College Football Grind Down: Week 2
Each week, one of the best CFB DFS minds out there, Andy “a25smith” Smith, will break down the upcoming college football slate to help you narrow down the best targets.
This analysis should point you in the right direction as you set your CFB DFS lineups, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there.
Editor’s Note: Haven’t heard? We’ve got CFB Incentives, which include full projections and expert picks from some of the top college football daily fantasy players out there. Find out more about our Incentives offerings here!
As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Miami (OH) RedHawks at Wisconsin Badgers – O/U 51
| Miami (OH) RedHawks | Wisconsin Badgers | ||||
| Rd. Proj. | Rd. Spread | Pace | Pace | Hm. Proj. | Hm. Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.25 | 32.5 | 68.83 | 68.38 | 41.75 | -32.5 |
| PaYd/G | RuYd/G | PaYd/G | RuYd/G | ||
| Offense | 277.75 | 102.58 | Offense | 150.85 | 314.00 |
| Opp Def | 144.54 | 95.77 | Opp Def | 234.33 | 199.92 |
| Opp Def Rank | 5th | 23rd | Opp Def Rank | 75th | 103rd |
Breakdown
There isn’t a lot to love in this one as Wisconsin is expected to roll and win this one along the lines of 42-10. Based on that Miami of Ohio team total I’m just crossing them off my list. The real question in this one is the health status of Corey Clement. He tweaked his groin against Alabama and was limited in the 2nd half. If he plays, I’ll likely just stay away from this game entirely as I think it’s risky to use big dollars for an RB with an iffy groin in a blowout. If he sits though his backups Dare Ogunbowale and Taiwan Deal become very interesting as value plays around the industry.
Miami (OH)
Elite Options
NONE
Secondary Options
NONE
Wisconsin
Elite Options
NONE
Secondary Options
Wisconsin RBs – As mentioned, I’m only interested if Clements sits this game out. Wisconsin uncharacteristically took to the air 39 times compared to only 21 rush attempts in their game against Alabama. I’m not buying a new found air attack from the Badgers as they fell behind and were facing one of the top defensive lines in all of college football. I’m expecting them to look to get their running game on track this weekend. We didn’t get a good look at the Redhawks in Week One as they faced Presbyterian, but they did allow 5.08 YPC last year, and Wisconsin should be able to push them around. In his press conference, Paul Chryst said there were no depth chart changes so that would indicate that Dale Ogunbolawe should draw the start if Clement sits. He showed nice hands out of the backfield against Alabama with six receptions for 39 yards and should find a ton more running room in this one. This is a situation I’d continue to monitor both as to whether Clement sits, and whether it’s Dale or Taiwan as RB1. If we do get confirmation that Clement sits then this becomes an elite source of value.
Houston Cougars at Louisville Cardinals – O/U 54
| Houston Cougars | Louisville Cardinals | ||||
| Rd. Proj. | Rd. Spread | Pace | Pace | Hm. Proj. | Hm. Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.25 | 13.5 | 73.33 | 72.33 | 33.75 | -13.5 |
| PaYd/G | RuYd/G | PaYd/G | RuYd/G | ||
| Offense | 225.25 | 183.42 | Offense | 246.83 | 149.42 |
| Opp Def | 199.17 | 94.92 | Opp Def | 198.25 | 136.33 |
| Opp Def Rank | 19th | 11th | Opp Def Rank | 26th | 41st |
Breakdown
Louisville lost a competitive game to Auburn in the opener and the big news coming out of that game was the emergence of freshman Lamar Jackson as the starting quarterback. Houston played a patsy in Tennessee Tech, but Greg Ward, Jr., looked good running the show for Tom Hermann, who was the offensive coordinator at Ohio State last year. Also of note is that Louisville will be missing their top wide receiver, James Quick, and with a true freshman QB, I’d expect to continue to see a run-heavy approach in this one.
Louisville
Elite Options
Brandon Radcliff (FD: $7,700, DK: $5,900) – Radcliff is my favorite mid-range running back option of the week. With Louisville going with the dual-threat true freshman, Lamar Jackson, they are going to be more of a running team, and Jackson will serve to keep the opposing defense from focusing too much on Radcliff. He’s the go-to guy in the red-zone and was able to produce two rushing TDs against a tough Auburn defensive line. Houston had a quality rush defense last year, but they’re replacing a few starters and Louisville averaged 5 YPC against the Tigers last week. He’ll be in line for around 20 carries, and with the Cardinals team total above 30, I’m expecting another multi-touchdown game out of Radcliff on Saturday.
Secondary Options
Lamar Jackson (FD: $5,800, DK: $6,100) – I debated as to whether include him as an elite option or secondary option. ON most weeks, he’d be strictly a GPP only option for me as he is a very young unproven QB, but the pickings are slim at QB in the early slate. Jackson is a true freshman that held some big offers before choosing Louisville (Clemson, Auburn, FSU, and Georgia to name a few). He’s a big-time athlete and if you’re rostering him it’s for his running ability as his passing is still a work in progress. He rushed for over a 100 yards and a touchdown against Auburn in his debut. With his running ability and his cheap price tag, he presents some upside if he can manage to just throw for around 150 yards and a TD. It’s always tough to trust a true freshman QB (not named Josh Rosen) and UH will have more film on him than Auburn did so I’d look to him more as an upside GPP play than a safe cash game play, but I do think he is cash game usable due to the weak QB options.
Houston
Elite Options
NONE
Secondary Options
Greg Ward, Jr. (FD: $8,000 , DK: $7,900) – This will be a tough test for the Cougars’ offense as the Cardinals held a potent Auburn offense to just over 300 total yards and forced three turnovers. I like Ward’s prospects on the season as he’s in a friendly system for dual threat QBs (as mentioned Tom Hermann was OC at Ohio State last season). He shined in the opener as he ran for 100 yards and a TD and also threw for 275 yards and a TD. Given the matchup, I was hoping he’d be a little cheaper so I do have other quarterbacks I prefer, but he has solid upside given his dual-threat abilities. If the Cardinal have any let down after the tough loss to Auburn, Ward can certainly make them pay with a big day.
Demarcus Ayers (FD: $5,700, DK: $6,000) – I don’t love the matchup here and he’s a guy I’d only use on like one or two GPP teams out of ten. However, his heavy usage in Game 1 deserved a mention as he produced 10 receptions for 121 yards, and also had 4 rushing attempts. He looks to be the Cougars’ go-to wide receiver, and should see heavy volume throughout the season. The Cougars’ running back Kenneth Farrow would normally deserve a look, but I’ll pass in this matchup.
Oregon State Beavers at Michigan Wolverines – O/U 45
| Oregon State Beavers | Michigan Wolverines | ||||
| Rd. Proj. | Rd. Spread | Pace | Pace | Hm. Proj. | Hm. Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.25 | 16.5 | 70.67 | 62.58 | 30.75 | -16.5 |
| PaYd/G | RuYd/G | PaYd/G | RuYd/G | ||
| Offense | 275.42 | 118.08 | Offense | 169.83 | 163.17 |
| Opp Def | 193.67 | 117.67 | Opp Def | 248.08 | 158.17 |
| Opp Def Rank | 17th | 13th | Opp Def Rank | 104th | 52nd |
Breakdown
From a fantasy perspective, there are much better games to target than this one. It carries a total under 50 and neither team pushes the pace. Oregon State hired the Wisconsin coach in the offseason and is transitioning to a run heavy offense. That was evident in the opener as they had 56 rush attempts to only 22 passing attempts. Michigan bottled up a very good running back in Devontae Booker so I’ll pass on the Oregon State running backs. Likewise, I didn’t see a whole lot to love from the Michigan offense. They did throw the ball 43 times, which did catch my eye, and OSU is rebuilding their linebacking corp and secondary, so the guy I’m most interested in is Michigan TE, Jake Butt.
Oregon State
Elite Options
NONE
Secondary Options
Seth Collins (FD: $6,600, DK: $6,500) – He’s another dual-threat freshman QB that is a much better runner than he is a passer. He ran for 152 yards on 17 carries in Oregon State’s opener, so there’s some rushing upside here. However, this is a tough Michigan defense and he’ll be making his first start on the road in a tough environment. I like to target that type of rushing upside at his price point, but given the matchup, I’ll hold off on him this week and hopefully catch him at a cheap price point down the road in a better spot.
Michigan
Elite Options
Jake Butt (FD: $3,700, DK: $4,400) – On FD, Butt is the go-to option at TE IF you are spending up at the position. Jim Harbaugh has always used his TEs effectively, and it showed in the opener as Butt had eight receptions for 93 yards and a touchdown. Michigan is limited offensively so I’d expect him to continue to be a focal point of their offense. Oregon State graduated their entire linebacker corp and only return 1 starter in the secondary so Butt should be in for another quality outing.
Secondary Options
Amara Darboh (FD: $6,500, DK: $5,100) – He wasn’t on my radar heading into Week 1, but he got my attention as he produced eight receptions for 101 yards and a TD. As mentioned, Michigan did throw the ball 43 times, and if there is that type of volume to go around then Darboh should continue to be fantasy relevant. I’m not sold that Michigan will be that pass heavy and with the low Vegas total, I’m not chasing Darboh’s points from last week in cash games. I don’t hate taking a stab with him in GPPs as I do think this OSU secondary is exploitable, but he’s a guy I’d only plugin on like ten percent of my teams (if you’re running multiple lineups) as I need to see more than a one game sample size.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Syracuse Orange – O/U 43
| Wake Forest Demon Deacons | Syracuse Orange | ||||
| Rd. Proj. | Rd. Spread | Pace | Pace | Hm. Proj. | Hm. Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.25 | 4.5 | 64.00 | 67.17 | 23.75 | -4.5 |
| PaYd/G | RuYd/G | PaYd/G | RuYd/G | ||
| Offense | 176.33 | 39.75 | Offense | 183.67 | 146.42 |
| Opp Def | 209.92 | 139.25 | Opp Def | 186.58 | 182.67 |
| Opp Def Rank | 38th | 27th | Opp Def Rank | 22nd | 89th |
Breakdown
This game somehow makes the Oregon State and Michigan game look like a fantasy oasis. Syracuse lost their best fantasy option as their QB, Terrel Hunt, was lost for the year, and both teams have been abysmal offensively in recent years. Outside of Wake Forest TE Cam Serigne there just isn’t much here and it’s an easy fade in my eyes.
Wake Forest
Elite Options
Cam Serigne (FD: $2,000, DK: $3,600) – This is a FD only play as I’d only play him on sites where you have to play a TE. However, on FD this is a terrific price point and he saves you cap room at the best position to punt so that you can spend on a top flight QB, RB or WR. He’s the top receiving option for the Demon Deacons and he had three receptions for 60 yards and a TD in the season opener.
Secondary Options
NONE
Syracuse
Elite Options
NONE
Secondary Options
NONE
Massachusetts Minutemen at Colorado Buffaloes – O/U 62.5
| Massachusetts Minutemen | Colorado Buffaloes | ||||
| Rd. Proj. | Rd. Spread | Pace | Pace | Hm. Proj. | Hm. Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24.75 | 13 | 73.17 | 83.00 | 37.75 | -13 |
| PaYd/G | RuYd/G | PaYd/G | RuYd/G | ||
| Offense | 311.75 | 109.25 | Offense | 284.08 | 155.00 |
| Opp Def | 255.42 | 204.75 | Opp Def | 255.75 | 191.75 |
| Opp Def Rank | 98th | 96th | Opp Def Rank | ||
Breakdown
This is a FanDuel only game, but it is one of the better games to target so don’t overlook it. Outside of Washington State and Rutgers, this is my favorite game to target. Both these teams really struggled defensively last year as UMASS allowed 33 PPG and Colorado allowed 39. Both return the majority of their defense, but I’m not expecting drastic improvement and Vegas likes there to be points here.
UMASS
Elite Options
Tajae Sharpe (FD: $6,900) – UMASS is a pass heavy team and Sharpe is their go-to guy. He’s coming off of a 1,200-yard season that saw him rack up 85 receptions and 7 TDs. Colorado allowed 3 passing TDs to an average Hawaii passing attack and I’m loving his price point at sub $7,000.
Secondary Options
Blake Frohnapfel (FD: $7,600) – Frohnapfel missed the last two games of last year, but still had 437 passing attempts, including five games with 44 or more. The QB pool is weak and although Colorado is a PAC 12 team, I don’t mind him at all in GPPs, and given the weak QB crop he’s cash game playable as well. The Colorado defense doesn’t scare me and the Vegas line indicates that UMASS should be trailing and forced to the air a lot.
Rodney Mills, (FD: $3,000) – I think he’s a great under the radar TE option. He was one of Frohnapfel’s favorite targets last year with 489 receiving yards and five TD and is expected to play a bigger role as he moves from fullback to TE. He’s looked at as a utility guy for UMASS and Frohnapfel liked to target his TE as his TE last year, Jean Sifrin was one of the better TE options in CFB.
Colorado
Elite Options
Nelson Spruce (FD: $8,100)- Spruce had a disappointing opener as he produced only eight receptions for 69 yards. Colorado QB Sefo Liufau struggled through the air as he was only 23 for 40 so I expect Spruce’s number to increase if Sefo can get his accuracy under control. He’s a guy who piles up receptions in the Colorado offense and is a great cash and GPP play because the volume is always there.
Secondary Options
Sefo Liufau (FD: $8,100) – He was largely awful in the opener as he only threw for 158 yards and didn’t throw for a score. However, what drew my attention was his volume. He had 40 pass attempts and also had 18 rushing attempts. 58 touches is a huge number, especially against an exploitable defense like UMASS. He struggles with interceptions and accuracy at times, but he also flashed some big game upside last season, and he’s a guy I’ll have exposure to in tournaments.
Michael Adkins II (FD: $6,900) – The Colorado backfield has been one to avoid in years past as it’s been RBBC and very unpredictable. That could still be the case this season as the head coach said he’ll ride the hot hand. In Game 1 that was Adkins as he had 22 carries for 90 yards and two TDs, and it looks like he’ll at least get the first crack on a weekly basis. There’s still some volatility here and I prefer the Colorado passing game, but he should be a low owned option in one of the better fantasy games on the day.