College Football Grind Down: Late Slate - Page Two

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-09-12 19:37:20

Temple Owls at Cincinnati Bearcats – O/U 54.5

Temple

Temple had some solid pre-season buzz surrounding their defense, and they came out and locked down the Penn State offense. This will be a tougher test for them as Cincinnati is a more potent offense than Penn State. Offensively, their three primary playmakers are their QB, P.J. Walker, their RB, Jahad Thomas, and top WR, Robbie Anderson. Robby Anderson had a disappointing opening game, but is very cheap on DK at just $3,400. I’m expecting more offense than in their opener against Penn State, and think he makes for a solid punt option at a FLEX position on DK. Thomas was the workhorse in the opener as he had 29 carries, and put up a very impressive 135 yards and two TDs against a very tough PSU run defense. He’s still cheap on FD at just $6,000, and Cincinnati only returns one starter along their defensive line, and is one of my top options on FD. P. J. Walker is a wildcard at QB for me. He’s been tough to peg as he had a quality 2013 season and flashed solid dual threat upside. However, last year was a disappointment and he was very up and down. I could see him as a cheap QB option here, but can’t trust him for cash game purposes.

Cincinnati

Cincinnati should score plenty of points this season as Gunner Kiel has plenty of weapons at his disposal. The question here is whether that Temple defense is as legit as it appeared in the opener, or whether Christian Hackenberg and the PSU offensive line made it look better than it really is. They have a solid 30 point team total, but we’ll see higher from them this season. The primary problem with them is that even if we can expect production, it’s tough to nail down where that production will come from (outside of Kiel). They have three talented RBs in Hosey Williams, Tion Green, and Mike Boone, and all logged double digit carries in the opener. Likewise at WR, the spread the ball around to Shaq Washington,Chris Moore, Mekale McKay and even Max Morrison.Gunner Kiel is sub $8,000 on both FD and DK, so I don’t hate taking a shot with him, and Mekale McKay and Chris Moore are very cheap on FD. Overall, I’m not sure what to make of this Temple defense but it could very well be legit and with other pivots, I’ll mostly be looking elsewhere this week.

LSU Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs – O/U 50

LSU

Last year this was a matchup I would avoid as Mississippi State was very stout defensively as they put up a surprising 10 win season. However, they lost a ton of starters and only return three starters on defense. Unfortunately, we didn’t get a look at LSU last week as their opener was postponed due to weather. That means their young QB, Brandon Harris ,will be making his first start on the road in a rowdy environment. That’s a situation I typically just avoid and this wasn’t a good passing attack last year so he’s not on my radar. The same rings true for their wide receivers, but I don’t mind taking a shot with Travin Dural in a tournament. He won’t see a ton of volume but he’s a big play waiting to happen if Harris can hit him, and this Mississippi State was victimized through the air frequently last year.

LSU tends to be a run heavy team on a year to year basis and I’d expect nothing different this season as they have one of the top young RB in the nation in Leonard Fournette. As mentioned State lost a lot upfront and Fournette’s price tag sticks out like a sore thumb on Fanduel. He’s very pricey on DK so I’m not necessarily looking his way there, but at just $6,900 he’s a great option on Fanduel and Vegas has him with a great TD prop at -320 (credit to DB730’s twitter on that one).

Mississippi State

In addition to their defensive losses, the Bulldogs also lost a lot offensively as they return jut four starters. They do return their key piece though in Heisman candidate Dak Prescott. He had a big game in this matchup last year as he ran for 100 yards and a TD, and also threw for 268 yards and two TDs. On the plus side, he will see heavy volume in this one, but on the negative side this LSU secondary should be one on the best in the country, and the Bulldogs are actually home dogs with a team total of only 23. He’s one of the best QBs in the nation so I don’t hate the play, but I think there are better spots for him and there are other QBs I personally prefer.

At RB, I think Ashton Shumpert is a step down from Josh Robinson and he’s not a guy I’m looking towards. De’Runnya Wilson will be Dak’s top target, especially in the red zone, and carries a solid price point for a player of his caliber. Overall, I typically just avoid the LSU secondary so I’ll have very little exposure to him, if any.

Boise State Broncos at Brigham Young Cougars – O/U 55

Boise State

I think this BYU secondary is one that can be picked on this season and it showed in the opener against Nebraska, but I also came away unimpressed with Boise’s new QB, Ryan Finley. The Boise coaches thought he played fine, but I have my questions about him, which makes it tough for me to target the Boise passing attack, even in a positive matchup. With Finley struggling, Boise leaned on their new starting RB, Jeremy McNichols, who had a productive day with 24 carries for 89 yards and two TDs. However this is strength against strength as Boise State held the Nebraska run game in check and return three defensive starters along their line. I don’t love this matchup for the Boise offense so I’ll likely just pass here.

BYU

BYU won the battle but lost the war in their opener as they beat Nebraska on a hail mary on the final play, but also lost their star QB, Taysom Hill, to a season ending injury for the second consecutive year. Hill’s injury really puts a damper on the offensive outlook for this team as they’re a team who lacks an effective running presence due to Jamaal Williams’s suspension. Hill’s replacement,Tanner Mangum* is a former 4 star recruit, but he’s unproven, and this Boise defense controlled Washington and is thought to be their conference’s best defense. Vegas does like some points in this one, but it’s tough for me to nail down where they come from with any confidence, and I’d lean to the under in this one. If you are looking to get some exposure to the BYU passing game, Mitch Matthews and Nick Kurtz both go 6’5 plus and will be Mangum’s top targets.

UCLA Bruins at UNLV Rebels – O/U 65.5

UCLA

The big story for UCLA out of Week 1 was the play of their heralded freshman Josh Rosen as he lived up to the all the hype against a solid Virginia defense. He completed 80% of his pass attempts and threw for 351 yard and three TDs. The only downside for DFS purposes was that he really spread the ball around and didn’t look like a young QB that locks onto a particular WR. While that’s a great sign for him individually, it’s bad for us as DFS players. Jordan Payton was the guy last year, and I’d still expect him to emerge as Rosen’s top option, but I’ll pass this week and see if Rosen seems to settle on a favorite WR.

Paul Perkins had a quiet opener as it was all about Rosen, but I think Perkins gets a bigger piece of the pie in this one. He’s had a solid price drop on some sites at sub $8,000 on both FD and DK, and he was outstanding last year. The UNLV run defense was awful last season and with all of the attention on Rosen, I think Perkins slides in here with a big game of his own.

UNLV

UNLV is expected to get smoked here, and the only player I’m interested in is Devante Boyd. He’s a talented WR and by far the best option on UNLV so they’ll look to get the ball in his hands as often as possible. With UNLV trailing throughout and UCLA likely getting some of their 2nd and 3rd string some game action, I could see Boyd racking up some garbage stats here at a very affordable price tag, particularly on FD where he is only $5,000.

UCF Knights at Stanford Cardinal – O/U 45.5

UCF

UCF was only able to muster up 14 points against FIU in their opener, and now they have to travel to face a plodding Stanford that is traditionally very tough on defense. Stanford didn’t look quite as good defensively as they have in years past, but this is still a tough matchup. The UCF run game was shut down in the opener and I’d completely avoid it. The only potential play here I’m considering would be Jordan Akins who was Justin Holman’s favorite target in week as he registered nine receptions for over 100 yards and two TDs. Overall, I think this is an offense to avoid.

Stanford

Stanford was a weak offensive unit last season, and they really struggled in the opener as they were only able to produce 6 points. Kevin Hogan is a game manager and not a guy I target. Christian McCaffrey had solid buzz coming into the season, and while he did get involved in the passing game with five receptions, he only had 12 carries. Based on that he’d be a DK only play for me, and even then I’m not in love with it. Austin Hooper is a solid TE and Stanford will use their TE’s so he’d the guy I’d most likely target on a site like FD where a TE is required.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at New Mexico Lobos – O/U 75

Tulsa

This is a DK only game, but make sure you do not overlook it as it is the game to target in the late slate on DK. Vegas has this one projected for 75 total points, and I’m expecting a shoot out similar to last weekend’s game involving Tulsa and New Mexico. With Tulsa hiring the old Baylor offensive coordinator, they are going to play at a breakneck pace, and they also feature a bad defense. That means anytime they land in the game slate, it’s time to load up on both sides.

Dane Evans didn’t get the price bump that I expected so after a big Week 1, I’ll go right back to the well here. He looked good in his new offensive system as he came through for 424 passing yards and three total TDs last week. He draws another prime matchup as New Mexico was a poor defense last year as they allowed 36 PPG and were sub-par against the run and the pass. He has one elite WR in Keevan Lucas, and another very good one in Keyarris Garrett, at his disposal so I’m expecting another big outing, and I’ll grab him while he’s still under $8,000.

You’re going to have to pay for Keevan Lucas this week, but if there’s one player to spend up for on this slate it’s him. He looks like a guy who is going to finish as the top fantasy wide receiver this year as he quickly took the new offense last week with 10 receptions for 193 yards and two Tds. If you can’t quite swing his tag, then Keyarris Garrett makes for a solid consolation prize. Baylor has produced two receivers with over 800 receiving yards in each of the last four season, and Tulsa looks like they’ll do the same this year. He’s playing second fiddle to Lucas, but he’s very talented in his own right, and had five receptions for 163 yards in the opener.

Even though they are an uptempo spread team, Tulsa will get their running backs very involved just like at Baylor. That was evident in the opener as Zack Langer had 24 carries and D’Angelo Brewer had 16. I was on Brewer some last weekend as he was minimum price, but Langer looks like he’s the guy to own. He’s the much bigger back so he’ll get the important goal line carries and cashed in on them for three Tds last week. New Mexico was particularly weak on the ground last year as they allowed 270 rushing YPG and 5.8 YPC.

New Mexico

Similar to last week, I think you can stack this Tulsa/New Mexico game with both QBs, as Vegas is expecting a shootout. Lamar Jordan is a very cheap QB2 at just $5,300 and helps you spend up for a guy like Lucas. I do think he come with more risk than Jaquez Johnson from last week as Jordan plays in a run heavy option offense, so you’re not getting much of a floor at all from him in the passing department (his season high in pass attempts was 18 last year, and he had five games with under 10 passing attempts). However, he’ll log double digit carries and Tulsa allowed 97 rushing yards to FAU QB, Jaquez Johnson, in the opener. They were also among the worst rush defenses in the country last year, and in Week 1 they came out and allowed 300 rushing yards to FAU. This is a rushing defense to attack so Jordan should have success on the ground. Typically I don’t like rostering option QBs in cash games as they do have a lot of volatility. However, some of that volatility is mitigated by the fact that he is very cheap on DK, as well as the sky high total in this one. The one issue I’m monitoring is whether he’ll play all the snaps as UNM did get their backup QB in early last game for a series and then went back to Jordan. It’s a situation to keep an eye on, but I’m expecting him to play the majority of the snaps.

Jhurell Pressley is my favorite play from New Mexico in this one and I’ll have exposure to him in all formats. He’s coming off of a solid year that saw him produce 1,100 yards and 12 TDs. New Mexico does have another quality running back in Teriyon Gipson in their triple option attack, but he missed Week 1 due to meniscus surgery and I haven’t been able to find anything about his playing status in Week 2. If we get word that he’s a go then he’s another player to consider from this one, but he sounds very questionable. That should mean increased touches for Pressley, and I’m going to get some exposure to both Pressley and Jordan in my lineups, as Tulsa may take away one of them based on how they play the option, but they won’t take away both (and more than likely won’t slow down either one).

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