on tap for this Saturday, so I will hit on the most important and fantasy relevant games for the day and also give a news and notes column at the end with some value plays and injury notes. There are a plethora of interesting close games and there should be a wide range of roster combinations today.
FanDuel has put a few large guarantees out there for next weekend, so get out there and qualify for the big events and fill them up to let FD and other sites know there is interest. As always, the score projections are from KenPom.com and there may be a few injury concerns that happen before tip on Saturday. Let’s get right to it.
Michigan 74 at Iowa 79
Michigan
The Wolverines have been slowing it down the whole season but still put up numbers because their offense is remarkably efficient. Glenn Robinson broke out of his funk last game by being extremely involved in the offense and shooting a great percentage from the floor. He scored a lot but it was LeVert and Stauskas who impacted the game in multiple ways. Stauskas really was not asked to score but still managed 9 points and 8 assists with 4 rebounds. I think his price will have dropped a bit but he is still a solid play against a Iowa team who will speed up the tempo. Iowa is a pretty solid all around defensive team but they should be able to speed up Michigan at home better than they did in their loss at Michigan. LeVert struggled in that game against Iowa and it was all Stauskas and Robinson doing the damage, so both should have a solid shot at making value.
Iowa
I liked Aaron White against Michigan last time, and I like him again tonight. Iowa should have a bit more luck at keeping a high tempo tonight and White should benefit. He did most of his damage in the 2nd half last game but I am expecting a better all around game from him. Devyn Marble should also produce nicely today even though Michigan will try to slow Iowa down. I am not too high on any of the Iowa value options; there are a lot of minutes and the shots are pretty evenly distributed past those two. One guy I might take a flier on however depending on how cheap he is is Melsahn Basabe who really took it to the Michigan interior in the last game and should be able to continue to abuse them today.
Oregon 77 at Arizona State 82
Oregon
These are two teams coming off two different emotional reactions from their late Thursday games. I am not sure what Oregon has left in the tank, they may have exerted it all against Arizona. They played more like a team and spread the ball around getting 4 in double figures and many had multiple rebounds. They should be able to score a lot more against Arizona State, and if Artis continues to play the way he did in this game he will make a great value option. I am not really sure what to make of the rest of the team as it will be a gamble. Moser comes and goes, Joe Young gets shots but really doesn’t do much else, and the rest of the team doesn’t get consistent minutes.
Arizona State
I am looking more at Arizona State to target players from. Jordan Bachynski played his first good game in a long time against Oregon State and I think he continues it tonight. Oregon is weak inside and Bachynski should have a field day here if he can stay out of foul trouble. Shaq McKissic is very impressive and does all the little things, he drives, passes, plays defense, and can also shoot the ball. What I would like to see though is more drives to the hoop from Jahii Carson rather than his tendency to fall into fadeaway jumpers. He is much better and the entire Sun Devils roster is much better when Carson is breaking down defenses off the dribble. That being said, I think he has a fantastic matchup here and I am definitely going to be targeting him in this game.
North Carolina 74 at Notre Dame 73
North Carolina
Could the Tar Heels be getting some sort of resemblance of consistency? They have now won 3 straight and face a big test here before their battle with Duke next Wednesday. Kennedy Meeks continues to put up numbers while playing less than 20 minutes per game and I do not think his minutes are changing any time soon. Tokoto plays a lot but isn’t really involved in the offense as it runs around Paige and McAdoo. McAdoo has been solid lately and should have a solid game in this one as long as he does not have to shoot jumpers. Notre Dame allows people to shoot a pretty solid percentage so McAdoo should be able to get some easy looks. Paige makes a solid play, nothing too fancy, however his price may be a little bit out of range due to his big game against Maryland I am not convinced with any other UNC player here however as Notre Dame is slower than UNC and ND gets the bump at home.
Notre Dame
I think this is a great spot to use some Notre Dame value in this game while the prices are low. I think Eric Atkins, Pat Connaughton and Garrick Sherman are all going to have solid games. Notre Dame has played at an absurdly slow pace for a few weeks now so their salaries are all a little depressed going into a game where UNC will force feed 10 more possessions on them. There is not a true weak spot to abuse on the UNC defense, but I think all 3 of those guys are worth it especially if the Tar Heels are looking over this game getting ready for Duke on Wednesday.
Missouri 72 at Mississippi 74
Missouri
Jabari Brown had a pretty poor matchup last time out and didn’t make his value which should pull his price down a little bit. The fact is he has been a stud lately and has a solid matchup against Ole Miss today who plays a pretty fast tempo. I like Missouri in this spot even though Clarkson and Brown are both high priced. You probably won’t be able to afford both so I would go with Brown in this one but Clarkson makes a solid play as well. I wouldn’t use any of the post players for Missouri as I think they will struggle against the many bodies that the Rebels will throw at them. I am not sure what to make of Earnest Ross only that he has been struggling and is continuously getting lower minutes.
Mississippi
Ole Miss has become a very hard team to read outside of Jarvis Summers and Marshall Henderson. We know that Summers will drive and mix in some 3’s and will get assists if Henderson is hitting his 3’s and we know Henderson will take about 15 3’s. What we do not know is how Andy Kennedy will use his forwards, and he sure has a lot of them. Jones, Cox, Saiz, and Perez are all getting 20 minutes per game and LaDarius White is also taking some minutes. I think Perez has the most upside out of all 4 but Jones is the best play on FanDuel because of blocks and steals. I am not huge on any of the players here as Mississippi is going to take a tempo hit here.
Baylor 72 at Oklahoma 79
Baylor
The Bears are such a slow team that when they play the 11th ranked team in tempo in the nation it’s an incredible opportunity. Kenny Chery should be back to almost full strength and makes a pretty solid play here. All of Baylor’s players are underpriced and Oklahoma is not the strongest defensive team. I can see big games from Cory Jefferson and Isaiah Austin here against Spangler and Clark who are the only bigs that Oklahoma has. I really think Baylor matches up well in this one and I think some value can be found on their team.
Oklahoma
This is somewhat the opposite for Oklahoma than it is for Baylor. The Sooners are really fast but Baylor is really slow and will cost them a few possessions. 79 points for a projection may seem like a lot but Oklahoma is used to scoring that much in games and their prices are inflated. Cameron Clark has been pretty poor lately and is really the only cheap option here, but who can trust him? I do not like Spangler as he could struggle against the bigs of Baylor who is better defensively in the paint. Jordan Woodard appears to have pushed through the freshman wall and is really playing well, he is definitely in play in this game as well.
UCLA 80 at USC 72
UCLA
One of the latest games on the schedule pits the solid team of UCLA against the offensively challenged USC team. Kyle Anderson again makes one of the top plays of the day here. A triple threat player who has a great matchup against a team who has absolutely no one who can check a player of his caliber. Anderson could get a lot of rebounds and putbacks here as USC gives up a lot of offensive rebounds. Jordan Adams is the #2 guy and should also have a nice game but Anderson is clearly the better option, even for value. USC struggles more against the 2 than the 3. The problem with UCLA is that the complimentary options to Anderson and Adams don’t get consistent minutes and have no consistent production. LaVine and Alford are gambles that could pay off but I would shy away from using them in H2H games.
USC
This should be one of the highest tempo games of the night. Both USC and UCLA love to run, so I will most likely be trying to target a lot of players from these games. Pe’Shon Howard was awful in the last game but was solid in the 3 before. He brings a lot of upside especially in this run and gun game and I like him as an option here. Omar Oraby is basically a 10-6 lock which brings no upside but if the salary is right he could fill a role. Byron Wesley is the stud of this team and should get a lot of looks today. If USC is going to compete in this game I think Wesley could reach the 30 point barrier with up to 10 rebounds. Wesley’s upside is off the charts here and I really like him.
West Virginia 71 at Kansas 85
West Virginia
Juwan Staten continued to be a stud against Oklahoma and if you want to take him here I couldn’t blame you. Kansas doesn’t exactly have the best perimeter defense, but you will have to pay for him. Terry Henderson and Eron Harris are the other guys in play in this one but with Harris’ big game against OU his price will have risen. The WVU frontcourt is something of of a mess with no one bringing down consistenly over 20 minutes, so just avoid that situation altogether especially against Kansas’ bigs.
Kansas
Kansas has not scored over 70 points and has been held to under 70 possessions in both of the last 2 games, both away. They should get a boost in this one as they should be able to score at will against West Virginia’s poor defense. I like Embiid, Wiggins and Ellis in this game and think all could make value. Tharpe is definitely not a terrible play either but some games he completely disappears.
Duke 87 at Boston College 72
Duke
The Boston College defense is just completely dreadful. Duke is going to look to get out and run in this game and they should score at will. This makes Parker, Hood, Jefferson, and Sulaimon solid plays. I can even get on board using Quinn Cook in this game as I can see Coach K using this game to get him going. Cook has been struggling, his minutes have been dropping, and is definitely a risk but has upside if he can start playing the game the right way. Everyone is in play against Boston College and this game being at BC could keep it closer than if it was at Duke.
Boston College
There really isn’t much to say here; this is one of the most disappointing teams in the country. There is one weakness to Duke and that is to get the ball inside on their weak inside D and I think Ryan Anderson could pay off his value here. Eddie Odio is near min priced everywhere and could make a solid gamble in this one. Olivier Hanlan has been a great disappointment lately, and ended up sitting not starting 3 games ago. I actually think he is cheap enough on a site like Draftstreet to take a gamble on today as the ball should be in his hands a lot.
Auburn 73 at LSU 82
Auburn
Well, look here, Auburn has won 3 straight behind the hands of KT Harrell and Chris Denson. Now they play LSU at LSU who is much better than any of the 3 teams they have previously played. The upside? LSU is nearly impossible to score on in the paint but Denson and Harrell are guards and should be able to abuse the LSU guards. They are both really expensive but if you want a sure thing, Auburn feeds them the ball on every possession for them to score. I definitely think both will have a solid game here. There really isn’t anyone else on Auburn I would target as all of their bigs will struggle against LSU.
LSU
LSU comes home after a crushing loss to Georgia who got the bigs in foul trouble and abused LSU all over the place. The good thing? Johnny O’Bryant’s price will have dropped and so will have Shavon Coleman’s. I really like JOB tonight against Auburn’s bigs and one of LSU’s trees, O’Bryant, Martin, or Mickey are going to have a monster game today. Mickey and O’Bryant are the better candidates but all 3 make solid plays relative to their salary today.
Injury and Value Play News and Notes:
Kenny Chery: Probable for Baylor’s game against Oklahoma, if limited, Gary Franklin steps into PG role
Ian Miller: Questionable for FSU vs Maryland, if Miller cannot go Thomas and Bookert get big bumps
Trae Golden: Questionable for Ga. Tech against Virginia. Not a good play even if he plays and I wouldn’t even look for a replacement against Virginia
Javan Felix: Should play today against K-State, not a great play against K-State defense. If he cannot go, look to Isaiah Taylor again
Some cheap gambles I like:
Fred Thomas
Andrew Chrabascz
Eddie Odio
Damian Jones
Dominic Artis
Maurice Walker