Dallas Cowboys vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Cowboys vs. Steelers Odds
| Cowboys Odds | +2.5 |
| Steelers Odds | -2.5 |
| Over/Under | 43.5 |
| Date | Sunday, October 6th |
| Time | 8:20 PM ET |
| TV | NBC |
The Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers will meet on Sunday Night Football to conclude today’s 12-game NFL slate. Dak Prescott and the Cowboys will be hoping to get back over the .500 mark. Justin Fields and the Steelers will be trying to retain sole possession of their AFC North division lead.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Steelers as 3-point favorites on the spread. The total is set at 43.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
According to our RotoGrinders’ expert meteorologist, Kevin Roth, “a line of storms” could make their way through Pittsburgh around kickoff this evening, which could impact this contest early. However, he doesn’t expect the storms to stick around for long, saying that the playing conditions should be “manageable” for most of the game.
Dallas Cowboys Preview
Prescott, Cowboys offense showing signs of life
After a dreadful start to the season, Dak Prescott and company showed some signs of life in their Week 5 win over the Giants. Despite scoring only 20 points, Dallas’ offense ended the week ranked 11th in EPA/play and 9th in success rate. Prescott had his best 2024 game start to finish, completing 22 of 27 pass attempts for a pair of touchdowns.
Jake Ferguson returned to the field to haul in 7 catches for 49 yards and is likely to continue seeing a heavy workload now that WR Brandin Cooks has been placed on injured reserve. WR Jalen Tolbert is also a candidate for more targets going forward, as this offense tries to figure out how to build upon last week’s positive momentum.
Parsons OUT, Carson & Diggs QUESTIONABLE
The Dallas defense is in a dire position heading into Sunday Night Football in Week 5, with a number of key contributors potentially on the sidelines. The Cowboys have already been playing without EDGE Sam Williams and CB DaRon Bland, but now they will be without EDGE DeMarcus Lawrence and EDGE Micah Parsons this evening. They have also listed LB Marist Liufau, CB Caelen Carson, and CB Trevon Diggs as questionable – and Diggs might be closer to doubtful after not practicing at all on Friday.
The Cowboys have struggled to get consistent stops so far in 2024, particularly on the ground, ranking 26th in success rate allowed to opposing rushing attacks. This could be a tough matchup for Dallas, facing a Pittsburgh offense that has run the 4th-highest rate of running plays in the NFL this season.
Pittsburgh Steelers Preview
What to expect from Justin Fields
Pittsburgh enters play in Week 5 in sole possession of 1st place in the AFC North division, but Justin Fields hasn’t been a significant driver of this team’s win-loss record. Fields has put together back-to-back positive EPA/play games ahead of kickoff this evening, but he still ranks only 14th in EPA/play and 18th in success rate among qualified signal callers this season. Only 4 other starting quarterbacks have a lower aDOT than Fields this year – a sign of how little the Steelers have opened up the playbook with Fields under center this fall.
Tonight, Fields will get star LG Isaac Seumalo back on the field for the first time in 2024, but he will lose standout RG James Daniels, who has been excellent this year. Through 3 weeks this season, Daniels led all qualified guards in run block grade, per PFF.
Highsmith to miss 2nd consecutive game
Star EDGE Alex Highsmith left Pittsburgh’s Week 3 contest early due to injury and will now miss his 2nd consecutive game. At the time of his injury, Highsmith ranked 3rd on the Steelers in quarterback pressures. He had 7 sacks in 2023 and 14.5 sacks in 2022, making him a notable loss for this unit.
From Week 1 to Week 3, Pittsburgh’s defense ranked 1st in EPA/play and 6th in success rate. In Week 4, with Highsmith unavailable, the Steelers ranked 27th in EPA/play and 15th in success rate. They will look to get back on track this evening at home.
Cowboys vs. Steelers Prediction
The Steelers are not a sexy football team, but they are the 3rd-most profitable team ATS since the departure of Ben Roethlisberger, per Evan Abrams. Mike Tomlin is an incredible 43-28-3 ATS without Roethlisberger in his career.
Dallas is in a tough spot in Week 5, with numerous stars already ruled out and a pair of starting cornerbacks listed as questionable. Pittsburgh knows how to win ugly games – tonight is unlikely to be any different.
PICK: Steelers -3 (-102, DraftKings)
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