Daily Batter Breakdown: Monday, June 1st
Welcome to the Daily Batter Breakdown. Whenever there are at least eight games on the night slate, I’ll break down some of the best top tier hitters to target based on matchup.
The biggest split taken into account will be left/right, but each player card will also show park factors, player salaries on FanDuel and DraftKings among other sites, and then a description of why I’ll be targeting him.
The Dodgers are -220 favorites at this point in Coors, making them all great plays against Kendrick. As such I will not be listing any of them here.
 | Jason Castro | ||||||
| Daily Breakdown | Avg | OPS | HR% | wOBA | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Left/Right Splits | 0.219 | 0.681 | 3.86% | 0.303 | |||
| Last 7 Days Splits | 0.125 | 0.364 | 0.00% | 0.167 | |||
| Opp SP vs. LR | Avg | OPS | HR% | wOBA | |||
| Jimenez – RIGHT | 0.238 | 0.746 | 3.19% | 0.338 | |||
| PARK-1 | PARK-LR | FD | DD | DK | FF | SS | FTD |
| 1.012 | 0.000 | $2,400 | $5,950 | $3,400 | $46,000 | ||
Jason Castro
Castro is so cheap here against Jimenez that it should allow you to stack a little bit of your roster with some other higher priced guys. Castro is not having a great season and he did not have one last year, but his season before that was solid, so are we looking at the new Castro or will he eventually rebound? His .258 BABIP against righties shows room for progression this year, and while he still has good power with a .185 ISO, really we would like him to be more like the 2013 Castro who had a .371 wOBA against right-handers. We are still sitting at .313 wOBA against righties, but that could change today at home against Jimenez.
 | Lucas Duda | ||||||
| Daily Breakdown | Avg | OPS | HR% | wOBA | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Left/Right Splits | 0.269 | 0.887 | 5.82% | 0.383 | |||
| Last 7 Days Splits | 0.389 | 1.667 | 22.22% | 0.663 | |||
| Opp SP vs. LR | Avg | OPS | HR% | wOBA | |||
| Cashner – RIGHT | 0.249 | 0.736 | 3.47% | 0.320 | |||
| PARK-1 | PARK-LR | FD | DD | DK | FF | SS | FTD |
| 0.826 | 0.000 | $4,100 | $11,000 | $4,300 | $84,600 | ||
Lucas Duda
The Duda express is finally arriving at the station, as he has began crushing homers like he was projected to in the offseason. His price is reasonable, and the .225 ISO with a .379 wOBA is very solid. His price is not going to break the bank, although I definitely would like him a little cheaper on FanDuel. The matchup is not terrible against Cashner, who has given up a .371 wOBA to lefties this year and is having an extremely hard time getting any lefties out.
 | David Ortiz | ||||||
| Daily Breakdown | Avg | OPS | HR% | wOBA | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Left/Right Splits | 0.262 | 0.871 | 6.73% | 0.369 | |||
| Last 7 Days Splits | 0.150 | 0.4 | 0.00% | 0.171 | |||
| Opp SP vs. LR | Avg | OPS | HR% | wOBA | |||
| Pelfrey – RIGHT | 0.193 | 0.604 | 2.00% | 0.281 | |||
| PARK-1 | PARK-LR | FD | DD | DK | FF | SS | FTD |
| 1.072 | 0.000 | $2,600 | $7,650 | $4,600 | $59,800 | ||
David Ortiz
Ortiz is back in the lineup and should be playing most days now. The Red Sox are one of the other teams that are worth stacking today, as there are a lot of 6.5 and 7 over/unders outside of the Coors game. The Red Sox are not one of those, being one of the only other 8.5s, so Vegas likes this game for runs. Ortiz is dirt cheap on FanDuel for a guy with a great history of mashing right-handed pitching and for a power hitter facing Mike Pelfrey. Ortiz is not having a great season, but we have years worth of data noting that this is a solid price for him, and he will eventually start producing.
 | Dee Gordon | ||||||
| Daily Breakdown | Avg | OPS | HR% | wOBA | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Left/Right Splits | 0.314 | 0.755 | 0.34% | 0.332 | |||
| Last 7 Days Splits | 0.346 | 0.717 | 0.00% | 0.306 | |||
| Opp SP vs. LR | Avg | OPS | HR% | wOBA | |||
| Hammel – RIGHT | 0.238 | 0.674 | 3.40% | 0.298 | |||
| PARK-1 | PARK-LR | FD | DD | DK | FF | SS | FTD |
| 1.014 | 0.000 | $3,700 | $8,400 | $4,600 | $76,400 | ||
Dee Gordon
Gordon is nice and cheap and worth returning to as a plug-and-play option at second base. He has a .381 wOBA right now, and while he does not have much power, he makes up for it with blazing speed and the ability to snag bases at will. Hammel has been worse against lefties this year, and despite the fact that he has been good over the last few games, I still like Gordon. He will be hitting at the top of the lineup and should have one of the best chances to score at least one run today.
 | Manny Machado | ||||||
| Daily Breakdown | Avg | OPS | HR% | wOBA | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Left/Right Splits | 0.235 | 0.629 | 1.68% | 0.275 | |||
| Last 7 Days Splits | 0.133 | 0.469 | 0.00% | 0.218 | |||
| Opp SP vs. LR | Avg | OPS | HR% | wOBA | |||
| Oberholtzer – LEFT | 0.291 | 0.766 | 0.00% | 0.335 | |||
| PARK-1 | PARK-LR | FD | DD | DK | FF | SS | FTD |
| 1.012 | 0.000 | $3,100 | $7,450 | $4,000 | $63,000 | ||
Manny Machado
Machado is nice and cheap, and with him leading off lately, I like him here against Oberholtzer. Machado does not have the numbers against lefties this year like I was expecting, but he has increased his walk rate against lefties and still shown a bit of power. Oberholtzer has only pitched a few innings, but those did not go well and I am not expecting it to be much different today. In 2013, Machado was a powerhouse against left-handed pitching, and I am expecting him to be somewhat low owned today for a fairly cheap price, especially on FanDuel.
 | Hanley Ramirez | ||||||
| Daily Breakdown | Avg | OPS | HR% | wOBA | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Left/Right Splits | 0.274 | 0.780 | 3.40% | 0.344 | |||
| Last 7 Days Splits | 0.222 | 0.757 | 7.41% | 0.314 | |||
| Opp SP vs. LR | Avg | OPS | HR% | wOBA | |||
| Pelfrey – RIGHT | 0.338 | 0.000 | 2.46% | 0.399 | |||
| PARK-1 | PARK-LR | FD | DD | DK | FF | SS | FTD |
| 1.072 | 0.000 | $3,400 | $9,450 | $5,000 | $79,700 | ||
Hanley Ramirez
Finally Hanley has been a lot better in the last few games, raking in the fantasy points, going for 15+ in three of the last four games on DraftKings. He has a career .370 wOBA against righties, and although he has not been good this year, a progression is due for him, and he has started to swing a better bat here lately. Pelfrey continues to struggle more against righties than lefties and has allowed a .404 wOBA away from home to them. Hanley’s price is great on FanDuel, but is a little priced out on DraftKings.
 | A.J. Pollock | ||||||
| Daily Breakdown | Avg | OPS | HR% | wOBA | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Left/Right Splits | 0.309 | 0.933 | 3.70% | 0.404 | |||
| Last 7 Days Splits | 0.273 | 0.815 | 4.55% | 0.359 | |||
| Opp SP vs. LR | Avg | OPS | HR% | wOBA | |||
| Wood – LEFT | 0.248 | 0.681 | 0.00% | 0.304 | |||
| PARK-1 | PARK-LR | FD | DD | DK | FF | SS | FTD |
| 1.154 | 0.000 | $4,200 | $8,550 | $4,200 | $80,600 | ||
A.J. Pollock
Today I am loving AJ Pollock, who has stolen base upside, hits at the top of the lineup and has a .390 wOBA against lefties on the season. He has been just raking against them and is one of the more trusted bats in the D’Backs lineup. He continues to make a great pairing with Goldy against lefties, and Alex Wood is going to have some work cut out for him today at Chase Field. Pollock’s .220 ISO and 1.066 OPS against lefties are very good, and while there is some regression possible, it is not completely unlikely he keeps up this pace.
 | Matt Joyce | ||||||
| Daily Breakdown | Avg | OPS | HR% | wOBA | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Left/Right Splits | 0.237 | 0.684 | 1.86% | 0.305 | |||
| Last 7 Days Splits | 0.273 | 1.087 | 13.64% | 0.457 | |||
| Opp SP vs. LR | Avg | OPS | HR% | wOBA | |||
| Colome – RIGHT | 0.263 | 0.731 | 2.63% | 0.324 | |||
| PARK-1 | PARK-LR | FD | DD | DK | FF | SS | FTD |
| 0.919 | 0.000 | $2,500 | $7,650 | $3,600 | $51,700 | ||
Matt Joyce
Joyce is basically free on both sites, and with his terrible start to the season, I do not blame the pricing here. He has come alive in the last week with three homers in his last four games, and if we think back to years past, his homers have all come in bunches. This is a great opportunity to continue to buy low on a proven hitter against right-handed pitching who is starting to get it together. His numbers this year are going to come up and it looks like Colome is going to be a victim of that today.
 | Steve Pearce | ||||||
| Daily Breakdown | Avg | OPS | HR% | wOBA | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Left/Right Splits | 0.310 | 1.016 | 7.76% | 0.432 | |||
| Last 7 Days Splits | 0.231 | 0.978 | 15.38% | 0.411 | |||
| Opp SP vs. LR | Avg | OPS | HR% | wOBA | |||
| Oberholtzer – LEFT | 0.291 | 0.766 | 0.00% | 0.335 | |||
| PARK-1 | PARK-LR | FD | DD | DK | FF | SS | FTD |
| 1.012 | 0.000 | $2,800 | $6,800 | $3,800 | $60,000 | ||
Steve Pearce
Pearce should also be a candidate for improved play, as his .274 wOBA is terrible but should be much better by season’s end. He does have a .374 career wOBA, and while his massive 2014 (.472 wOBA) is probably more of an aberration than the norm, I still think Pearce is a dangerous hitter against left-handed pitching. I talked a bit above why I think Oberholtzer is not one of the better pitching options today, so the Orioles’ righties and some lefties should be targeted. Pearce is cheap and was a champion of the double dong last year in odd spots.
 | Bryce Harper | ||||||
| Daily Breakdown | Avg | OPS | HR% | wOBA | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Left/Right Splits | 0.297 | 0.913 | 6.44% | 0.391 | |||
| Last 7 Days Splits | 0.353 | 1.265 | 11.76% | 0.526 | |||
| Opp SP vs. LR | Avg | OPS | HR% | wOBA | |||
| Dickey – RIGHT | 0.221 | 0.688 | 2.29% | 0.308 | |||
| PARK-1 | PARK-LR | FD | DD | DK | FF | SS | FTD |
| 1.068 | 0.000 | $5,900 | $12,300 | $4,800 | |||
Bryce Harper
More of a DraftKings play than anything, Harper is here because he is now only $4,800 on DK. I am not sure why the price decreased, and maybe it has to do with the fact that he has been just okay lately. Still, he is facing a right-hander today and has put up video game type numbers this year against righties. Dickey should not pose an issue for the young slugger and I like Harper to get back on track with his home run parade at home.