Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers Odds, Prediction & Pick
Cowboys vs. 49ers Odds
| Cowboys Odds | +3.5 |
| 49ers Odds | -3.5 |
| Over/Under | 44.5 |
| Date | Sun, Oct. 8 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. |
| TV | NBC |
This week’s edition of Sunday Night Football will feature the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers in what could shape up to be an NFC Championship preview. Entering play, Dallas is 3-1 with the best net point differential in the entire NFL. San Francisco is one of two remaining unbeaten teams through four games.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the 49ers as 3.5-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 44.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Dallas Cowboys
Can Dallas convert red zone opportunities into touchdowns?
During the first month of the regular season, no team in the NFL has come even close to Dallas in terms of red zone opportunities. According to Warren Sharp, the Cowboys have run 85 plays in the red zone so far this season, which is 31 more plays than the next closest team. The problem for Dak Prescott and company is that they rank 30th in touchdown percentage, with only eight touchdowns from those 85 plays.
Simply, there is no reason for Dallas to be this poor inside of the 20-yard line. Over a larger sample size, this group should see their touchdown percentage experience positive regression to the mean, and it could start as soon as tonight on Sunday Night Football. This offense has plenty of playmakers, making it unlikely that we see their struggles continue for much longer.
Cowboys’ defense bringing the pressure early in 2023
Through four games this season, the Cowboys have generated pressure on opposing quarterbacks at the highest rate of any team in the NFL. Other than an extremely poor outing against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 3, Dallas has generated at least a 41.8% pressure rate against each of their opponents in 2023. Last weekend, only the Detroit Lions and Seattle Seahawks got more pressure on opposing quarterbacks than Dallas. Getting pressure is the strength of this unit, and it should play to their advantage in this spot against Purdy, who has not been productive in his career when under duress.
San Francisco 49ers
Not Purdy under pressure
According to Sharp Football Analytics, Brock Purdy has posted +0.77 EPA/attempt, a 71% success rate, 10.8 yards per attempt, and an 84% completion rate when kept clean in 2023. These numbers regress sharply to -0.32 EPA/attempt, a 36% success rate, 5.6 yards per attempt, and a 49% completion rate when under pressure.
As a result of Purdy’s struggles under pressure, it is likely that the 49ers do everything they can to establish the running game early. Christian McCaffrey has scored at least one touchdown and is averaging over 100 rushing yards per game so far this fall. Expect him to be heavily involved in the offensive game plan on Sunday Night Football, as the coaching staff looks to reduce the responsibility on Purdy’s shoulders.
San Francisco defense vulnerable against Dallas passing attack
Though San Francisco has mostly cruised to begin 2023, it is worth noting that they have played four teams that are at or below the .500 mark as of this writing. Dallas presents a unique challenge to this defense, with their ability to attack all areas of the field. Kenny Pickett, Daniel Jones, and Joshua Dobbs are all limited signal callers in their own respect in a way that Prescott simply is not.
According to PFF, Prescott has completed 33-of-39 pass attempts outside the numbers within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage so far this fall. He has experienced success throwing outside numbers downfield the last two seasons as well, which is an area of the field that San Francisco struggles to defend.
Cowboys vs. 49ers – Picks & Predictions
San Francisco rolls into this Week 5 affair looking like an unbeatable juggernaut with an unblemished 4-0 record. However, there are a number of ways in which they simply do not match up well against Dallas in this contest. First and foremost, Brock Purdy struggles mightily under pressure relative to his numbers when kept clean. The 49ers’ defense is also much more vulnerable outside the numbers compared to inside the numbers, which is a concern against a Cowboys offense that has the 5th-highest rate of passes thrown outside the numbers, according to Sharp Football Analytics. Dallas has run more offensive plays in the red zone than any other team in the league so far in 2023, and are finally getting healthy on the offensive line. This line should be closer to a pick’em – take the road underdogs here.
PICK: Cowboys +3.5 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)