Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 5
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of the top defense/special teams plays for the week. I know defense tends to be an afterthought for some as they can be very boom or bust, but when you look at the final standings of these top heavy GPPs, often the choice at defense can be the difference in A LOT of money.
Defenses can make a huge difference in GPPs, but even in cash games, you do not want to spot your opponent points at any position by making “lazy” choices. You can certainly go cheap at defense many weeks, but I also think there are weeks where paying up for a top defense in the right matchup is the best play. Defense and special team touchdowns can be unpredictable, but I think you can certainly put yourself in good situations to capitalize on those opportunities.
Overall it was a tough week to really get focused on Week 5 of the NFL with all of the happenings in DFS over the last 48+ hours. That being said, once I started to write this column, I just felt a lot better about moving forward and on to building more lineups. That is the enjoyment of DFS for me. It’s fun to build lineups, sweat the games, and just try to compete. Family and friends will always be the most important thing, but I’ve always viewed DFS as great entertainment, and just a way to get away from normal life. I’ve always loved sports, and specifically fantasy sports, but DFS has brought them all together into one great thing. Trying to take down that huge GPP is always the goal, but at the end of the day for many of us, this is all about having fun. The last couple days have not been that much fun for me as at times I envisioned what life could be like without DFS. I think I’ve literally read almost every post in the now 150+ page thread on the forums, and often couldn’t resist responding to some of the posts. This is something I have been passionate about for 4+ years now. That being said, I think and hope things are moving in the right direction and I am excited to move forward and on to Week 5.
Week 4 Recap
NOTE: The numbers below reflect a running average from 2014 through 2015 Week 4.
Defense that Fit the Criteria: 9.63
Other Defenses to Target: 6.86
All Favorites: 8.46
All Home Teams: 7.50
All Teams: 7.13
Week 4 Top Scoring Defenses: Atlanta Falcons (21 pts), Carolina Panthers (18 pts), Detroit Lions (18 pts)
The defense that fit the criteria had a mediocre to below average week in Week 4. Seattle and Denver were two of the top defense that was highlighted and they produced solid but unspectacular totals of 9 and 10 fantasy points respectively. The last two teams listed that fit the criteria last week were Cincinnati and San Diego. Again, they produced totals that didn’t necessarily hurt you but weren’t going to help you take down a GPP either at 7 and 6 fantasy points respectively. The big miss of the week was the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals defense had been playing great and got a home matchup with St. Louis. Things just never came together for them last week. They gave up an early TD due to a turnover by their own offense, and then couldn’t seem to consistently stop the Rams offense which led to them producing only 1 fantasy point last week.
Defenses that Fit the Criteria (-3 or greater, at home, O/U of 45 or less)
Cincinnati Bengals ($4700 FD, $2800 DK) vs Seattle – Cincinnati is a 3-point favorite with a total of 43. I really did not think I would be targeting defenses against the Seahawks a lot this year, but the Seahawks offensive line play has been horrendous this year. They have allowed a whopping 18 sacks in four games this season, and have only scored five offensive TDs. They have also turned the ball over six times. The Cincinnati defense has recorded 11 sacks on the year and has forced six turnovers. I think this should be a low scoring game, and if Cincy can get a lead and force Seattle into more throwing situations, they should have a lot of chances to put pressure on Wilson. I especially like them on DK at a price over $1000 less than the highest priced defense.
Baltimore Ravens ($4500 FD, $2900 DK) vs Cleveland – Baltimore is a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 43.5. Overall the Ravens defense has been average to below average this season, but they are coming off a big first win and now get a home game with the Browns. The Browns offense has moved the ball better this year but they still have allowed 14 sacks and eight turnovers in four games so far this season. I think there will be opportunities for the Ravens to keep the momentum going here and get their defense trending in the right direction. The price on both sites is fair and I think the Ravens make a decent GPP option.
Kansas City Chiefs ($4600 FD, $2800 DK) vs Chicago – Kansas City is a 9.5 point-favorite with a total of 44.5. Through four games the Chiefs defense has struggled so far this year, but to me, this looks like a great spot for a bounce back game. Vegas seems to agree with me as the Chiefs are almost double digit favorites here, and the Bears are projected to score only about 17-18 points. With the return of Jay Cutler last week, the Bears did find a way to win, but they still turned the ball over three times and allowed three sacks. The Bears are allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing defenses, and Cutler has always has the propensity to turn the ball over. I think there will be some opportunities for the Chiefs secondary to make some plays in this game.
New York Giants ($4300 FD, $2900 DK) vs San Francisco – New York is a 7-point favorite with a total of 43. I didn’t expect the Giants to make this column very often this year, but through 4 weeks, the Niners seem to be presenting a very good matchup for whoever they face. They rank second to last in total offense and last in points scored per game with an average of only 12 points scored per game. The Giants have also been good at forcing turnovers with seven on the year while the Niners have turned the ball over seven times this season. The Giants also matchup nicely with what the Niners want to do as the Giants have the best rush defense in the NFL so far. I think the Giants make a good lower owned GPP play this week against the Niners struggling offense that is projected to score less than 20 points in this game.
Tampa Bay Bucs ($4000 FD, $2400 DK) vs Jacksonville – Tampa is a 3-point favorite with a total of 42. The defense that fits the criteria ends this week with what looks like the best punt option of the week. The Bucs defense has a very low price point on both FanDuel and DraftKings this week. The Jaguars offense continues to struggle points and are currently second worst in the NFL in point scored per game at 15.5. Vegas have the Jags projected to score less than 20 points in this game. The Bucs defense has not been very good overall but they have forced six turnovers through four weeks. Again, I think if you need the salary relief and looking to punt on defense, the Bucs may present the best option at their price point.
Other Defense to Target
Denver Broncos ($4900 FD, $3600 DK) at Oakland – The other defense to target this week is a defense I want to highlight simply because I think they are becoming the premier cash game target almost every week now. To me, Denver has the best defense in the NFL right now. They are first in total defense and second in points allowed per game. They lead the NFL in sacks and are second in takeaways. The Raiders offense has been much improved this year with Derek Carr and the addition of Amari Cooper, but I still think Denver makes the best cash game play this week, and obviously not a bad GPP play either. They even come at a slight discount over Seattle and Arizona on both sites this week.