Daily Batter Breakdown: Tue, May 6th

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2014-05-06 18:39:30

Welcome to the Daily Batter Breakdown. Each day, with at least 8 games on the night slate, I’ll breakdown some of the best top tier hitters to target based on matchup. The biggest split taken into account will be left/right, but each player card will also show park factors, player salaries and then a description of why I’ll be targeting him. Be sure to check out the FAQ for more information on specific stats.

Another game at Coors tonight with below average pitchers makes tonight pretty easily predictable that there will be 30-50% ownership of the guys in that game. If you’re firing one bullet into a qualifier I might almost think of fading that game completely and going a different direction as there are a couple of other solid matchups to target and hoping that it ends 3-2 or something like that. I have one other favorite option to stack and I explain below:

		Bryan Holaday
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.333	0.667	0.00%	0.298
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.400	1	0.00%	0.446
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Oberholtzer – LEFT			0.255	0.720	6.50%	0.316
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.139	1.090	$2,400	$4,388	$7,650	$2,500	$46,800	$3,400	$5,100

Bryan Holaday

Obviously you’re going to want to wait and see if Holaday is in the lineup because he only spells Avila at times, but tonight would be a solid night for Ausmus to put him in against Oberholtzer. You’ll see a trend in this articles with a lot of Tigers who I like to rough up on Oberholtzer who has allowed 6 ER in 2 straight starts and has allowed right handers to essentially do whatever they would like in his last 2 starts. Holaday is cheap, has limited power, but could be a bargain play in a great offense if he’s in.

		Billy Butler
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.227	0.580	0.00%	0.250
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.381	1.01	4.76%	0.428
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Erlin – LEFT			0.252	0.670	6.40%	0.296
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.831	0.919	$2,400	$5,918	$8,300	$4,000	$61,400	$6,000	$8,600

Billy Butler

Butler hasn’t been able to get in much in this series against San Diego because of no DH, however I am expecting him to man first tonight and bat in the middle of the lineup. He’s WAY too cheap for a guy who has consistently hit lefties at a .900 OPS plus mark throughout his career and is starting to turn it on this year. There are a ton of good first basemen out there today but Butler’s ridiculously low salary is the best bargain out of all of them. Erlin is a solid punt pitcher so I’m expecting people to stay off Butler but I like him for a few doubles.

		Ian Kinsler
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.391	1.025	4.35%	0.448
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.409	0.917	0.00%	0.398
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Oberholtzer – LEFT			0.255	0.720	6.50%	0.316
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.139	1.090	$3,500	$8,266	$9,450	$4,800	$86,500	$7,400	$12,500

Ian Kinsler

A Kinsler/Davis combo at the top of the Tigers lineup would really make me happy tonight against Oberholtzer who has given up 6 ER in the last 2 games and is allowing a .922 OPS to right handers with all 4 HRs. The Tigers lineup is basically all right handed bats and I really see Oberholtzer going down in flames today with these guys like Kinsler, Davis, Cabrera and even Castellanos who rock left handed pitching. Kinsler is my top 2nd base play of the day today even over the guys playing in Coors Field and I think he homers early in this one.

		Everth Cabrera
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.280	0.657	0.00%	0.292
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.080	0.16	0.00%	0.072
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Guthrie – RIGHT			0.325	0.889	6.42%	0.390
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.831	0.976	$2,600	$3,657	$7,500	$3,300	$42,000	$5,900	$8,400

Everth Cabrera

Look at that price! I know a few people have been punishing themselves taking Cabrera recently due to his low price and his decently high upside, and I can’t blame them. I might hop on the bandwagon tonight as the Padres finally scored a couple of runs last night and will look to keep it going tonight against Guthrie who is awful against lefties. Cabrera isn’t a great left handed hitter but as long as Guthrie is serving up whiffle balls, Cabrera should be able to get on base and make his minimum salary worth a play. This is definitely a gamble play and I would avoid him in H2H games but he’s definitely someone who can open up the more expensive hitters in a GPP.

		Josh Donaldson
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.300	0.977	6.67%	0.420
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.273	0.726	0.00%	0.329
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Elias – LEFT			0.256	0.725	12.09%	0.337
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.889	1.007	$4,300	$9,323	$10,100	$4,700	$104,400	$7,500	$13,100

Josh Donaldson

Roenis Elias had a ridiculous start the last time out and really surprised everyone. He pitched way above his mean and I am expecting a bit of a regression; Donaldson is the perfect guy to give it to him. Donaldson’s numbers against lefties are extremely solid and he’s never a terrible play against lefties but I like him today especially since the other 3B options like Beltre and Arenado at Coors are going to be just as expensive as him. If you want to play the contrarian game and hope that those two struggle today, Donaldson is your guy that’s going to give you 2 HR upside at the 3b position.

		Shin-Soo Choo
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.250	0.846	3.85%	0.375
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.500	1.354	6.25%	0.573
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Nicasio – RIGHT			0.246	0.774	11.05%	0.347
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.273	1.042	$4,500	$8,491	$11,950	$5,200	$91,500	$9,000	$9,400

Shin-Soo Choo

I really like Choo tonight again and I think he goes deep in this game. Nicasio has really struggled against lefties this year allowing a .925 OPS to them so far, and really struggled at keeping lefties in the park last year as well. Nicasio’s GB/FB rates are pretty poor and that’s not something that you want to do in Coors. He had a good start last time out but I would expect a bit of a correction especially against the Rangers who are playing their 2nd game in Coors and should be acclimated to the altitude. I like the Rangers more tonight than I did last night and I think we could have a 11-10 shootout on our hands tonight.

		Drew Stubbs
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.238	0.606	0.00%	0.278
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.300	1.017	10.00%	0.441
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Ross – LEFT			0.253	0.615	6.82%	0.289
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.273	1.146	$2,600	$5,715	$6,950	$3,500	$42,400	$5,500	$4,600

Drew Stubbs

Stubbs had a really nice game last night against Perez and definitely paid off his value. Tonight is eerily similar and if I had to guess he is going to be at the top of the lineup again against another lefty. Stubbs was a streaky hitter with Cincinnati and appears to be heating up especially with his .947 OPS at Coors and his 1.257 OPS in the last 7 days. His price is way too cheap for an upside play in Coors and if he’s in the lineup I want him in my lineups tonight.

		Rajai Davis
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.294	0.879	5.88%	0.374
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.267	0.6	0.00%	0.264
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Oberholtzer – LEFT			0.255	0.720	6.50%	0.316
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.139	1.090	$3,800	$9,397	$9,750	$4,900	$73,200	$6,000	$10,500

Rajai Davis

Davis’ price is high but the upside he brings to the table when leading off for the Tigers is enormous. As noted above I think that Oberholtzer really struggles against the Tigers right handed bats today and that this one gets ugly. I think Davis can have a field day today as he brings power, stolen bases and crushes left handers. It doesn’t even matter if Oberholtzer gets rocked, leaves early, and Houston brings in a right handed reliever because Davis has been crushing them too and is essentially an auto-steal against righties as well. I’m trying to fit him in tonight.

		Anthony Rizzo
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.230	0.750	3.28%	0.340
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.357	1.591	21.43%	0.615
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Noesi – RIGHT			0.345	0.909	5.49%	0.404
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.192	1.022	$3,900	$8,808	$10,950	$4,900	$90,900	$8,900	$9,100

Anthony Rizzo

Noesi wasn’t good at all in his last start against the Tigers, but the White Sox really don’t have much pitching help. I’m surprised the Cubs over/under is only 3.5 considering how horrid Noesi has been this year. Rizzo crushes right handers and hits well at home so I don’t think he has too much issue getting to Noesi here even with the wind blowing in. I probably won’t be targeting Cubs to stack today but I do like Rizzo’s matchup considering his 3 homers in 5 games and the fact that in the last 6 games he’s obtained a hit and a walk in each one at least.

		Troy Tulowitzki
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.419	1.229	6.45%	0.522
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.619	1.74	9.52%	0.72
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Ross – LEFT			0.253	0.615	6.82%	0.289
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.273	1.146	$5,300	$10,956	$13,650	$6,100	$140,800	$8,300	$13,500

Troy Tulowitzki

I’m looking at his price, and he’s priced like a pitcher right now, but can you really say no at this point? Against a lefty in a 10.5 over/under game at Coors Field? I’m using him and I’m going to root for those giant numbers to keep getting bigger.