Dallas Cowboys vs. Seattle Seahawks Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Cowboys vs. Seahawks Odds
| Seahawks Odds | +9 |
| Cowboys Odds | -9 |
| Over/Under | 47.5 |
| Date | Thursday, Nov. 30 |
| Time | 8:15 PM ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
This week’s edition of Thursday Night Football will feature Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks against Dak Prescott and the surging Dallas Cowboys. Entering play, the Seahawks are 6-5 and firmly in contention for an NFC Wild Card position. The Cowboys are 8-3 with the best point differential in the NFL.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Cowboys as 9-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 47.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Seattle Seahawks
Geno Smith, Seahawks offense to prioritize getting the ball out quickly against Cowboys
In Week 13, the Seahawks’ plan is to get the ball out quickly against a strong Cowboys pass rush. Last week, Geno Smith was sacked 6 times and threw for only 180 passing yards in a 31-13 loss against the 49ers, with a focus on attacking San Francisco deep downfield in the passing game being a major reason for the San Francisco sack parade.
On Thursday against Dallas, Seattle will be without starting right guard Phil Haynes and (likely) starting running back Kenneth Walker. Haynes is likely to be replaced at right guard by Anthony Bradford, who is an upgrade as a run blocker but a downgrade as a pass blocker. Playing without a fully healthy offensive line against a great defense, it goes without saying that Smith will not be able to hold the ball for an extended period of time in the pocket.
According to Gregg Bell of The News Tribune, Seattle play caller and offensive coordinator Shane Waldron emphasized the quick passing game in talks with the media earlier this week. Smith admitted that he has been holding the ball too long in recent weeks, commenting “I’ve been probably holding the ball too long to see guys open instead of doing what I normally do, which is to throw them open. It’s trusting the guys, again, trusting myself, believing in just getting the ball out.”
Though the game plan for Seattle appears to be clear, it is, of course, much easier to talk the talk than to walk the walk. According to props.cash, Dallas has held 10 of 11 opposing quarterbacks under their market number for pass completions this season. Only Justin Herbert and Sam Howell have completed more than 17 passes against the Cowboys.
Seattle defense missing Uchenna Nwosu
The Seattle defense has suffered tremendously since losing edge defender Uchenna Nwosu to a pectoral injury in Week 6. Prior to his injury, Seattle’s defense ranked a respectable 13th in EPA/play and 17th in success rate. From Week 8 to Week 12, with Nwosu off of the field, the Seahawks defense ranked 29th in EPA/play and 27th in success rate.
This unit has been particularly poor against the run since Nwosu last played, ranking 32nd in rush EPA/play and 30th in rush success rate. In the last two weeks alone, Seattle has allowed 114 rushing yards to Christian McCaffrey and 73 rushing yards to Royce Freeman. The Seahawks are unlikely to have many answers for the Dallas ground attack on Thursday Night Football.
Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott making case for MVP
Since losing to the 49ers in embarrassing fashion in Week 5, Dak Prescott has been unequivocally the best quarterback in the NFL. From Week 6 to Week 12, the Cowboys ranked 1st in offensive EPA/play and 2nd in success rate. Dallas was 1st in dropback EPA/play and 1st in dropback success rate in that span, meaning that no other team in the league has experienced more success through the air in the last two months than the Cowboys.
Even more impressive, Prescott has posted a 16-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio across his last 6 games. He has not been sacked since Week 9, and he has a 1.7% turnover-worthy Play Rate from a clean pocket since Week 6. He has been the league’s best quarterback from a clean pocket in that span, measured by passer rating, and he ranks 2nd in passer rating when under pressure.
Dallas has scored at least 30 points in each of their 5 home games this season, including 3 consecutive games with at least 43 points playing at Jerry World since their Week 7 bye. This is the best offense in the NFL right now, and they show very few signs of slowing down.
Dallas defense playing at an elite level
Dallas enters play in Week 13 riding a streak of 3 consecutive games with at least a 43.6% defensive pressure rate. No other team has managed to put together 3 games of at least a 35% defensive pressure rate during that stretch, showcasing how truly dominant this Dallas defense has been of late.
Since their Week 7 bye, Dallas leads the NFL in defensive EPA/play and ranks 2nd in defensive success rate. They have been elite against opposing passing attacks, with their main vulnerability being a weak run defense in short-yardage situations. Seattle is capable of running the ball effectively against the Cowboys, but it is unlikely that Geno Smith and company find much success through the air.
Seahawks vs. Cowboys – Picks & Predictions
The Dallas Cowboys are unquestionably the more talented team in this matchup on both sides of the ball, but it is debatable as to whether they are deserving of being such large favorites in this spot, even at home. The Cowboys have been on cruise control lately, beating the hapless Commanders, Panthers, and Giants by a combined 90 points in their last 3 games. Though some may look at that as a sign of strength, it can also be viewed as a potential vulnerability. Dallas has not played a quality opponent since Week 9, when they lost to Philadelphia, 28-23. Facing a Seattle team that has lost 2 consecutive games and is in desperation mode as they try to stay in the playoff hunt, Dallas could be in for a more competitive game than many people are expecting. Buy a point on the spread to get push potential here at the key number of 10.
PICK: Seahawks +10 (-120, Fanatics Sportsbook)