College Basketball Grind Down: Tue, Jan 21st
MLK Day was a very low scoring affair in college basketball, especially with the late scratch news of TJ Warren who nearly everyone owned on DraftStreet. That just gives me another reason to dislike Mark Gottfried other than that he never seems to get the best out of his players. Anyways, this is not the place to complain about coaches as we’re supposed to be talking CBB DFS.
Tonight seems to be a slate in which the only competitive games will be between bad teams with slow tempos, which will make me target the teams who will be doing the blowouts just a little bit more. There are 4 big home favorites in MSU, Kentucky, UConn, and SMU which should provide value for their players.
Kansas State 64 at Texas 67
Kansas State
Marcus Foster is battling some injuries and only played 13 minutes last agme opening up 32 minutes for another Freshman in Jevon Thomas. There are a lot worse value options you could choose here other than Thomas as he plays a solid point guard, and does not turn it over. Thomas is cheap and will get you some assists but he has struggled to make a difference in the scoring column so far. Foster is in a great spot here as well but I want to know more about his status before plugging him in. I think Gipson could struggle as Texas has a bunch of big bodies inside that Gipson may have trouble moving off the block like he usually does to smaller post players. I like Shane Southwell as well as K-State will get a tempo boost from the Longhorns.
Texas
Texas is at home, but they are against the 12th best defensive efficiency team in the nation and also one of the absolute slowest. Texas is coming off 4 of 5 games playing at 74+ possessions where this one will probably only reach the mid 60’s. I cannot see any upside for any of the Texas players here and I think they are all overpriced from the previous speed. I really think K-State controls this game ever at Erwin and comes away with a win. I’m avoiding all Texas today.
Missouri 68 at LSU 71
Missouri
This is somewhat of an inbetween game which could provide value for both sides. Missouri has played well in uptempo games this year, beating West Virginia and UCLA in 70+ possession games but they have also lose to Georgia and Vanderbilt as well. Jabari Brown is hot right now and makes a solid play. I also like Jordan Clarkson a lot in this one as the 2 Missouri guards should be able to have their way against the lower tier LSU backcourt. I would stay away from Johnathan Williams as he is inconsistent, price is elevated because of last game and LSU has trees inside. Earnest Ross also makes a solid play. Basically target the Missouri guards and avoid the forwards.
LSU
One of Johnny O’Bryant’s best games came last game against Vandy where he put up 22 points and 12 rebounds. When given the minutes and the useage, JOB3 is an unstoppable force. The problem here is that Jordan Mickey and Jarell Martin are cutting into his fantasy value taking rebounds and post looks. He does not make a bad play at all but I am just too scared of his duds this year to roster him across the board. Mickey has had a couple of average games sandwiching a horrible game where he played 41 minutes and scored 2 points with 5 rebounds. Mickey makes a better play on FanDuel with his blocks, but he also has put up some duds and is not a sure thing. None of the LSU guards are getting me excited either as Hickey, Stringer and Morgan are all having subpar seasons. If you take someone, take a forward but it’s a risky proposition against a slow team.
Clemson 53 at Pittsburgh 61
Clemson
Like usual, the only player here to be aware of is KJ McDaniels, but I would not even think of using him here. He is way too expensive for a slow team who is going to a slow team who plays great at home. This could be an ugly, ugly game, and Clemson’s players are a clear avoid for me.
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is not as clear of an avoid as Clemson for me, but when you are searching for upside for your top dollar options, I am going tow ant more than 57 possessions. Last game against Syracuse, Patterson went for 18-3-2 which was not near his value on most sites. Zanna is the one guy I would play if I had to play one; tough man-to-man defense usually results in a lot of rebounds and Zanna is the rebound king here. I expect Pitt to struggle a little bit out of the gate adjusting from the tough zone of Cuse to the tough man-to-man of Clemson but eventually gets it together. Only projected at 57 possessions makes this a fade though.
Purdue 62 at Northwestern 63
Purdue
Purdue likes to play fast but the extra possessions are wasted on all of their players as Painter continues to play 10 guys double digit minutes. Terone is and should be getting the most run out of all the players but has a small upside against the snail of Northwestern. AJ Hammons can give you 40 point upside but he is a miss more often than a hit, and Ronnie Johnson showed you last game why you cannot trust this Painter team to provide a worthwhile fantasy option. Just slide right past Purdue here against the 333rd tempo ranked team and 19th ranked defensive team in Northwestern.
Northwestern
It is incredible how horrible Northwestern’s offense is but I would really see some value for them here. Purdue is fast, and Northwestern is playing at home with some confidence after beating Illinois and Indiana. Sobolewski has not been cleared to play with his concussion, which is probably a good thing. This means that Tre Demps will get more run as he is probably Northwestern’s best perimeter shooter. Drew Crawford should play the entire game and is definitely in play today, he could be in for another monster game after heating up against Indiana. I would give the green light to Olah and JerShon Cobb as well as they are pretty cheap and should make value all playing 35 minutes per game with the small bench Northwestern has right now.
Butler 60 at Providence 66
Butler
I never pick teams because I think the game will go into overtime, but Butler is almost a guarantee it seems. They have played 6 overtime games, one of them being a 2 overtime game and 4 of the last 6 games as well have gone to OT. Kam Woods is the best rebounder on this team and you can bet he will pull down another 10 today, the issue is can he score? Providence has some tall bodies, so I am a bit wary of him. Khyle Marshall will score, and score often, but his desire to rebound the basketball appears to have dissipated. Both guys bring a floor on each stat but a floor of 0 on athe other stat; that is not something I really like when picking players. I really like Kellen Dunham and think he can get open for some shots today against Providence but I am not loving Butler’s matchup. If I was going to play anyone I would go Dunham but he’s most likely too expensive.
Providence
Speaking of Butler OTs, Providence has gone to OT 3 of the last 6 with 2 2OT games thrown in there. Bryce Cotton does not get enough credit for what he does. Cotton has been an absolute ironman for this team, and will be on the court the entire game and grab you at least 20 points and at least 5 assists with extras thrown in there. Butler cannot stop anyone off the ball so I think we could be in line for a great game from Cotton. You’ll have to pay, but he is a sure thing. LaDontae Henton is solid and will play the entire game as well, however has a bit less upside than Cotton. Kadeem Batts is still heavily used in the offense, and his string of poor games in Providence losses shouldn’t scare you away if he is cheap. Tyler Harris is the other guy here, and if you were not sure, Tobias Harris is his brother and they have some striking similarities in their games. Tyler gets rebounds assists and points and can rack up value pretty easily for you. It’s hard to hate any of the top 4 Providence players tonight.
Georgia Tech 68 at Boston College 72
Georgia Tech
The Yellow Jackets looked absolutely dreadful agaonst a horrible Miami team who held the game to 55 possessions and Tech to 42 points. Boston College cannot defend the 3, but it doesn’t matter because Georgia Tech cannot shoot it. Daniel Miller is about the only one I would consider here as he should be able to get some bunnies inside against a BC team who does not believe in defense. Tech is a mess.
Boston College
Boston College has been really disappointing and has lost a lot of games but they have been competitive at home. The one good thing is that they have a solid offense and are going to be playing a team who is faster than them. Olivier Hanlan is back in play in this game as is Ryan Anderson. Lonnie Jackson has been playing 30 mpg lately and is also in play with 3 straight double digit games. You should be able to find some cheaper guys on the BC roster tonight and I think they provide good value.
Notre Dame 64 at Florida State 78
Notre Dame
I hate the matchup for Notre Dame here going to a Florida State team who has one of the best defenses in the ACC and is off of a shellacking by Virginia for the 2nd time this season. I am not too high on Sherman as FSU has a rotating door of tall centers who can really make it difficult for Sherman to get anything inside. I think your best bet here is going to be Pat Connaughton who should be in the right place at the right time, but FSU has an intense pressure defense which will really hamper Notre Dame’s offense. I would avoid the Irish today.
Florida State
A good matchup for FSU on offense here as they struggle turning the ball over but Notre Dame refuses to pressure you into turning it over. The minutes is the major problem here. I like Aaron Thomas here and I also think that Okaro White will have a very solid game. Most other FSU guys like Bookert, Brandon, and Miller are really risky. Bookert has issues staying on the court, Brandon is not involved enough in the offense, and all Miller does is shoot 3’s. Stick with the 2 top options and you should be fine.
Indiana 64 at Michigan State 80
Indiana
The Hoosiers travel to Breslin today after being completely dismantled in their first game by Michigan State. In that game, Ferrell had a sub-par game, Vonleh did not play well, and no one really did much of anything. Hollowell was dressed but who knows if he will play since Tom Crean noted “we will put him in when we put him in”. Evan Gordon should get the start again and will make for a different look for the Hoosiers. Gordon should make for a nice 15 point value option with 30 point upside if he gets hot, however Michigan State’s defense is not the team to do it against. I think Vonleh has a much better game without Payne patrolling the paint as well, and he is back in play. I would still consider fading Ferrell tonight. Sheehey twisted an ankle last game, so I am avoiding him.
Michigan State
Most likely no Payne again today which means continued extra minutes for Costello, Gauna, Kaminsky and Valentine. Denzel may not be a scorer but he contributes in a ton of ways making him a viable fantasy option. I am loving MSU for value today against a quick Indiana team. Gary Harris may be my favorite play of the day as he went off for 26-4-2 against Indiana last time and should be asked to carry more of the scoring load today. Appling is also definitely in play as is Branden Dawson. I expect a lot of points from this MSU team; having 2 or 3 is not necessarily terrible.
Texas A&M 59 at Kentucky 73
Texas A&M
The Aggies are not a team I would target todayas I am fairly certain they are going to struggle against the height of Kentucky. Jamal Jones has stepped up as the #1 option for Texas A&M here and has scored over 20 points in 3 straight, continue to use him on sites which are slower to update salaries. The other guy I would consider here is Alex Caruso who will play the point and could be good for some assists if the Aggies can knock down some shots. I am not really a fan of anyone else against a pretty tough Kentucky D, considering this offense is horrible.
Kentucky
Willie Cauley-Stein has been absolutely dreadful lately. I thought it was just foul trouble why he only played 18 minutes against Arkansas, but Calipari only played him 19 minutes against Tennessee because he was just so bad. Instead, Poythress and Johnson got his minutes, but neither produced. It was the Andrew Harrison show who magically made every free throw and half of his field goals. I am going to go out on a limb and say that does not happen again. I think James Young bounces back in this one and that Kentucky looks to get Julius Randle a lot of touches against a suspect front line of Texas A&M.
Temple 66 at Connecticut 80
Temple
Closely monitor Will Cummings status as if he does not suit up again Josh Brown would make another speculative play. Anthony Lee was a beast inside against LaSalle and will get near 15 shot attempts in this game as well. I am not a fan of UConn’s front line so I think Lee could have a really solid game. I also like Quentin DeCosey in this one who was the most used player while on the court against LaSalle. UConn is big favorites so be careful with Temple players.
Connecticut
Ryan Boatright is taking the time to go to his cousin’s funeral who was murdered last week and will not play this game. Boatright’s absence makes Shabazz Napier a very very strong play today as Napier will do almost all of the ball handling. Omar Calhoun will also get added minutes and could make a solid min-price play. DeAndre Daniels will get a depression in salary from his game against Louisville where he as was absolutely dreadful with 3 points and 4 rebounds. Temple is a completely different team and Daniels will certainly rebound. Brimah could make a solid play on FanDuel as he should be able to get it done blocking Temple in this one.
Rutgers 62 at SMU 80
Rutgers
I am not too excited about this game for Rutgers as they should get wiped out by SMU. If you want to take anyone from Rutgers, look at their 3 point shooters, Mack, Moore and maybe Seagears, but I would not touch Kadeem Jack. SMU is the top 2 point defensive team in the country and nothing will be easy at Moody Coliseum for Rugers.
SMU
Markus Kennedy is a stud and should be rostered as such without Moreira in the lineup. Other than Kennedy, the lineup gets a bit murky. I like Nic Moore who had a poor game last time out but is usually good for 5-7 assists and should be even more against Rutgers. Larry Brown likes to spread his minutes around so be careful in this one as Russell, Manuel, Cunningham, Williams, and Frazier are all risky picks.