Daily Batter Breakdown: Cinco De Mayo

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2014-05-05 21:01:35

Welcome to the Daily Batter Breakdown. Each day, with at least 8 games on the night slate, I’ll breakdown some of the best top tier hitters to target based on matchup. The biggest split taken into account will be left/right, but each player card will also show park factors, player salaries and then a description of why I’ll be targeting him. Be sure to check out the FAQ for more information on specific stats.

My fault on getting this up so late today and thanks for being patient with me. I will be trying to get these breakdowns up the day before from now on which may make it easier on both of us to do research and for me to not have to worry about work and getting this done. Anyways, there are a couple of teams who are huge favorites and big over/unders today so these plays will concentrate on those games that are good to target.

		Victor Martinez
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.274	0.711	3.23%	0.296
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.533	1.312	0.00%	0.53
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Cosart – RIGHT			0.199	0.592	12.55%	0.273
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.139	1.044	$3,900	$9,174	$9,550	$4,200	$86,100	$7,800	$11,600

Victor Martinez

A ton of people I imagine are going to be on Rosario and Arencibia/Chirinos tonight as a catcher in Coors Field, however I’m really liking Martinez tonight as a great matchup play that not many may own. The Tigers are one of the heaviest favorites I have seen in baseball in a while tonight against the hapless Astros and are hitting the snot out of the ball. Martinez’s wOBA and OBP is ridiculous right now and he’s hitting in the middle of a lineup which is mashing everyone. He hardly ever strikes out and sees a ton of good pitches with the strength around him in the lineup. He’s definitely one of the safest C plays on the board today.

		Prince Fielder
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.194	0.649	1.61%	0.261
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.182	0.432	0.00%	0.207
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Lyles – RIGHT			0.261	0.711	9.91%	0.323
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.273	1.042	$3,200	$7,753	$8,700	$4,400	$62,800	$6,800	$8,000

Prince Fielder

I’m trying to talk myself out of using Fielder tonight but I really can’t. His price is so low due to his early season struggles but it appears he has gotten the ship right with a 5 game hitting streak and 2 doubles in the last game. I think he will enjoy hitting at Coors and definitely has a solid shot to hit one out tonight against Lyles. Nothing really stands out to me in the matchup except for Lyles’ struggles last year against lefties, it being in Coors Field, and Fielder’s cheap price but those are all good reasons to plug him in.

		D.J. LeMahieu
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.286	0.619	0.00%	0.264
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.211	0.549	0.00%	0.255
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Perez – LEFT			0.258	0.699	7.27%	0.310
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.273	1.146	$2,300	$4,889	$7,550	$3,600	$45,600	$4,600	$7,900

D.J. LeMahieu

If you want to stack Rockies tonight you’re going to want the human sneeze in your lineups. LeMaheiu is the cheapest Colorado starter and has power (only at home). He can rack up points when the Rockies are hitting around and there’s a good shot of that tonight. Perez got roughed up last time out against Oakland and has only allowed right handers to do damage against him this year. With the high over/under I wouldn’t leave LeMahieu off if you’re stacking Rockies.

		Troy Tulowitzki
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.419	1.229	6.45%	0.522
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.520	1.48	8.00%	0.624
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Perez – LEFT			0.258	0.699	7.27%	0.310
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.273	1.146	$5,300	$9,284	$13,650	$6,100	$120,800	$10,600	$13,000

Troy Tulowitzki

Tulo’s bat is ecoming somewhat of a legend this year as he is now hitting .400 on the year. How long can he stay healthy? Well that’s another story that we don’t have to deal with in DFS. If he’s in the lineup, pay up for him and plug him in. his .419 avg and 1.229 OPS against left handers is otherworldly and if you needed any more coaxing, he has a 1.740 OPS in the last 7 days and is hitting .619 in that span. This is a ridiculous run and at Coors Field he makes a fade if you dare play.

		Nolan Arenado
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.345	0.846	3.45%	0.362
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.393	0.971	3.57%	0.417
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Perez – LEFT			0.258	0.699	7.27%	0.310
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.273	1.146	$3,600	$7,885	$8,550	$4,500	$77,800	$6,400	$10,300

Nolan Arenado

I am recommending the Colorado righties over the Texas righties as I think they have a better shot of succeeding in this game and I think that most of the people are going to be on Texas and not Colorado today. Arenado has 2 HR power as we have seen before and should be hitting at the top of the lineup against Perez tonight. I am not sure what we will get out of Perez but I do know that right handers give the best chance of success against him, and Arenado is hot right now with a .938 OPS in the last 7 and a solid history against left handed pitchers. I like Arenado over Beltre today even with the cheapness of Beltre’s salary.

		Michael Brantley
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.246	0.723	3.28%	0.323
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.263	0.724	5.26%	0.304
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Gibson – RIGHT			0.339	0.832	9.35%	0.375
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.933	0.992	$3,600	$7,243	$7,800	$4,000	$81,300	$6,100	$11,900

Michael Brantley

Brantley has some strange splits this year as he’s crushing left handed pitching and struggling a bit against right handed pitching. I think it’s closer to the opposite as he has 10x the at-bats in the last few years and the data has shown us the opposite. Brantley is hot with hits in his last 4 games along with a homer and is showing some uptick in power. I think a lot of people will forget about him with all of the solid matchups around, but a home date against Gibson who has been annihilated in the last 2 starts is definitely making him a great bargain play. Gibson has been terrible away from home and has been terrible against left handed hitters and Brantley is hitting 3rd.

		Shin-Soo Choo
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.250	0.846	3.85%	0.375
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.462	1.303	7.69%	0.553
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Lyles – RIGHT			0.261	0.711	9.91%	0.323
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.273	1.042	$4,500	$9,453	$11,600	$5,000	$90,100	$8,000	$8,500

Shin-Soo Choo

What better time for Choo to hit a leadoff homer tonight? Choo’s numbers are a bit of an anomaly this year but I still believe he’s a better hitter against right handed pitching who he faces today. He has a 1.355 OPS in the last week and with the Ranger’s resurgence I think he makes a solid play tonight. I am expecting a lot of people to use Rangers against Lyles tonight and have featured a couple of Rangers, however I am going to take the other way and avoid Rangers. It’s their first game in the altitude, and Lyles has been effective this year with a 1.06 WHIP and has been very good at Coors field. Obviously his numbers so far at Coors are unsustainable but I don’t think Texas is as much of a slam dunk as others.

		Josh Harrison
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.176	0.634	5.88%	0.277
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.333	0.929	0.00%	0.41
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Petit – RIGHT			0.272	0.695	2.40%	0.304
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.907	0.947	$2,400	$5,224	$6,450	$2,200	$31,000	$4,300	$5,400

Josh Harrison

Look who is leading off again after his 2 solid games after being called up. Harrison is extremely cheap and brings speed and a little power to the lineup along with some extra at bats. He’s not a great play but he’s cheap and brings some upside and will be low owned I imagine today with a lot of people targeting Petit to save some money. His numbers aren’t eye-popping but if he triples he definitely makes it worth your while to roster him on almost every site.

		Albert Pujols
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.241	0.854	8.43%	0.362
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.227	0.626	0.00%	0.265
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Phelps – RIGHT			0.277	0.743	9.50%	0.336
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.968	1.066	$4,100	$9,294	$10,850	$5,200	$100,900	$7,700	$12,800

Albert Pujols

I think a lot of people are going to forget about the Angels and their 4.5 over under tonight against Phelps and the Yankees. If you don’t like Fielder and want to option 1st base to another guy and not pay up for Miguel, Pujols makes a solid play in his return to the top tier of hitters campaign. Pujols isn’t crushing right handers for average this year but he is hitting homers consistently off of them, one in every 10 at bats and has a solid chance to do some damage tonight. I think the Angels make a sly contrarian stack tonight.

		Jose Reyes
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.188	0.579	3.13%	0.258
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.185	0.501	0.00%	0.229
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Kendrick – RIGHT			0.256	0.706	7.11%	0.314
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.107	1.037	$3,300	$7,500	$9,700	$4,300	$73,400	$6,900	$8,800

Jose Reyes

I think there is way too much talk about BVP and how much it means and doesn’t mean right now. I won’t bore you with my position on it, but one BVP I am taking into consideration is Reyes and his 1.171 OPS and .391 average in 33 at bats against Kendrick. Reyes has also struck out only 2 times in those 33 at bats which makes me believe that he is pretty confident in making contact when hitting against Kendrick. Kendrick isn’t a great pitcher and his WHIP is fairly hight this year. He’s allowed a .984 OPS against lefties this year and Reyes is really cheap for his talent. If you don’t want to pay up for Tulo I like Reyes.