Initially following the lead of the Big Ten and Pac-12, the SEC voted on July 29th to play a 10-game conference-only football season, removing Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, and Clemson from annual rivalries with SEC teams. The Big Ten and Pac-12 have since canceled their respective fall seasons but the SEC, ACC, and Big 12 vow to press on.
SEC football is currently set for Sept. 26, four weeks after teams were originally scheduled to kick off, and will conclude with an SEC Championship game that has been pushed back to Dec. 19.
The SEC recently announced the two additional cross-divisional opponents for each conference team in its modified schedule. The announcements themselves have major implications in terms of college football futures odds for both the SEC Championship and National Championship.
At first, the largely conference-only schedules seemed to have made less likely that two teams from the same conference will make the College Football Playoff, something that has happened only once in the six seasons with the four-team playoff format. However, if the Big Ten and Pac 12 stick to their plans to avoid playing football in the fall, we’re likely to see the SEC send two teams to the College Football Playoff at the conclusion of the 2020 regular season and SEC Championship. For now, online sports betting sites have removed CFP, National Championship and Heisman Trophy futures odds, leaving us with a handful of Week 1 and other lookahead lines, plus SEC Championship betting odds as we prep for college football to kick off.
The SEC tried to strike a balance but like most things in life, there, too, are winners and losers of the conference’s schedule changes. We’ll take a look at the winners and losers of the new SEC schedule, and see how they set things up for college football betting, particularly for the SEC Championship.
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2020 SEC Championship Betting Odds
- Alabama -110 (FOX Bet)
- Georgia +333 (FOX Bet)
- LSU +1000 (FOX Bet)
- Florida +1100 (PointsBet)
- Texas A&M +1500 (PointsBet)
- Auburn +1600 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Tennessee +8000 (PointsBet)
- Kentucky +10000 (FOX Bet)
- Mississippi State +12500 (FOX Bet)
- Missouri +12500 (FOX Bet)
- South Carolina +12500 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Mississippi +15000 (PointsBet)
- Vanderbilt +25000 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Arkansas +50000 (PointsBet)
2020 SEC Season Notes:
- Games: 10, Conference only
- SEC Championship Date: Saturday, Dec. 19
- Location: Atlanta, Georgia – Mercedes-Benz Stadium
2020 SEC Week 1 Football Odds (Sept. 26)
These Week 1 college football odds are courtesy of PointsBet and accurate as of Aug. 26, 2020. Odds are subject to change. As always, be sure to use RotoGrinders college football odds comparison tool to find the best lines for your weekly picks.
- Alabama at Missouri +21.5
- Florida at Ole Miss +11
- Georgia at Arkansas +24.5
- Kentucky at Auburn -8.5
- Mississippi State at LSU -18.5
- Tennessee at South Carolina +2.5
- Vanderbilt at Texas A&M -28.5
Two college football betting angles I’m considering: bet against new coaches and lean toward away teams, at least the first couple of weeks. In general, established coaches should have a more significant advantage while new coaches will have more challenges in 2020, given its peculiarities and off-season inconveniences, than any college football season yet. And with most college football stadiums operating at lower capacity, home-field advantage will be mitigated.
Here are the SEC coaching changes and stadium plans ahead of the 2020 season:
SEC Coaching Changes
- Ole Miss – Lane Kiffin
- Mississippi State – Mike Leach
- Arkansas – Sam Pittman
- Missouri – Eli Drinkwitz
SEC Stadium Capacity Plans
- Alabama (Bryant-Denny Stadium) – Approximately 20%
- Auburn (Jordan-Hare Stadium) – Approximately 20%
- Arkansas (Reyolds Razorback Stadium) – Between 21-23%
- Florida (Ben Hill Griffin Stadium) – TBD
- Georgia (Sanford Stadium) – Between 20-25%
- LSU (Tiger Stadium) – TBD
- Mississippi State (Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field) – 25%
- Ole Miss (Vaught Hemingway Stadium) – 25%
- Missouri (Memorial Stadium)- No more than 25%
- South Carolina (Williams-Brice Stadium) – 25%
- Tennessee (Neyland Stadium)- No more than 25%
- Texas A&M (Kyle Field) – Approximately 25%
- Vanderbilt (Vanderbilt Stadium) – TBD
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2020 SEC Championship Contenders
LSU Tigers +1000
Update: Star wide receiver Ja’marr Chase has opted out of the 2020 season due to coronavirus concerns.
Though two teams are ahead of the LSU Tigers when it comes to SEC Championship odds, we figured the defending conference champions are a good place to start.
If this is the year Texas is actually back, the defending national champion LSU Tigers don’t have to fear an upset in Baton Rouge on behalf of the often obnoxious head coach, Tom Herman.
And say what you want to say about premature “Texas is back” proclamations—I’m as exhausted by them as you are—but oddsmakers had the Longhorns traveling to Death Valley as merely 4-point underdogs before the game was canceled. Of course, that has little relevance until oddsmakers post odds for the College Football Playoff and national championship.
When it comes to their new SEC-only schedule, LSU’s was made even sweeter with new games at Vanderbilt and hosting Missouri. That’s good news for LSU, who has some adjustments to make after their historic 2019 season.
The Tigers might be the defending champions but they lost the Heisman-winning quarterback and the offensive coordinator who put the perfect season in motion. Offensive guru, Joe Brady, joined the Tigers last year to install pass-heavy, spread scheme to an offense that had previously been pedestrian in the Bayou. Joe Burrow executed it flawlessly. Now both are in the NFL, a long way from Death Valley.
In addition to the two most notable departures, Coach Ed Orgeron lost 13 starters, including two offensive guards, four more first-round draft picks in running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, wide receiver Justin Jefferson, linebacker K’Lavon Chaisson, and cornerback Patrick Queen.
Why LSU Can Win the 2020 SEC Championship
That’s not to suggest LSU is no longer dangerous. They do return J’Marr Chase and Derek Stingley Jr., possibly the best players at their positions in the nation, and Scott Linehan, who served as OC for the Dallas Cowboys 2015-18, will take over the offensive play-calling with Junior quarterback Myles Brennan behind center. Brennan not only has the luxury of watching arguably the greatest season-long quarterback performance in college football history, but Brennan was a consensus four-star prospect in high school and ranked as high as the No. 4 pocket passers in that nation, per ESPN. He’s 6’4, 210 lbs, and apparently has a big arm. He also has some experience, completing 41-of-70 passes for 600 yards and two touchdowns during his freshman and sophomore seasons before redshirting in 2019. Of course, replacing Burrow might add some unnecessary pressure while playing in the most competitive football conference in the country.
The LSU Tigers should have little trouble with their new cross-divisional opponents. No one is afraid of a road trip to Nashville, especially not the LSU, who routed Vandy by 66 points in a trip to the Music City last year. Missouri will have to adjust to a new coach and a new system.
Speaking of coaching changes in the SEC, LSU starts their season on Sept. 26 versus Mississippi State, who turn to Mike Leach to resurrect their football program with the Air-Raid. The Tigers are 17.5-point favorites at UNIBET. As I previously mentioned, I’m looking to bet against new coaches early this season more so than usual, and I’ll likely get behind LSU -17.5 in this spot.
LSU is +1000 to win the SEC at FOX Bet, which pays out significantly more than their consensus +650 price tag at other U.S. sportsbooks. If you were already thinking about backing the Tigers, there’s no reason to change your mind now.
Alabama Crimson Tide -110
LSU won’t get much of leg-up on Alabama in terms of there conference schedule, as Alabama draws similar matchups, including a common opponent in Missouri. Kentucky will fill the second spot on Alabama’s schedule. The Wildcats are more likely to give Alabama a run for their money than either Missouri or Vandy are to give LSU, but they dodged a matchup with Florida which would have posed a legitimate threat.
While Nick Saban gets two of the easier cross-divisional opponents, the conference-only schedule doesn’t benefit Alabama quite like it does LSU in terms of their national championship chances. Alabama didn’t have an opponent like Texas lined up; instead, their nonconference games were against Georgia State, Kent State, and UT Martin. Regardless, Alabama is in a position to return to College Football Playoff after missing out for the first time since the current format was introduced in 2014.
Alabama’s toughest test presumably comes at LSU on Saturday, Sept. 7, as Saban & Co. seek revenge for their loss to the Tigers in 2019. Right now, PointsBet has Bama as a 2-point favorite, which, in addition to these already uncertain times, is slim enough to keep me from betting on them to win the SEC as odds-on favorites (-110).
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Georgia Bulldogs +333
We can switch SEC divisions but, metaphorically speaking, the rich-get-richer trend continues as the SEC’s Eastern division hegemon joins Alabama and LSU as teams on the right side of schedule adjustments.
The Bulldogs draw Mississippi State and Arkansas, the latter of which, according to oddsmakers, are projected to be the worst team in the conference.
Mississippi State is a more interesting opponent with the aforementioned Mike Leach set to make his SEC debut. Leach got off to a slow start the last time he made a coaching move, but his Air-Raid offense is always capable of sneaking up the teams who least expect it.
More than likely, though, there will be some growing pains for Mississippi State, particularly with limited spring and summer practice reps. Georgia is set to take advantage of them in 2020, which should help pave the way to another SEC Championship appearance.
Florida Gators +9000 and Texas A&M +1400
The Florida Gators are the most formidable challengers to Georgia’s reign in the SEC East but they weren’t as fortunate as their rivals with whom they share a state line. The conference added Texas A&M to Florida’s schedule, which alrady featured LSU and Georgia. A road trip to College Station could spell trouble if the Gators aren’t careful.
The Gators and Aggies, both potential SEC dark horses, sat inside the top 10 according to National Championship futures odds just a month ago. Now only one will ride off victoriously when the teams meet on Oct. 10. As a result, the loser’s SEC Championship and College Football Playoff aspirations will take a major hit. In fact, the Aggies could very well start the season 1-2 after playing Alabama and Florida in consecutive weeks.
Once national championship odds are made available again, you’re better off looking elsewhere than at these two teams. Similarly, the schedule changes don’t leave much desire for SEC Championship picks on their behalf.
More SEC College Football Betting Resources
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