Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 9
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of the top defense/special teams plays for the week. I know defense tends to be an afterthought for some as they can be very boom or bust, but when you look at the final standings of these top heavy GPPs, often the choice at defense can be the difference in A LOT of money.
Defenses can make a huge difference in GPPs, but even in cash games, you do not want to spot your opponent points at any position by making “lazy” choices. You can certainly go cheap at defense many weeks, but I also think there are weeks where paying up for a top defense in the right matchup is the best play. Defense and special team touchdowns can be unpredictable, but I think you can certainly put yourself in good situations to capitalize on those opportunities.
This week I wanted to use this space to discuss how good this Denver defense may be from a historical standpoint. They are currently first in total defense, first in pass defense, first in scoring defense, first in sacks, second in takeaways, and fourth in rushing defense. From a historical standpoint, I wanted to compare them to the 2000 Baltimore Ravens, a defense many consider to be top 3-5 all-time. That season the Ravens ranked first in rushing defense, first in scoring defense, first in takeaways, second in total defense, and 22nd in passing defense. In looking at the raw numbers, the Ravens were better from a scoring defense perspective only allowing 10.3 points per game, while the current Broncos are allowing 16 points per game. The Ravens allowed a total of 248 yards per game, while the Broncos are allowing 261 yards per game. The Broncos are behind in turnover pace but well ahead of the Ravens’ pace for sacks.
If you take into account that offenses in 2015 are averaging 37 more yards per game and three more points per game than in 2000, I think you could argue that this Denver defense is on pace to put up a historical defensive season. That being said, they’ve only played seven games, so they would need to keep this up for nine more games.
Week 8 Recap
NOTE: The numbers below reflect a running average from 2014 through 2015 Week 8:
Defense that Fit the Criteria: 9.48
Other Defenses to Target: 7.56
All Favorites: 8.50
All Home Teams: 7.54
All Teams: 7.15
Week 8 Top Scoring Defenses: Houston Texans (20 pts), Cincinnati Bengals (13 pts), St Louis Rams (12 pts)
Editor’s Note: The NFL odds for the Houston/Tennessee game came out late last week. The Texans D ended up meeting the criteria and had a big performance.
There was only one defense that fit the criteria in Week 8, which was the St. Louis Rams. The Rams put up a strong effort holding the 49ers to only six points scored on the way to a 12-point fantasy output. That number could have been a lot higher but the Rams unfortunately were unable to force any turnovers. They still finished as the third-highest scoring defense of the week.
The other defenses to target were a mixed bag of production. The Broncos defense (mentioned in the opening) put up an overall dominating effort in shutting down the Packers high scoring offense. The Packers only scored 10 points. The Broncos defense produced a solid nine-point fantasy effort, mainly because as I mentioned last week, it is difficult to create many turnovers against Aaron Rodgers. The Seahawks defense also put up a strong defensive effort on the field, holding the Cowboys to 12 point scored, but this did not translate to a great fantasy scoring output. The Seahawks put up only six fantasy points as they also were unable to create any turnovers. They were a little unlucky in the regard. My last pick of the week was the Tennessee defense which only produced four fantasy points. Sometimes when trying to find a cheap GPP defense, you are just trying to catch lightning in a bottle. They did hold the Texans to 20 points scored and get three sacks, but their own offense was inept, and it made it tough for them to produce a solid fantasy output.
Defenses that Fit the Criteria (-3 or greater, at home, O/U of 45 or less)
New York Jets ($4700 FD, $3100 DK) vs Jacksonville – The Jets are 7-point favorites with a total of 41. After a great start to the season, the Jets defense has struggled the last two weeks. But those games were both on the road, with one game against the Patriots offensive juggernaut, and the other against a Raiders offense that has been very good this season as well. The Jets still rank third in the NFL in total defense and are first in run defense. This week they are back at home against a Jaguars offense that is in the bottom third in the NFL in total offense and scoring offense. Blake Bortles has also thrown fifth interceptions over his last three games. I think the Jets make a good play this week at a fair price on both sites, although I like them a little better on FanDuel.
Buffalo Bills ($4700 FD, $2900 DK) vs Miami – The Bills are 3-point favorites with a total of 44. The Bills have had one of the more disappointing defenses this season. They were considered a top 2-3 defense entering the season but have not lived up to those expectations. But the Bills have been strong against the run and I think if they can slow down Lamar Miller, they could force Tannehill into some turnovers (he has nine interceptions this season, which is fifth worst in the NFL). The Bills fit the criteria this week and the talent is there. I certainly don’t love them or think they are a safe option, but I think there could be some upside in this matchup.
Other Defenses to Target
Denver Broncos ($5300 FD, $3000 DK) at Indianapolis – I said in previous weeks that I would have trouble not recommending the Broncos defense in this column every week, and I continue to stand by that statement. Last week they put up a dominating effort against one of the top offenses in the NFL. I already discussed their defensive rankings in the opening, but this week they face a Colts offense that has turned the ball over 19 times, which is second worst in the NFL. There is not too much else I can add here but I think the Broncos are the premier cash game and GPP option this week. They are the highest priced option on FanDuel, and I wouldn’t hesitate to use them there. On DK, they come at a discount, and I expect them to be very heavily owned there.
New Orleans Saints ($4200 FD, $2200 DK) vs. Tennessee – If I decide to go cheap at defense this week, I will likely be looking at the Saints defense. Let me start by saying the Saints defense is not good. They just gave up six TD passes last week to Eli Manning. They are bottom three in the league in both total defense and scoring defense. So why would I suggest them? It’s all due to their matchup this week against the Tennessee Titans, who rank second worst in total offense and scoring offense. The Titans just fired their coach, and even with Mariota expected back this week, I still don’t think they have much talent on offense. The Saints are risky, but for near minimum price on both sites, I think they are worth a GPP flier.