Daily Batter Breakdown: Tuesday, June 2nd

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-06-05 13:11:08

Welcome to the Daily Batter Breakdown. Whenever there are at least eight games on the night slate, I’ll break down some of the best top tier hitters to target based on matchup.

The biggest split taken into account will be left/right, but each player card will also show park factors, player salaries on FanDuel and DraftKings among other sites, and then a description of why I’ll be targeting him.

Disclaimer: Once again, all Dodgers in Coors Field will make solid plays, and assuming it is Greinke in the second game of the doubleheader, the Rockies get a bump but not a great one. Again, a Dodgers stack looks nice tonight.

		Jonathan Lucroy
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.287	0.804	2.46%	0.355
		Last 7 Days Splits
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Lynn – RIGHT		0.237	0.647	1.36%	0.289
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.100	0.000	$2,900	$5,150	$3,800

Jonathan Lucroy

There is no beating around the bush; Lucroy has been awful this year and has been injured as well. He is just making his way back into regular at-bats for the Brewers and will get a lot of the starts from now on. There is no guarantee he starts tonight as the Brewers might want to take it easy, but if he does we are getting a proven power hitter for extremely cheap who is going to be hitting at the top of the lineup. Lucroy has struggled this year but had a .369 wOBA and a .166 ISO against righties last year, which are solid numbers for the price he is sitting at.

		Joey Votto
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.253	0.809	3.16%	0.362
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.238	0.956	9.52%	0.411
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		O’Sullivan – RIGHT		0.364	1.186	12.13%	0.493
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.929	0.000	$3,600	$9,550	$4,700	$85,100

Joey Votto

Votto is arguably the top first baseman on the night against O’Sullivan. He has been terrible against lefties and there is no way around it; Sullivan owns a .530 wOBA, 5.99 xFIP, 2.07 WHIP and a 6.52 (!!!) HR/9 over the sample he has faced against lefties this year. There is no way that a pitcher can be that bad, but one thing is for certain – all of the Reds lefties are in play here. Votto has gotten back on the horse after struggling following his torrid start, but he rakes against right-handers and will be in a good situation in hitter-friendly Citizens Bank.

		Brandon Moss
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.225	0.749	5.03%	0.326
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.320	0.89	4.00%	0.375
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Guthrie – RIGHT		0.308	0.879	4.92%	0.385
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.014	0.000	$3,500	$9,250	$4,600	$72,400

Brandon Moss

Another lefty first baseman, Moss comes into this game as a righty masher against Guthrie, who is trying to rival O’Sullivan as the premier pitcher to target with lefty hitters. A 4.69 wOBA allowed with a 5.83 xFIP are just horrible numbers, and while he has not given up as many homers, his BABIP looks like there may be a decent regression. Guthrie is still terrible against lefties though and Moss rakes against righties, with a career .226 ISO and .343 wOBA, which has been more like .375 over the last few years.

		Daniel Murphy
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.289	0.747	1.62%	0.327
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.333	0.801	0.00%	0.355
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Kennedy – RIGHT		0.251	0.762	3.22%	0.332
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.826	0.000	$2,800	$7,100	$3,600	$60,400

Daniel Murphy

I am not as excited about this play as the other two, but Murphy is cheap on both sites here and has a great matchup despite being at Petco. Murphy loves to hit against righties, with a .356 wOBA this year and decent power, and Kennedy has been terrible against lefties with a .463 wOBA allowed. His xFIP at 4.34 is not awful like Guthrie’s or O’Sullivan’s numbers, but Kennedy still has not found the solid pitching form of years past. This is not a high over/under game, but you would be hard pressed to do better at second base than the best hitter on the Mets with Duda out.

		Lonnie Chisenhall
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.265	0.757	3.31%	0.331
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.294	0.922	5.88%	0.394
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Guthrie – RIGHT		0.308	0.879	4.92%	0.385
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.014	0.000	$2,500	$5,800	$3,900	$51,500

Lonnie Chisenhall

This one is simple, really. Chisenhall is not a great hitter and that is why he is always so cheap, but he hits well against right-handed pitching. His .344 wOBA is not bad and he has a bit of pop as well, which is great for the price you are getting him at. Guthrie is terrible against lefties, and with the Indians being so lefty heavy with solid bats, this could be another ugly, ugly outing for the Kansas City hurler. I am on all of the Indians lefties today and I love the price, which gives us the ability to roster some good pitchers.

		Alex Rodriguez
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.194	0.813	5.56%	0.347
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.423	0.987	3.85%	0.425
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Montgomery – Left
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.825	0.000	$3,300	$8,650	$4,200	$72,400

Alex Rodriguez

I do not know much about Mike Montgomery, but I know he is a lefty and that A-Rod is having a renaissance season here with a .359 wOBA against lefties. He is not the power masher he once was, but he still has very nice power for the price you are paying and is proven in the majors, unlike the pitcher he is facing in Montgomery. He has been in the lower leagues since 2008 and has finally worked his way to the majors while posting some decent stats, so this does not look like an outright stack. However, I am not expecting him to shut down the Yankees either.

		Starlin Castro
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.324	0.807	0.72%	0.352
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.211	0.496	0.00%	0.186
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Hand – LEFT		0.279	0.780	2.39%	0.342
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.014	0.000	$2,600	$6,400	$4,000	$52,600

Starlin Castro

What is Castro good for? Well, he is a shortstop and is extremely cheap, especially on FanDuel today. He did homer last night and is facing a lefty, a type of pitcher he actually has very good numbers against this year. A .381 wOBA, and a .400 average are both solid numbers, but the problem is he has not shown much power at all against lefties. I think it is coming and I think he has more than he has shown so far, but we’re looking at a shortstop position with a dearth of options. Hand has been solid against righties in the last two years but has generally been awful with a 4.84 xFIP against them. This is a risky play, but it could pay off in a big way.

		Adam Eaton
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.286	0.743	0.23%	0.330
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.212	0.6	3.03%	0.276
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Lewis – RIGHT		0.312	0.863	2.58%	0.374
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.052	0.000	$2,500	$6,800	$3,900	$54,700

Adam Eaton

Colby Lewis finally broke down in the last game against the Indians and now has to face the White Sox, who are not as intimidating as the lefty heavy Indians but still pack some punch. Lewis is again going to be pitching in a hitter’s park and has allowed a 5.46 xFIP with a .378 wOBA to lefties. Eaton’s numbers are terrible this year, but he is due for a progression to better numbers since his BABIP is low – he does not have a lot of power so he is relying on balls to fall in for points. He’s another cheap bat who has a great matchup.

		J.D. Martinez
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.303	0.865	4.82%	0.373
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.240	0.641	0.00%	0.291
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Graveman – RIGHT		0.259	0.692	1.85%	0.309
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.003	0.000	$3,200	$7,750	$4,500	$64,800

J.D. Martinez

Martinez has been one of the best and most consistent hitters for the Tigers this year. I doubt that he is going to be highly owned because of the righty/righty matchup, but his price on FanDuel makes him a great GPP play. Graveman has been bad against right-handers this year compared to before with a .320 wOBA, and Martinez has a .356 wOBA and a .227 ISO against righties.

		Bryce Harper
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.297	0.913	6.44%	0.391
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.250	1.142	12.50%	0.477
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Dickey – RIGHT		0.221	0.688	2.29%	0.308
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.068	0.000	$5,800	$12,000	$5,200	$105,300

Bryce Harper

With all of the solid cheap options today, there shouldn’t be a reason why you cannot afford Harper. We have Harper against Estrada, who continues to allow a lot of homers. Harper is obviously one of the best hitters in the game, and despite the fact that he has cooled off lately, we are still looking at one of the top upsides on the board. I am not exactly targeting all of the Nationals, but Harper is a great filler play, especially if you are able to find some cheap bats to stack.