Commanders vs. Eagles Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Commanders vs. Eagles Odds
| Commanders Odds | +3.5 |
| Eagles Odds | -3.5 |
| Over/Under | 48.5 |
| Date | Thursday, November 14 |
| Time | 8:15 PM ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
This week’s edition of Thursday Night Football has significant playoff implications, with the 7-2 Philadelphia Eagles hosting the 7-3 Washington Commanders for an NFC East clash. The winner of tonight’s matchup will own sole possession of 1st place in the division, with a leg up in tiebreakers heading into the back half of the regular season schedule.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Eagles as 3.5-point home favorites on the spread. The total is set at 48.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks.
According to Evan Abrams of The Action Network, Thursday home teams are 42-55 ATS (43.3%) since 2019. Games played on a Thursday are 19-10 to the over during the last two seasons.
Washington Commanders Preview
Robinson expected to play on Thursday
According to Zach Selby, senior writer for the Commanders, RB Brian Robinson Jr. will be active for Thursday’s intra-division battle against the Eagles. Robinson Jr. has missed Washington’s last 2 games with a hamstring injury, which has hurt the team’s ground game considerably. Last week, in particular, the Commanders were held to 60 rushing yards on 22 attempts – 2.7 yards per carry. Robinson Jr. is averaging 3.2 yards after contact per rush this season, compared to RB Austin Ekeler averaging 1.8 yards after contact per rush.
It’s also worth noting here that LT Brandon Coleman, LT Cornelius Lucas, and RT Andrew Wylie are each listed as questionable on the final injury report of the week. Lucas and Wylie both missed this past Sunday’s game against the Steelers, so their status is worth watching throughout the day given that they were both limited at practice this week.
Washington defense turning up the heat
From Week 1 to Week 4, Washington’s defense had the 6th-lowest blitz rate in the entire NFL. During that stretch, they ranked 32nd in EPA/play and 31st in success rate. Since Week 5, however, the Commanders have the 7th-highest blitz rate in the league, per The Athletic. The result has been a jump into the top 11 in both EPA/play and success rate across their last 6 games and an improvement to allowing 19.2 points per game, compared to 25.5 points per game prior to that point.
Philadelphia Eagles Preview
Philadelphia offense running their way to success
Philadelphia went into their bye week with a disappointing 2-2 record, running the ball 45.3% of the time, which ranked 15th in the NFL. Since their bye, the Eagles lead the league with a 63.0% rush rate, which has helped propel them to 5 consecutive victories. The advanced numbers look much better, too, with Philadelphia’s offense improving from 14th in EPA/play and 15th in success rate prior to their bye, to 5th in EPA/play and 10th in success rate across the last 5 weeks.
However, it hasn’t just been the run game that has been top-notch for this group. Jalen Hurts has played like an MVP candidate since Week 6, with an 8:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and the 2nd-most yards per attempt (10.2) among qualified quarterbacks. Hurts ranked 23rd in EPA/play and 19th in success rate prior to the bye but ranks 2nd in EPA/play and 2nd in success rate since the break.
Even more exciting for Philadelphia fans, star LT Jordan Mailata is expected to return to the field after missing the last 4 games due to a hamstring injury. Mailata ranks 2nd out of 75 tackles in pass block grade and 4th in run block grade, per PFF, this season. His return has the potential to make this offense even more potent.
Eagles defense trending in the right direction
Philadelphia’s defense has been outstanding across the last month as well, leading the league in EPA/play and success rate since Week 6. Perhaps most impressive, the Eagles defense ranks in the top 9 in EPA/play and success rate against both the run and the pass during that stretch – having shown no discernable weakness of late.
One of the biggest reasons for this unit’s success has been the emergence of rookie CB Quinyon Mitchell. Since Week 6, Mitchell hasn’t allowed more than 25 receiving yards in any individual game. His improved coverage has also led to quarterbacks targeting him 6.1% less frequently since the team’s bye, per The Athletic – the ultimate sign of respect.
One area to watch tonight will be how much we see CB Darius Slay on the field. He missed the team’s Week 9 game against Jacksonville and only played 24 snaps in Week 10 against Dallas. Slay ranks 20th out of 108 cornerbacks in coverage grade this fall, per PFF, and is one of the most important pieces of this secondary unit.
Commanders vs. Eagles Prediction
Simply put, both of these offenses are electric. The Commanders rank 2nd in offensive DVOA this season. The Eagles are averaging 30.2 points per game when A.J. Brown plays, and they have Jalen Hurts playing at an MVP-level right now.
Both of these teams have improved defensively as the season has gone on, but we have frequently seen defenses struggle on short weeks in recent years. That trend could be compounded tonight by the fact that both teams had very little time to prepare for two of the most mobile quarterbacks in the NFL.
Washington and Philadelphia should both be able to move the ball well in this game, which should lead to this contest being relatively competitive and probably a high-scoring affair. If everything goes according to plan, this could be a great game script for a rare same game parlay.
PICK: Commanders +8, Over 40 (-120, DraftKings)
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