Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 2
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of the top defense/special teams plays for the week. I know defense tends to be an afterthought for some as they can be very boom or bust, but when you look at the final standings of these top heavy GPPs, often the choice at defense can be the difference in A LOT of money.
Defenses can make a huge difference in GPPs, but even in cash games, you do not want to spot your opponent points at any position by making “lazy” choices. You can certainly go cheap at defense many weeks, but I also think there are weeks where paying up for a top defense in the right matchup is the best play, especially in cash games. Defense and special team touchdowns can be unpredictable, but I also think you can put yourself in good situations to capitalize on those opportunities.
That being said, Week 1 may have been the lowest scoring defensive week I can ever remember. Only five teams even reached double digit scoring in Week 1. Only one team broke 20 points and they were lower owned. The second highest scoring team played on Monday night so they were not even available on the main slate of games on DraftKings. Crazy enough, the guy that won the Millionaire Maker, which had over one million entries, got only five points from his defense. It was just a strange week for defenses and a big week for most offenses. That being said, it was GREAT to have football back, and I am definitely ready for Week 2.
Week 1 2016 Recap
NOTE: The numbers below reflect an average of defensive fantasy points from the start of the 2014 season through Week 1 2016
Defense that Fit the Criteria: 9.04
Other Defenses to Target: 7.98
All Favorites: 8.46
All Home Teams: 7.32
All Teams: 6.94
As said above, Week 1 was a very low scoring week for defenses. To recap the defenses that fit the criteria for Week 1, I think we need to start by comparing them to the other categories being tracked. In Week 1, all defenses at home averaged only 5.1 fantasy points. All favorites averaged only 4.7 fantasy points. All teams in general averaged just 5.0 fantasy points.
Looking at the above, the six defenses that fit the criteria finished with an average score of 7.0 fantasy points. All but one of them finished above the averages listed above. So while it was definitely not a big week, the Eagles were one of the few teams that produced double digit fantasy points. The Seahawks and Texans produced a respectable nine fantasy points. Even the Cardinals and Ravens posted a respectable six fantasy points, which was in the top half of the league for Week 1. The only clunker was the Chiefs. It was surprising how bad the Chiefs played in the first half (and into the early third quarter). But they rallied late to win a crazy game, and the defense played much better in the later part of the second half and OT.
Defenses that Fit the Criteria (At Home, Favored and Opponent Team Total of 21 points or less)
Carolina Panthers ($5300 FD, $3900 DK) vs San Francisco – Carolina is a 12.5-point favorite with a total of 44.5. San Francisco’s team total is 16.00 points. Carolina was not great in Week 1 versus Denver but they did create three turnovers and get two sacks. They also were a top six defense last season in terms of total defense and scoring defense. This week I think they are in a very good spot against a 49ers team riding high from a 28-0 win on Monday night versus the Rams. Vegas odds seem to agree as the 49ers team total is a very low 15.75. Despite the score from Monday night, the 49ers offense still only managed 3.6 yards per rush, 170 passing yards, and a total of 320 yards. This was not a strong offensive performance by any means, and I think this 49ers offense is one of the two or three worst in the NFL. If I am spending up on defense this week, I think Carolina makes the best cash game play and a good GPP option as well.
New England Patriots ($4500 FD, $3000 DK) vs Miami – New England is a 6-point favorite with a total of 42. Miami’s team total is 18 points. From a point per dollar perspective, New England is one of my favorite plays of the week. I thought New England was impressive on Sunday night holding a good Cardinals offense to 21 points. This week they face a Dolphins offense that was in the bottom third of the NFL last season and managed only 214 total yards and ten points in Week 1. The Dolphins also allowed five sacks in Week 1. The Dolphins have historically struggled in New England losing their last eight games there. I do not expect anything different this week and think New England makes a very good GPP play and also a solid cash game play for the price.
Denver Broncos ($4700 FD, $3600 DK) vs Indianapolis – Denver is a six-point favorite with a total of 46.5. Indianapolis’ team total is 20.25. Looking back to Week 1, this Denver defense got off to a slow start but really started to turn it on as the game went along. They were consistently in Cam Newton ’s face and put a bunch of brutal hits on him. They finished with three sacks and forced one turnover. This is a Denver defense that was first or second in the NFL last season in pretty much every major defensive category. Their opponent this week is the Indianapolis Colts who showed in Week 1 they can have a high powered offense led by the return of Andrew Luck. That being said, I do not expect them to score anywhere close to 35 points this week against an elite Denver defense. Indianapolis has a little bit of a suspect offensive line and I think Denver will be in Luck’s face all game just as they were with Newton last week. Denver looks like a good GPP play this week that may come at lower ownership than usual as people avoid the Colts offense.
Houston Texans ($4900 FD, $3400 DK) vs Kansas City – Houston is a 1-point favorite with a total of 42. Kansas City’s team total is 20.5. As I mentioned last week, I think this Texans defense may end up being the best in the NFL. In Week 1 they were certainly solid holding the Bears to 14 points scored, picking up a turnover, and getting five sacks. Their opponent this week, the Chiefs, are coming off a huge rally where their offense started to click in the late second half and overtime. But I think they could be in for a much tougher test this week. Overall, this Chiefs offense, especially without Jamaal Charles, lacks a lot of explosiveness. They also were only 27th in total offense last year and allowed the sixth most sacks. Houston is not my favorite play of the week, but any team with JJ Watt on defense makes a solid GPP play almost every week.
Detroit Lions ($4400 FD, $2800 DK) at Tennessee – Detroit is a 6-point favorite with a total of 24. Tennessee has a team total of 21. I think this is another very interesting spot to look for GPPs as this Tennessee team finished last season allowing the most sacks and finished tied for allowing the most turnovers. We saw this again in Week 1 when the Titans allowed the Vikings defense to rack up 22 fantasy points. The Titans turned it over three times and the Vikings converted two of them into touchdowns. The Vikings also had two sacks. We cannot expect teams to always convert turnovers into touchdowns, but as I always mention in the opening, it is about opportunities. The Titans provide one of the best opportunities for big fantasy scores based on the amount of times they turn the ball over. I think Detroit makes a great contrarian GPP play this week at a depressed price point on both the major sites.
Chicago Bears ($4400 FD, $2900 DK) vs Philadelphia – Chicago is a three-point favorite with a total of 42. Philadelphia has a team total of 19.5 points. I am including this pick here because the Bears do fit the criteria, but please note this game is on Monday night, and is not included on the DraftKings main slate. The Bears are also probably my least favorite of the options presented this week (hopefully that is not the homer Eagles fan in me talking). But a lot of people went cheap with the Browns defense last week thinking they were in a good spot against a rookie QB making his first NFL start. While I am trying to not get too excited about one game against a bad opponent, I thought Carson Wentz looked like he belongs as a starting NFL QB already. He was certainly not perfect, but he did a great job of making all the throws he needed to and not turning the ball over. That being said, this is his first road game and the Bears defense (led by Vic Fangio) present a tougher test this week.
Other Defense to Target
Baltimore Ravens ($4500 FD, $3000 DK) – I would not fault anyone for using the Seahawks defense this week. But personally, I like the Panthers better at the same price point. So for my other defense to target this week, I am looking at the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens defense was very strong in Week 1 holding the Bills to only seven points scored. This week they face an even worse offense in the Cleveland Browns. This Browns offense should be one we can target all season and this week they are starting their backup QB, Josh McCown. McCown has been around the league for a long time and has even showed spells of above average QB play. But for most of his career, he has been someone very capable of turning the ball over. In his last 19 starts over the previous two seasons, he has turned the ball over 28 times. I think the Ravens make a very good cheaper pivot off the Panthers (of Seahawks) in cash games as they should present a high floor. They also have some upside in GPPs.