College Football Picks: Austin Peay vs. Central Arkansas (UCA)
While college football fans have to wait for at least two more weeks to watch the Big 12 and ACC, and another two weeks after that for SEC football, those who can’t wait will have an FCS game to watch, and bet on, Saturday night.
Austin Peay and Central Arkansas face off on ESPN at 9 PM ET. If you’re craving college football action and looking for a solid matchup, this is your game.
Online sports betting sites currently have Central Arkansas as 4-point favorites, and the game’s Over/Under is 44.5.
Both teams are defending co-champs in their respective conferences, the Ohio Valley and the Southland. Ranked in the FCS Top 25, Central Arkansas enters the season ranked No. 11 after a 9-4 season while Austin Peay comes in at No. 13 on the heels of an 11-4 record following a deep run in the FCS Playoffs before losing to Montana State in the quarterfinals.
Even better, these two FCS Championship contenders are plenty familiar with one another. Austin Peay and UCA met up last September, and Central Arkansas rallied from behind scoring two touchowns in the fourth quarter to beat Austin Peay 24-16.
The quarterback who threw those two touchdowns was Breylin Smith, and the player on the receiving end was Lujuan Winningham — two players that will again line up across from Austin Peay defenders this Saturday.
Saturday Night College Football Preview: Austin Peay vs. Central Arkansas -4, O/U 44.5
Kickoff: Saturday, Aug. 29 at 9 PM ET
Where: Cramton Bowl – Montgomery, Alabama
TV: ESPN
Central Arkansas Bears
In addition to Smith and Winningham, Central Arkansas has 16 more starters back from last year’s squad.
Quarterback Breylin Smith looks to carry momentum from an impressive sophomore season in 2019, when he set the school’s single-season passing record with 3,704 yards. As a sophomore, Smith had two games with 400+ passing yards, plus two more games where he eclipsed 360 yards. Smith’s passes found the end zone 32 times, placing him in the top 10 of the FCS in both passing categories. Smith threw his fair share of interceptions, too, averaging just over one per game. Smith, 6’3 and 210 lbs, should demonstrate better decision making with another year of maturity and FCS playoff experience under his belt.
Central Arkansas not only returns Winningham from last year’s receiving corps but also Smith’s favorite receiver Tyler Hudson. At 6’2 and 6’3, the two receivers give Smith sizable targets, standing taller than each of Austin Peay’s cornerbacks.
As good as Smith and his receivers are, UCA’s offensive line is a concern. They lose two starters from 2019, including arguably their best offensive lineman, Parker Ray, to offseason knee surgery.
UCA might be in the FCS but that doesn’t mean they don’t have an NFL prospect on defense. That prospect is cornerback Robert Rochell, who could spell trouble for Austin Peay’s passing game.
Defensive lineman Nathan Grant and linebacker T.J. Campbell join Rochell on Southland’s preseason all-conference first team.
Austin Peay Governors
As for Austin Peay, the school from Tennessee returns quarterback Jeremiah Oatsvall, who started behind center before suffering a season-ending injury in this very matchup nearly a year ago. Peay had no problem replacing Oatsvall, as JaVaughn Craig stepped up to earn ALL-OVC quarterback honors.
JaVaughn is gone and Oatsvall is back in the place he started last year. Austin Peay’s passing success in 2019, despite losing their starting quarterback, is a good sign for Oatsvall.
Oatsvall has a pair of solid receivers to throw to in DAngelo Wilson and Baniko Harley. The two combined for 27 touchdowns in 2019, and Wilson caught an FCS-leading 1564 receiving yards.
Though coming off an injury, Austin Peay’s quarterback should feel plenty comfortable with an experienced offensive line that will have the advantage against most of their opponents, including UCA.
The biggest shoes the Governors have to fill is on the coaching staff. Head coach Mark Hudspeth resigned in July, leaving Maquase Lovings to take over as interim head coach.
College Football Betting Picks: Austin Peay vs. Central Arkansas
Austin Peay +4
Central Arkansas -4
Over/Under 44.5 (Opened 46)
Being played at the Crampton Bowl, a neutral site in Montgomery, Alabama, neither team will have home-field advantage. Not that there would have been true home-field advantage in the first place — the Crampton Bowl, like most college football venues this season, will operate at limited capacity. The Cramton Bowl will allow up to 25,000 fans inside on Saturday.
If the weather is clear, I lean toward betting on these two passing attacks scoring over 45.5 points. Both offenses are loaded with experience, and I suspect defenses will be harmed more by the unusual offseason. But the weather in Montgomery is worth keeping an eye on before placing your Over/Under bets. The current forecast shows a 40% chance of rain and scattered showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon.
One bet I will lock in right now is Austin Peay +4. The Governers might have an interim coach, but they return 16 starters from last year’s squad that made it to the FCS quarterfinals. They have the advantage in the trenches when on offense and defense. The defensive line should be able to put enough pressure on the opposing quarterback to cause a mistake or two, and I expect Austin Peay’s offense to do enough to give them a chance to win outright. If the weather does get nasty, while neither team is has a great running game, Austin Peay will be more prepared to make the necessary offensive adjustments. Take the points.
College Football Pick: Austin Peay +4 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Risking 1 unit to win .91 units.
More College Football Betting Resources
For more general betting tips, check out our college football picks betting guide.
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