Daily Batter Breakdown: Wednesday, June 3rd

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-06-06 13:41:17

Welcome to the Daily Batter Breakdown. Whenever there are at least eight games on the night slate, I’ll break down some of the best top tier hitters to target based on matchup.

The biggest split taken into account will be left/right, but each player card will also show park factors, player salaries on FanDuel and DraftKings among other sites, and then a description of why I’ll be targeting him.

Disclaimer: Just like the past two days, the plays in Coors Field will be fantastic today. The Rockies get a bigger bump than they have in the previous days as they are not facing Greinke or Kershaw, and the Dodgers again will be solid. Both teams will not be included here.

		Carlos Santana
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.262	0.805	3.56%	0.359
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.273	1.075	9.09%	0.458
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Vargas – LEFT		0.265	0.733	3.25%	0.322
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.014	0.000	$4,100	$10,100	$4,400	$82,400

Carlos Santana

Vargas is not great, but he is not horrible either. He does not really have a distinct split advantage, so the advantage we are exploiting here with the Indians is the righties who crush left-handers. Santana hits much better from the right side against lefties, and with him batting at the top of the lineup, his struggles this year should be ending. Santana still has great power despite hitting lefties at a poor rate, but his .260 BABIP and .368 career wOBA means that a regression back to the mean is coming. He is a great play at catcher today.

		Chris Davis
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.200	0.718	6.00%	0.312
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.308	1.291	15.38%	0.516
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		McCullers – Right		0.188	0.591	0.00%	0.267
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.012	0.000	$3,500	$10,300	$4,700	$69,500

Chris Davis

I am impressed with McCullers’ K% and he makes a very interesting GPP target today against the Orioles, who do strike out a ton. However, he is still lacking in major league experience and he could be giving some power hitters the extra pop they need to send one out at Minute Maid. I wouldn’t necessarily use Davis on DraftKings because his salary is so high, but I think he is cheap enough on FanDuel to risk a two-homer night there. He has definitely been struggling against righties, but he still has a .250 ISO this year and his BABIP is due for a regression. A GPP play here, as I would not touch him in cash.

		Todd Frazier
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.259	0.815	5.42%	0.354
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.556	1.878	16.67%	0.769
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Hamels – LEFT		0.235	0.658	2.38%	0.290
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.929	0.000	$4,500	$11,500	$4,500	$91,400

Todd Frazier

Yeah, Hamels is good and is pitching at home here, but Frazier has been absolutely on fire for the past week and has been hitting extremely well this season. I am not necessarily into using him on FanDuel because of the increased price and the strong pitcher, but his price has decreased today on DraftKings despite now having the platoon advantage. He has a .440 wOBA, a .417 ISO and his BABIP is under the league average, proving that his strong start is not based on balls in play luck. Frazier has been incredible, and should be a very good filler play even against Hamels today.

		Luis Valbuena
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.253	0.814	4.66%	0.355
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.211	0.707	5.26%	0.31
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Gonzalez – RIGHT		0.253	0.757	3.61%	0.332
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.012	0.000	$2,700	$7,150	$3,800	$52,800

Luis Valbuena

How is Valbuena this cheap across the industry? Hee brings power in the middle of a solid lineup. I would not think of using him against a lefty, but even with his poor average, he is still managing a .350 wOBA against righties and a .276 ISO with one of the worst BABIPs that I have ever seen. He currently has a .211 BABIP, which means that a lot of his balls in play are going to start falling in. I am all in on him, even against Gonzalez, until that BABIP goes up and while he is still hitting 4th or 5th in this lineup.

		Will Middlebrooks
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.199	0.560	2.03%	0.254
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.308	0.937	7.69%	0.391
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Gee – RIGHT		0.236	0.701	3.23%	0.310
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.826	0.000	$2,700	$6,900	$3,300	$60,000

Will Middlebrooks

There is no guarantee that Middlebrooks will be in the lineup tonight, but he is one of the hottest hitters in the majors when he does play. He is extremely cheap (for good reason), but he is bringing upside here with a .151 ISO. Gee has improved against righties this year and is just coming off the DL. For extremely cheap, I am taking a gamble on Middlebrooks to afford some of the better pitchers in my cash games. I like Machado, Bryant and the 3B in Coors, but Middlebrooks will be a low owned cheap option who has been hitting better than his season long numbers.

		Xander Bogaerts
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.237	0.632	1.69%	0.282
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.200	0.435	0.00%	0.198
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Hughes – RIGHT		0.290	0.767	2.94%	0.333
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.072	0.000	$2,300	$6,050	$3,800	$51,100

Xander Bogaerts

Bogaerts used to be unplayable against righties, but he has improved in both of the years in the majors and is now sitting at a .304 wOBA and a .114 ISO. He is hot right now, and although he does hit at the bottom of the Red Sox lineup, Trevor May is definitely a guy to target today in Fenway. Xander is basically min-salary on FanDuel in a tough position and should be able to make his value tonight with his speed and small power combo against a poor pitcher. He is a great GPP gamble as well on FanDuel along with DraftKings.

		Steven Souza Jr.
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits
		Last 7 Days Splits
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Santiago – LEFT
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.919	0.000		$8,700	$4,300

Steven Souza Jr.

Souza has been struggling to maintain a solid average this year, but he does have a .423 wOBA against left-handed pitching. The Rays proved yesterday that they can hit lefties even with Wilson throwing a very solid game, as Longo, Souza, Butler, and a couple other guys are all lefty mashers. Santiago has a solid wOBA allowed of .289 against righties, but his xFIP is a less than desirable 4.4 and the Rays are not the pushovers the lineup makes them out to be. I like Souza as a GPP filler because of his HR power (.324 ISO) and his decent price.

		Adam Eaton
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.286	0.743	0.23%	0.330
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.241	0.678	3.45%	0.31
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Martinez – RIGHT		0.260	0.780	3.43%	0.344
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.052	0.000	$2,500	$6,800	$3,900	$48,600

Adam Eaton

Eaton homered last night against a righty, and I’m going back to the well tonight. His salary barely increased and you can still roster him for only $2,500 on FD. With Eaton, you need a bad pitcher along with a solid platoon split (.344 wOBA last year against righties) and Martinez should give that. I have been waiting for the other shoe to drop with Martinez for a while, and even though he has been pitching extremely well, he continues to allow a 4.8 xFIP against both righties and lefties. The regression is coming, and Eaton is cheap enough to take advantage.

		Aaron Hicks
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.282	0.787	0.00%	0.359
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.308	0.938	7.69%	0.408
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Rodriguez – Left
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.072	0.000	$2,500	$5,650	$3,500	$38,600

Aaron Hicks

It would be fun to continue to pick guys like Cabrera or Donaldson and recommend them, but we all know they produce day in and day out. The better part is to pick cheap guys who are going to be low owned with upside to get your choice of the pitchers and get great fillers with double digit point upside. I love Hicks on both sites, because I think he has one of the better chances at stealing a bag against the sinkerballer Porcello. Rick has always struggled at keeping lefties off the bag, and since Hicks has joined the Twins this year he has been solid with 10, 10 and 7 in the last 3 games (on DK). Hicks has minimal power but does steal bags and is one of the best candidates to do so with the Swihart/Porcello combo. Hicks had some monster games for Minnesota last year and will be around 1% owned today.

		Ryan Raburn
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.250	0.729	2.98%	0.315
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.385	1.505	15.38%	0.617
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Vargas – LEFT		0.265	0.733	3.25%	0.322
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.014	0.000	$2,400	$5,000	$2,800	$41,600

Ryan Raburn

Looks like a day for cheap outfielders today, as Raburn is very affordable on each site, FanDuel and DraftKings. Raburn is a total platoon player and only hits well against lefties, so he should be in the lineup today. His .426 wOBA and .279 ISO with other solid numbers against lefties is great for the price, and he will be one of the more popular value plays in the OF tonight to help you afford Kluber or Shields. Vargas is not terrible, but he is not great either, and Raburn works very well in a stack with Santana.