Daily Batter Breakdown: Opening Day

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2014-03-31 18:13:01

Welcome to the Daily Batter Breakdown. Each day, with at least 8 games on the night slate, I’ll breakdown some of the best top tier hitters to target based on matchup. The biggest split taken into account will be left/right, but each player card will also show park factors, player salaries and then a description of why I’ll be targeting him. Be sure to check out the FAQ for more information on specific stats.

If you were a frequenter of the column last year, you will notice a little change in the format of how the article looks. The tables have gone away and each player now has their own statboard to preview their matchup. I expect to tweak a few things about this article throughout the season to include different things in my analysis such as some Pitch F/X analysis, number of hitters previewed, value plays and top salary upside plays, and this will be the format for what you see most of the season. Feedback for what helps you guys out more is also appreciated and I will do my best to put in more of what everyone is wanting to read.

Everyone has been looking forward to Opening Day for a while, and while I was doing my college research I have been checking in with baseball news as well. Everyone has high hopes for this season as DFS becomes more mainstream and there should be an influx of new players coming into the game. The prize pools are greater, the amount of contests is greater, and there are multiple different sites that offer different scoring systems, roster combinations, and the debated topic of stacking. Opening Day brings an interesting wrinkle into the DFS game as essentially every team is going to start their Ace, so batting scores in general today should be lower than usual.

		Brad Miller
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.262	0.767	3.88%	0.333
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.350	1.05	10.00%	0.451
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Weaver – RIGHT			0.227	0.622	5.36%	0.283
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.968	0.987	$2,900	$6,577	$8,350	$3,100	$65,200		$7,600

Brad Miller

Normally I do not take Spring Training stats into account, but Miller is a guy whose stats I am going to look at. He has been battling with Nick Franklin for the shortstop position as Cano holds down 2nd and has done exceptionally well in winning the spot in the spring. He’s really cheap for his potential on most sites, and a matchup against the right handed Weaver isn’t phasing me as he did his best work against righties last year. The fact that Seattle now has Cano in the middle of the order makes Miller as the leadoff even that more enticing in this one. He’s very cheap on a lot of sites and using him doesn’t even feel like a punt.

		Paul Goldschmidt
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.309	0.986	7.38%	0.414
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.261	0.715	4.35%	0.289
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Bumgarner – LEFT			0.215	0.592	8.87%	0.275
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.974	1.044	$5,000	$8,345	$12,750	$5,400	$102,500		$12,100

Paul Goldschmidt

Goldy has proven to be one of the best options at first base no matter the matchup. He is also going to be one of the most expensive players on the board day in and day out in MLB. Bumgarner has been fantastic in the spring and normally this would be a fade for me but there are a couple of reasons that are dragging me to Goldschmidt today as one of the top high dollar upside options. First, it is going to be hard to avoid a stud pitcher if you are searching for hitters as nearly every team is throwing out their ace. Second, Goldy is batting in hitter-friendly Chase Field and has absolutely murdered left handed pitching in his short career. Even with Bumgarner pitching, the game still has one of the highest over/unders of the day and he will give you 2 HR upside without being highly owned.

		Austin Jackson
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.296	0.784	2.04%	0.343
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.389	1.111	5.56%	0.474
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Shields – RIGHT			0.272	0.735	6.64%	0.331
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.139	1.090	$3,200	$6,838	$9,650	$4,000	$79,000		$9,100

Austin Jackson

I know Jackson is my twitter avatar, and I am possibly partial to this pick, but I really think that Jackson is going to have a great year under Ausmus. Jackson will most likely hit 5th are the reports coming out of Detroit in this game and while it cuts down on runs, it increases his RBI opportunites. Jackson has consistently hit better against right handed pitching in his career, and while Shields is tough, Jackson’s price is completely managable. Everything Ausmus has said and what the Tigers organization has done over the winter has shown a desire to be speedy on the basepaths and I finally think Jackson’s talent at swiping bags is going to be utilized. I know that spring training stats are generally meaningless, but it cannot hurt that Jackson has been blazing hot in the preseason.

		Ryan Howard
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.173	0.539	3.70%	0.238
		Last 7 Days Splits
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Perez – LEFT			0.282	0.741	7.69%	0.338
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.985	1.002	$3,200	$6,223	$9,000	$4,500	$71,300		$8,800

Ryan Howard

Howard has really been a GPP-only play for the last year or so while he battles age, injuries, and pitchers adjusting to him. He brings a proven track record of hitting the big fly, but also brings risk with a large strikeout rate and a low walk rate. Howard should be fully healthy coming into this season and it’s extremely hard to discount the Phillies’ matchup against a guy like Tanner Scheppers who was a bullpen arm last year and is making an opening day start for his first MLB start in a hitter’s park today. Howard’s price is extremely affordable across the industry for a guy with his potential coming into the season. I don’t hate a Phillies stack and Howard should be stuck in the middle of it.

		Daniel Nava
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.322	0.894	2.95%	0.392
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.471	1.147	5.88%	0.502
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Tillman – RIGHT			0.247	0.738	8.20%	0.327
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.057	1.073	$3,000	$5,875	$9,700	$4,100	$64,500		$8,200

Daniel Nava

Nava is a guy who is fairly affordable today but brings a ton of upside. Nava should be batting at the top or near the top of the Red Sox lineup in a game against the Orioles which has the highest over/under of the day. Nava was a switch hitter last year, but was a plus batter against right handed pitching doing some of the best work in all of MLB against right handed batters. His OPB was .411 and OPS was almost .900 and here he gets a guy in Tillman who should be fairly easily attacked by this Red Sox lineup. Nava is a great H2H play today and I really like his value if he does end up leading off the Red Sox lineup.

		David DeJesus
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.266	0.772	2.09%	0.341
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.250	0.822	4.17%	0.351
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Dickey – RIGHT			0.255	0.760	8.02%	0.335
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.931	0.976	$2,600	$5,331	$8,700	$3,500	$55,700		$6,700

David DeJesus

A guy that should be on your radar that might not be is David DeJesus. He has been announced the opening day leadoff man for the Rays, and he gets the knuckleballer R.A. Dickey today. Much was made about the knuckleball’s lack of movement in a dome last year, and I definitely believe that there is truth to that story. DeJesus hits righties fairly well, is extremely cheap, and will hit at the top of a pretty solid lineup. Dickey doesn’t struggle that much more against left handers, but the differences in right vs left is noticeable. I really like his leadoff potential and cheap price today.

		Giancarlo Stanton
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.278	1.006	8.33%	0.426
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.200	0.488	0.00%	0.22
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		De La Rosa – LEFT			0.286	0.755	8.64%	0.344
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.030	0.930	$4,200	$7,116	$11,900	$5,300	$78,400		$10,100

Giancarlo Stanton

If you’re looking for a stud that doesn’t cost like Cabrera or Goldschmidt, you can look at Stanton to fill that void. Stanton is one of the top young hitters in the game and has some ridiculous power to his swing that every time he is at the plate he can send it deep. Stanton’s walk rate is very good and should continue to be as the guys around him are not really too much of an improvement over last year. His matchup is extremely solid as he faces off against Jorge De La Rosa who was bad against right handed batters last year giving up all 11 homers against them, a .770 OPS, and was actually a worse pitcher away from Coors Field giving up 8 of his 11 homers and allowing over a full point of ERA higher.

		Evan Longoria
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.256	0.799	4.99%	0.345
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.414	1.247	10.34%	0.52
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Dickey – RIGHT			0.228	0.664	6.94%	0.302
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.931	0.967	$4,100	$7,467	$11,250	$5,200	$80,100		$10,500

Evan Longoria

Another guy from Tampa Bay, Longoria should be one of the top 3rd base options on the board for me. If you can tell, I am not a huge fan of Dickey today and I think a Rays stack could be the way to go. with Wil Myers giving protection to Longoria and Longo being completely healthy to start the season, I think there is just a matter of time until he is the #1 priced 3rd baseman. The R/R matchup is not desirable but in a day full of aces taking the mound I am not too keen on many other 3rd basemen. I really like Pedro Alvarez as a GPP play and I think Will Middlebrooks is another option that could provide some salary relief for H2H games if you cannot get around the R/R matchup that Longoria has. I am extremely high on the Rays players today in this matchup and I think Longoria gets it done against Dickey.

		John Jaso
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.282	0.802	1.66%	0.363
		Last 7 Days Splits
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Masterson – RIGHT			0.248	0.681	10.93%	0.316
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.889	0.931	$2,700	$5,815	$7,500	$3,200	$58,000		$7,100

John Jaso

This seems like a fairly decent day to punt the catcher position if you refuse to roster Buster Posey. I do like Wieters, but a solid punt play today should be John Jaso if this game does not get rained out. Jaso is extremely cheap and is a lefty killer which is why he will platoon with Derek Norris this year. Luckily for Jaso, a righty in Masterson will start for the Indians on Opening Day and if you paid attention last year, you would know that Masterson was lights out against righties and really struggled at times against left handed batters. Jaso has a great walk rate and is a very solid punt option today provided that the game gets played – this is the only game with weather concerns of the day.

		Dan Uggla
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.188	0.692	5.22%	0.311
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.091	0.377	0.00%	0.174
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Gallardo – RIGHT			0.272	0.707	6.83%	0.315
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.110	1.037	$2,900	$5,264	$8,900	$3,200	$57,000		$6,100

Dan Uggla

Everyone’s least favorite power 2nd baseman will open the season as the starter for the Braves in a fairly potent offense. There is a bit of a disclaimer on this play as he should only be used in GPP formats due to his strikeout rate and incredible streakiness, but he makes a solid gamble in big leagues. Uggla definitely has power, he hasn’t been awful in Spring, and what is fairly surprising, Uggla has actually hit right handers better than lefties in his career. He has 2 HR upside, should be owned at a low percentage, he’s extremely cheap and faces Gallardo in Miller Park where Gallardo really struggled last year. I’m anxious to see Gallardo’s velocity on his fastball, but he is anything but an ace in my mind.