Primetime Parlay: Colts vs. Patriots Same Game Parlay Picks

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-06-18 12:14:34

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Last year, ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool helped create a variety of fun same-game parlay tickets throughout the NFL season. Through thousands of simulations, the tool examines the potential value various betting lines offer on sports betting apps. Along with the simulations, we will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props, and betting odds across sports betting sites to find the best price for our same-game parlay ticket. For this article, we build a same-game parlay for the Indianapolis Colts versus the New England Patriots in the International Series.

The NFL offers another Sunday morning football game with your coffee as the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots match up in the lastest installment of the International Series. The two teams will kick off in Germany as the Colts look to revive their hopes and the Patriots aim to avoid embarrassment. Let’s look over the game’s sports betting odds, statistics, and injury news before building a same-game parlay ticket on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Playing DFS tonight? Try out SimLabs, now in beta, to work on showdown lineups for this morning’s game.

Colts vs. Patriots Same Game Parlay

The Colts are 1.5-point favorites in Germany on Sunday morning. Per SAO, 52% of tickets were bet on the Patriots, and 66% of the money was placed on the underdogs. The over/under is not wildly high at 43.5 points with a high volume of tickets and money being bet on the under throughout the week. We have seen scoring struggles overseas this season with teams starting very slow with all the travel. Of all the teams that play across the pond this season, these two seem unlikely to buck that trend.

The Colts will be without young corner JuJu Brent while Josh Downs, Alec Pierce, and Zaire Franklin are questionable. If either of the wide receivers cannot suit up, look for Michael Pittman to see a slight uptick in volume. The Patriots will be missing DeVante Parker with a concussion. J.C. Jackson did not make the trip to Germany and seems to be in hot water with Bill Belichick because of a missed practice. Demario Douglas is questionable with an ankle but LT Trent Brown seems very likely to return to the offensive line. If the Patriots are without Douglas, the list of playmakers for Mac Jones will be very small. We will likely see some extra targets for Hunter Henry, Mike Gesicki, and Rhamondre Stevenson out of the backfield.

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Let’s take a look at the offensive numbers for both teams. Prepare yourself. This will not be very pleasant.

Indianapolis Offense
7th — 25.8 PPG
15th — 5.2 YPP
22nd — 6.7 Pass YPA
11th — 4.3 Rush YPA

New England Offense
31st — 15.0 PPG
24th — 4.7 YPP
28th — 6.0 Pass YPA
25th — 3.7 Rush YPA

The Colts continue to score points to stay in the game but lack in efficiency. The Patriots’ offense continues to be dreadful — struggling to score and turning the ball over (1.6 turnovers per game). Defensively, both teams are in the bottom six of the NFL in scoring defense. The Patriots, though, limit offenses to 5.0 yards per play. Perhaps, the New England defense is better than the points they’ve allowed thus far.

Both teams are in the bottom half of the league in sack rate and don’t seem to get enough pressure on the quarterback. These defenses are not playing at an elite level but might be helped by very unspectacular offenses. The public seems to think we won’t see many points in this game.

I think I might agree with the public. However, what do ParlayIQ and its thousands of simulations say about this game? Let’s take a look before finalizing our ticket.

Same Game Parlay Picks for Sunday Morning Football

Stevenson Over 20.5 Receiving Yards
Henry Over 30.5 Receiving Yards
Pittman Over 66.5 Receiving Yards

Rhamondre Stevenson Over 20.5 Receiving Yards

With plenty of uncertainty at the time of this writing about the health of the wide receiver corps, Rhamondre Stevenson seems likely to replicate his recent string of six-target performances. The young playmaker continues to be the true receiving threat in the backfield and does plenty of damage late in games with the Patriots often at a deficit.

ParlayIQ, unsurprisingly, likes a running back to exceed his receiving total. I have been warier of this prop lately, but for Sunday morning, I agree.

Hunter Henry Over 30.5 Receiving Yards

The Colts are in the bottom ten in the NFL in receptions to running backs and tight ends. We already covered the running back spot with Rhamondre. Now, we target the tight end position.

Hunter Henry has seen a moderate amount of targets of late and should only see a bump with wide receivers unable to play in Germany. If Demario Douglas cannot play, the Patriots have 5 to 7 targets to spread around the offense. Given the Colts’ penchant for allowing catches to the tight end position, Henry seems as good a bet as any to see some extra looks.

We include Henry as our second leg and look to the other sideline for our third prop pick.

Michael Pittman Over 66.5 Receiving Yards

With potentially Josh Downs and Alec Pierce missing the game in Germany, Michael Pittman should continue to be the big-play receiver for Gardner Minshew and the Colts. Pittman is always a big play waiting to happen. While the Patriots are a good defense in name only, New England has surrendered 1,488 yards to the WR position this season.

While I don’t expect plenty of scoring, I do think that the aforementioned players should get more opportunities than they are accustomed to throughout the game. We take these three and hopefully get ready for Sunday Night Football.