Commanders vs. Eagles Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Commanders vs. Eagles Odds
| Commanders Odds | +6 |
| Eagles Odds | -6 |
| Over/Under | 47 |
| Date | Sunday, January 26, 2025 |
| Time | 3:00 PM ET |
| TV | FOX |
On Sunday afternoon, the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles will play in the NFC Championship Game, with the winner advancing to the Super Bowl. Kickoff is set for 3:00 p.m. ET on FOX.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Eagles as 6-point favorites on the spread. The total is set at 47 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks.
According to Evan Abrams of The Action Network, teams with a rest advantage in their Conference Championship game are 26-16 SU since the 2003-2004 season. Washington defeated Detroit last Saturday, giving them an extra day of rest heading into today’s matchup.
Washington Commanders Preview
Daniels, Commanders offense 1 win away from improbable Super Bowl appearance
After finishing last season 4-13, the Commanders were priced at 150-1 longshots to win the Super Bowl this year, even after selecting Jayden Daniels with the No. 2 overall pick in this past summer’s draft. Suffice it to say, Daniels and company have exceeded all expectations, winning 12 games in the regular season and winning back-to-back playoff games as underdogs.
Per Evan Abrams, Daniels will be the 6th rookie quarterback to start a Conference Championship game in the modern era. None of the previous 5 quarterbacks managed to win that contest.
Cosmi ruled OUT
Daniels’ chances of bucking the aforementioned rookie quarterback trend will be made even more difficult on Sunday, due to the absence of RG Sam Cosmi, who is one of Washington’s best starting offensive linemen. Cosmi suffered a torn ACL in the 2nd quarter last week against the Lions, limiting him to only 29 snaps.
Cosmi has played in every game this season for Washington, ranking 14th out of 72 players at his position as a pass blocker and safely above the league average in run blocking, per PFF. Notably, he allowed only a 3.2% pressure rate on 700 pass-blocking snaps.
Cosmi’s likely backup, Trent Scott, is a significant downgrade in talent. Scott has played primarily at tackle in a reserve role this season, allowing a 5.7% pressure rate on 123 pass-blocking snaps. This will be an area to watch against a strong Philadelphia pass rush that ranked in the top half of the NFL in sacks per pass attempt during the regular season.
Philadelphia Eagles Preview
Barkley looking to continue historic season
During the regular season, Saquon Barkley led the NFL with 2,005 rushing yards, becoming only the 9th player in the Super Bowl era to surpass 2,000 yards on the ground in a single season. His dominance has continued into the postseason, rushing for 324 yards in Philadelphia’s first 2 playoff contests.
On Sunday, Barkley’s rushing yards prop is set at over/under 125.5 yards. If he goes over that number, he would become only the 3rd running back since 1966 to run for 450 yards or more in his team’s first 3 postseason games.
Barkley has another favorable matchup on tap for the NFC Conference Championship game, facing a Washington run defense that has struggled to defend opposing ground attacks all year. During the regular season, the Commanders allowed the most yards per carry on outside runs and the most yards before contact on runs outside the tackles. Among running backs with 50+ attempts on outside runs this year, Barkley ranked 6th in yards per carry.
What to expect from Eagles’ defense
Philadelphia’s defense has performed at a high level to begin the playoffs, but it’s worth noting that they have had some help. In the Wild Card round against the Packers, Jordan Love was without WR Christian Watson and lost WR Jayden Reed to injury during the contest. Green Bay also suffered multiple injuries on the offensive line during that game.
Last week, the Eagles hosted the Rams, a team that plays in a dome and is used to the warm and sunny weather in California. Los Angeles still managed 402 yards of total offense in frigid, snowy conditions, but a pair of costly turnovers kept them from coming away with a victory.
Today, Philadelphia will have their toughest test yet. Washington ranks 2nd among all playoff teams so far this postseason in offensive EPA/play and 5th in success rate. They scored only 23 points against Tampa Bay, but they garnered 350 yards of total offense on the road in their Wild Card matchup. Last week, they had 481 yards of total offense and scored 45 points on the road against the Lions.
The Eagles’ defense is potentially vulnerable if Daniels can get the ball out quickly and minimize the impact of Cosmi’s absence.
Commanders vs. Eagles Prediction
Jayden Daniels and the Commanders have been a fun underdog story this season, but there is little doubt that the Eagles are a far more talented team. The absence of RG Sam Cosmi on the Washington offensive line could prove problematic for a rookie signal caller in one of the most hostile environments in professional sports, which could reduce the potency of the team’s high-powered offense.
On the other side, Philadelphia’s offense has scored 50 points across the last 2 weeks despite Jalen Hurts playing some of his worst football of the season. The presence of Saquon Barkley gives the Eagles’ offense the potential to get to the goal line on every play from scrimmage, and this is the best weather that this offense has had to date in these playoffs.
The Eagles should find a way to come away with a win. Neither of these defenses is likely to completely shut down their opponent, making this an interesting same game parlay opportunity, taking the Eagles on the moneyline and teasing the total down through a few key numbers.
PICK: Eagles Moneyline + Over 40.5 (-125, DraftKings)
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