College Football Grind Down: Week 2 - Page Three

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-09-12 14:26:25

Washington State Cougars at Rutgers Scarlet Knights – O/U 63

Breakdown

This is one of the few games in the early slate with a total above 60, and it’s a game that I really like a few plays from. Washington State is coming off one of the more embarrassing offensive performances in the Mike Leach as they lost to FCS Portland State 24-17. That game was played in the rain and it’s tough to keep a Mike Leach offense down for too long. I’m hoping last week’s performance keeps their ownership down as I like them for a big bounce offensively here. The Rutgers secondary is ripe to be picked on as they suspended four players in their secondary just prior to the season and are very young with some true freshman seeing playing time. This one has a close spread and I’m thinking it turns into a typical Washington State shootout

This is a nice spot for Rutgers, but it’s tough to nail down anyone other than their star WR, Leonte Carroo. They were a run heavy team last year and in their opener they had 15 pass attempts to 47 rush attempts. I wouldn’t expect that big of a disparity as some of that was due to game flow in a 63-13 win, but they’re certainly not a team that airs it out. Chris Laviano will draw the start and he threw for 3 second half TDs against Norfolk State, all of which were hauled in by Carroo. Laviano is not a guy I’m looking towards as his volume worries me. In terms of their running game, they have 4 RB atop their depth chart and split carries between Paul James (15) and Josh Hicks (18) in the opener, with Robert Martin also getting involved (10).

Washington State

Elite Options

Luke Falk (FD: $8,900, DK: $9,300) – Falk messed up some solid lineups for me last week on DK, but I’m going back to the well this week. QB is very thin in the early slate, and I love the volume that Falk presents. Washington State was a little more run heavy than normal last week in the rain, and he still attempted 41 passes. I’d expect that number to climb to at least 50 this week and the Rutgers secondary is very thin due to suspension. They’re very young and I think Falk exposes them with a big outing. The one thing to watch here is his health as he was unable to finish the last game. However, based on practice reports, he’s been practicing and is expected to start against Rutgers.

Washington State receivers – Dom Williams (FD: $5,500, DK: $5,000), Gabe Marks (FD: $6,800, DK: $6,400) and River Cracraft (FD: $5,700, DK: $6,900) are the primary three to know here. Williams and Marks were the top targets in Game 1, but all three will take turns this year, and each is capable of putting up a big game, and I’ll have exposure to all three. Based on pricing, I’d expect Williams to be popular on DK and Cracraft to be popular on FD. That means in tournaments a solid strategy in a tournament on FD would be to pay up for Gabe Marks, or on DK to pay for Cracraft. That’s especially true because Cracraft is more of a PPR guy and makes for a better target on DK while Marks and Williams are their big play guys and red-zone options.

Secondary Options

NONE

Rutgers

Elite Options

Leonte Carroo (FD: $7,400, DK: $6,700) – He was suspended for the first of the season opener but made up for it quickly in the 2nd half as he hauled in three receptions for 129 yards and three Tds. He’s a big play guy and when Rutgers does look to pass they’re looking to get the ball in his hands. Washington State is typically a defense to target and this will be a pace up game for Rutgers, and they could be forced to the air more to keep up with the Cougars. He had a big game in this matchup last year with six receptions for 151 yards and a TD, and I’m expecting another big game from him this week.

Secondary Options

Paul James (FD: $6,900, DK: $5,800) and Josh Hicks (FD: $7,200, DK: $5,600) – I think Rutgers has a nice day on the ground here. However, it’s tough to figure out where the production will come from as James and Hicks split carries in the opener, and neither is particularly cheap. That means they’re GPP options for me, and if I’m choosing I’ll give the slight lean towards the senior in Paul James, who has been very good when he’s healthy.

Fresno State Bulldogs at Ole Miss Rebels – O/U 55

Breakdown

This is a really tricky game to break down for me as it’s right on the line of where you start worrying about a blowout as Ole Miss is favored by 29 here. What adds to the dilemma is that the Rebels have Alabama next weekend. Further complicating matters is that last weeks’ game got completely out of hand so we don’t have much of a feel at all about the Rebels’ volume distribution offensively. Chad Kelly will draw the start, but it sounds like all three quarterbacks could once again play. As far as Fresno State goes, I’m just avoiding them. Ole Miss is very stout defensively and is a team I’ll be avoiding in most instances this season. You could take a look at Martez Waller or Chad Olsen, but I’ll be looking elsewhere

Fresno State

Elite Options

NONE

Secondary Options

NONE

Ole Miss

Elite Options

Laquon Treadwell (FD: $5,800, DK: $5,600) – Treadwell is one of the most talented wide receivers in CFB when he’s healthy. He’s working his way back from a season-ending injury last season and didn’t do a whole lot in the opener as things quickly got out of hand. If they have hopes of knocking off the Tide for a second consecutive year, they’re going to need Treadwell at full speed. Based on that I think they could look to get him going here and give him some confidence heading into next week. His price has dipped to below $6,000 on both sites, which is very cheap for a player with his skill set.

Secondary Options

Jaylen Walton (FD: $5,500, DK: $6,400) – I’d be more inclined to take a stab at him on FD than on DK as I do worry about some RBBC here, as well him potentially not getting goal line carries. Walton is tiny at just 5’8 and the Rebels brought in JUCO running back Akeem Judd, who goes 220+ so Walton is a guy that you’ll likely need to break off of a long run. However, he is certainly capable of that and it showed in the opener as he broke off two long TD runs. I’m not ready to trust him in a cash game setting, but he’s in play as a tournament option.

Cody Core (FD: $4,600, DK: $4,800) – This is a FD specific play if you need a punt WR3 for a GPP. I was playing around with some lineups and needed a $4,600 WR on FD, and Core is the guy I plugged in. He lacks consistency so I’m not going there in cash games, but he has some big-play potential and hauled in a 51 yard TD pass in the opener. Treadwell is the safer bet in my opinion, but Core has big play potential and all it takes is one to pay off his tag on FD.

I liked what I saw from Chad Kelly (FD: $7,400, DK: $7,700) in the opener and was hoping Ole Miss would name him as the starter at QB this week, and not rotate QBs. That, unfortunately, didn’t happen and it sounds like all 3 QB’s will see sometime again, although Kelly will get the first series. That makes him a very risky play, as we simply don’t know what the rotation at QB will look like.

Toledo Rockets at Arkansas Razorbacks – O/U 56

Breakdown

Toledo is one of the best teams in the MAC and is expected to keep this one within shouting distance so the Arkansas top offenses targets look safe to deploy. They have former Alabama QB, Philip Ely, and a very good backfield. Unfortunately, Kareem Hunt will be suspended so it will be the Terry Swanson show. Toledo is a team I will target this year once they hit MAC play, but I’ll fade them in this matchup.

Toledo has some talent offensively, but they’ll be missing one of their starting defensive ends and will be giving up lots of size to Arkansas’ monstrous offensive line. Last week was the Brandon Allen show, but I think we see Alex Collins get involved this weekend.

Toledo

Elite Options

NONE

Secondary Options

NONE

Arkansas

Elite Options

Alex Collins (FD: $9,300, DK: $8,900) – He disappointed last weekend as Brandon Allen threw for four touchdowns, and he only registered 12 carries. However, he averaged 10 YPC, and I’m not expecting Allen to go 14-18 with four touchdowns this week. Collins is a former five-star recruit and a big time talent. I’d expect his carries to creep closer to 20 this week and I’m expecting a multiple touchdown game out of him.

Secondary Options

Keon Hatcher (FD: $7,200, DK: $6,100) & Hunter Henry (FD: $2,800, DK: $3,400) – Brandon Allen looked much improved in the season opener and I’m sure some game log watchers will look his away again this week. However, his price is on the rise and this offense just isn’t pass heavy. At his price point, you’re going to want 300 passing yards and three Tds, and I think that’s stretching it on a week to week basis. He’s a guy that I think will settle into around 200 to 250 passing yards and two touchdowns so I’ll be fading him this weekend at his elevated tag. I’d rather grab a Keon Hatcher or Hunter Henry than Allen, as they are his two top targets. Hatcher had a big day last week with 6 receptions for over 100 yard and two TDS. He’s a big play guy and will the guy Arkansas looks to deep shots with when teams load the box. Henry disappointed, but he’s a guy I’ll continue to get exposure to on FD where they require a TE. He’s fairly cheap at $2,800, and he was second on the team last year in receiving.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Alabama Crimson Tide – O/U 56

Breakdown

I’m not touching MTSU against the Alabama defense, and this one boils down to whether you want to touch the Alabama running game in a blowout situation. I was hoping a WR would emerge from the pack as Lane Kiffin has force feed his WR1 in the past, but no one emerged between Robert Foster and Ardarius Stewart. It sounds crazy, but I’d currently be more in favor of taking a stab with Foster or Stewart in a GPP than targeting the Alabama running game.

It may come back to bite me, but I’m planning on fading the Alabama running game as I think they get multiple RBs involved here. Derrick Henry is an absolute beast and is going to have a monster year, and the matchup is prime so this looks like a great spot on paper. The problem is that they’re coming off of a physical game against Wisconsin and have Ole Miss up next week. They also have an upcoming stretch against Georgia, Arkansas, Texas A&M, and Mississippi State before they hit their bye week. That is a brutal stretch and I think Saban saves his RBs legs here. That is exactly what he did last year with a similar schedule. Alabama opened with West Virginia then had two patsies in FAU and Southern Miss before jumping into SEC play. Against FAU, eight different players had carries, and no RB had more than 7 carries. Against Southern Miss, eight different players again had carries, and Henry led the way with 11 rushing attempts. Saban tends to do things a certain way and if you look back during his tenure at Alabama, he’s frequently spread around the carries during these type of games. The past is the past and Henry is certainly capable of throwing up a big day on just 11 carries, but I’ll take the volume security with Alex Collins or Nick Chubb if I’m spending up. Some will also look to Kenyan Drake here, but I’m not expecting him to top 10 carries either as he’s coming off of a major injury and is an important piece this season. This isn’t the NFL where a team will ride their RB2 if their top RB is limited. Alabama has multiple 4 and 5-star RBs on their roster and can go very deep at the position.

Middle Tennessee

Elite Options

NONE

Secondary Options

NONE

Alabama

Elite Options

NONE

Secondary Options

Robert Foster (FD: $5,900, DK: $4,800) or Ardarius Stewart (FD: $5,900, DK: $4,300) – Like I said I’d be more inclined to take a shot here and hope that Alabama looks to get their passing game in gear heading into their tough SEC schedule. Both Foster and Steward are former high-level recruits, but this is a coin flip and I’d only have exposure on a low dollar GPP team.

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