Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 7
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of the top defense/special teams plays for the week. I know defense tends to be an afterthought for some as they can be very boom or bust, but when you look at the final standings of these top heavy GPP’s, often the choice at defense can be the difference in A LOT of money.
Defenses can make a huge difference in GPP’s, but even in cash games, you do not want to spot your opponent points at any position by making “lazy” choices. You can certainly go cheap at defense many weeks, but I also think there are weeks where paying up for a top defense in the right matchup is the best play. Defense and special team touchdowns can be unpredictable, but I think you can certainly put yourself in good situations to capitalize on those opportunities.
To recap my discussion from the column last week, I did end up playing less volume due to being away for the weekend. I mainly just took 6-8 shots at GPP’s on both sites on Sunday. Ultimately, I love to sit and watch football all day on Sundays, but it was nice to get away and not focus so much of my attention on fantasy football. I ended up with a net loss for the weekend (Eddie Lacy and/or Adrian Peterson killed a few good GPP teams) but I didn’t get yelled at much at all by my wife for constantly checking my phone. We even ended up watching a good portion of the Patriots/Colts game at the hotel bar Sunday night. My favorite team, the Eagles, played Monday night so I was home in time to watch the game in full. Overall, I’d call the weekend a net win despite only a few small GPP cashes and taking my first loss in my big season long league.
Week 6 Recap
NOTE: The numbers below reflect a running average from 2014 through 2015 Week 6:
Defense that Fit the Criteria: 9.29
Other Defenses to Target: 7.70
Week 6 Top Scoring Defenses: Miami (24 pts), Philadelphia (19 pts), Denver (17 pts)
The defense that fit the criteria had a down week in Week 6. Minnesota produced 8 fantasy points, the Seahawks produced seven fantasy points, the Jets produced six fantasy points, and the Lions only produced two fantasy points. The Vikings were the best play holding the Chiefs to only 10 points but the Vikings failed to force many turnovers or get many sacks. The Jets, Seahawks, and Lions all struggled to hold their opponents under 20 points or force many scoring opportunities. I did correctly pick the Lions getting their first win, though, so there is that.
The other defense to target was again very good with the Denver Broncos. As mentioned last week, I am going to have a hard time leaving the Broncos out of this column regardless of matchup. Unfortunately, the Broncos are on a bye in Week 7. But the Broncos produced a 17 point effort in Week 6 behind three forced turnovers, four sacks, and another defensive TD. This is the best defense in the NFL right now, and I do not think it is very close.
Defenses that Fit the Criteria (-3 or greater, at home, O/U of 45 or less)
St. Louis Rams ($4500 FD, $2400 DK) vs Cleveland – St. Louis is 5.5 point favorites with a total of 42. The Rams defense has flown under the radar so far this season due to a tough early season schedule that included Seattle, Pittsburgh, and road games against Arizona and Green Bay. The Rams are now coming off a bye and get a very good matchup at home against the Browns. The Browns offense has moved the ball pretty well but they have allowed 22 sacks and given up 11 turnovers. The Rams defense is averaging almost four sacks per game this season. I think the Rams make a fantastic play in both cash games and GPPs, especially at their depressed price point. The price on DK is criminally low in my
Washington Redskins ($4400 FD, $2500 DK) vs Tampa Bay – Washington is 3.5 point favorites with a total of 43. Normally the Redskins are not a defense that would show up on this list, but they actually been above average overall this season (top half of league in total defense and scoring defense). But the main reason they make the list this week is there opponent, Jameis Winston and the Tampa Bay Bucs. Tampa ranks 21st in total offense and 19th in scoring offense, and Winston has been very mistake prone, leading to 10 turnovers. Taking out the Jacksonville game, the Bucs have allowed an average of 13 fantasy points to defenses this season. With a price point very similar to the Rams on the both sites, I am not sure if I will have Washington on many of my rosters, but they could make a good contrarian GPP
Miami Dolphins ($4500 FD, $2700 DK) vs Houston – Miami is four-point favorites with a total of 44.5. The Dolphins defense had struggled through four weeks, but coming off their bye, they produced a great effort against the Titans that led to 24 fantasy points. I am not sure which Miami defense is for real, but they do have talent on this defense. The Texans present a matchup where I think if the Texans are forced to throw the ball, the Dolphins could have some opportunities for turnovers. The Texans have turned the ball over 10 times this season. Again, at a price point similar to the Rams or worse, I don’t love them, but they make another upside GPP option.
Other Defense to Target
Carolina Panthers ($4800 FD, $3100 DK ) vs Philadelphia – as an Eagles fan it pains me to put the Panthers here, but if I am paying up for one defense this week, I think it would be the Panthers. Sam Bradford has been really bad so far this season. The Eagles have turned the ball over 14 times in six games, which is 2nd-worst in the NFL. The Carolina defense has forced 11 turnovers so far this season. They are 7th in total defense and 7th in scoring defense. I do think the Eagles will move the ball, but as usual, they will run a lot of plays, and I think there will be a lot of opportunities for the Panthers to create some turnovers. Again, I think the Rams are the cash game play at their price point, but the Panthers may have the highest upside of any defense this week considering the matchup.