Daily Fantasy NFL: H2H vs. GPP Plays - Week 12

Hatorade breaks down some of the best conservative plays for head to head action and 50/50s, then discusses which players you should be targeting with high risk/reward factors for tournaments this weekend.

Head to Head and 50/50 Game Plays: NFL Week 12

Quarterbacks

  • Matthew Stafford – He gets a matchup vs. the Buccaneers who are in the bottom 3rd against QBs. Megatron continues to roll and Nate Burleson looks like he will return this week. A lot of Reggie Bush production comes through Staff and the passing game as well.

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  • Tom Brady – Brady has a huge Sunday Night Football matchup vs. Peyton Manning and the Broncos. Both the teams play at a high pace and this game should be a shootout. Vegas has the o/u at 54, which is significantly higher than every other game this weekend and QBs have had success vs. the Broncos this year trying to keep up.

Running Backs

  • Matt Forte – He faces a Rams defense that has yielded huge games to several RBs this year and Forte has been a solid scorer every week except one. I think Forte has his best game of the year vs. the Rams this week.
  • Eddie Lacy – He has scored a TD in 4 of his last 5 games and he gets his 2nd crack at the Swiss cheese Minnesota D. He’s looking at another 20+ carries against one of the bottom run Ds in the league.

Wide Receivers

  • Wes Welker – He’s questionable to play this week, but he returned to practice Thursday. He has been about consistent as it gets this year and you add in the revenge factor vs. the Patriots and it makes him a great play if he is able to suit up this week. You can plug Eric Decker in this spot if Welker can’t go.

  • Vincent Jackson – Vjax hasn’t been the most consistent performer this year, but he draws his 2nd straight great matchup and the Bucs recommitted to feeding Vjax the football and big numbers resulted last week and should again this week as well.
  • Torrey Smith – He has been a yards monster this year and that has led to some pretty consistent fantasy scoring despite his lowly 3 TDs. 2 of those TDs have come in his last 2 games and the Jets have been horrible vs. the pass this year and the last few weeks in particular. Smith should make it 3weeks in a row with a TD.

Tight Ends

  • Rob Gronkowski – Along with Brady, Gronk has a great matchup vs. the Broncos this week in a game that should be fantasy gold. Gronk is going to continue to pile up targets as Brady’s top receiving option and constant red zone threat. There are only a couple teams that have given up more production to TEs than the Broncos.

  • Coby Fleener – One of the teams that have given up more TE production than the Broncos has been the Cardinals. With Jimmy Graham playing on Thursday there aren’t many go-to options at TE and Fleener has seen an increased roll since Reggie Wayne went down.

Defenses

  • Carolina Panthers – They face a Miami team missing several o-linemen and that is still dealing with the Martin/Incognito mess. The Dolphins have been one the most fantasy friendly opponents for defenses and that was with the lineman they are currently missing.
  • Kansas City Chiefs – The Chiefs have been the top scoring D this year as well as the most consistent option at the position. They get a good SD offense, but they’re at Arrowhead and they are going to be able to crank up the pressure and get some sacks and turnovers.


GPP and Tournament Plays: NFL Week 12

Quarterbacks

  • Ryan Fitzpatrick – Fitzy gets a very friendly matchup vs. a Raiders pass D that ranks toward the bottom of the league vs. QBs. He has done a decent job in his two games since Jake Locker went down for the year with an injury scoring 4 TDs in the two games. He has also continued some of the success that Locker had with his feet this year, with 2 rushing TDs of his own.
  • Eli Manning – Eli gets another shot at the Cowboys D that has been horrible vs. QBs this year. His week 1 performance of 4 TDs and 450 yards was by far his best game of the year. While I think it will be tough for him to repeat those numbers again, this game should be his 2nd best effort on the year.

Running Backs

  • Chris Ogbonnaya – He is starting to get the lion’s share of backfield duties for the Browns after being used primarily as a 3rd down back. He has a good matchup this week vs. the Steelers D that is in the bottom 3rd vs. the RB position this year. His value is better in full PPR sites as he has 4 receptions or more in 5 games this year in his limited role.
  • Andre Brown – He gets a dream matchup vs. a Dallas D that has been really bad against the run this year and that was absolutely putrid vs. the Saints a couple weeks ago when Sean Lee went down with an injury. Andre Brown is my favorite play at RB this week and you could also use him in cash games as well with his expected usage.

Wide Receivers

  • Cecil Shorts – Shorts has what appears to be a tough matchup vs. a Houston D that ranks near the top on the year for limiting production at the WR position, but they are without Kareem Jackson and have given up 6 TDs to WRs over the past three weeks. Shorts had two tough matchups the last two weeks and had limited production in those games, so his price has dropped. He complained to both his coach and QB about his usage during that stretch and squeaky wheeled WRs have been getting greased this year.

  • Anquan Boldin – Quan has had some tough games this year since the 49ers have been throwing up some trash WRs opposite him for most of the season, but they are starting to get healthier and that means defenses won’t be able to put the same focus on him. Washington has struggled this year vs. the WR position and the possible return of Micheal Crabtree means Boldin should see some much better looks going forward.
  • Kendall Wright – Wright gets a great matchup vs. a vulnerable Raiders’ secondary this week. He has 59 catches for 660 yards and 1 TD this year, but I think this may be a breakout game for him where he connects for over 100 years receiving and he finds the end zone.

Tight Ends

  • Garrett Graham – Graham had a huge game last week going for over 130 yards and TD on 7 receptions and he looks to keep the party going this week vs. a Jacksonville team that has been particularly bad vs. the TE position. Only Arizona has given up more points to TEs.
  • Vernon Davis – Davis has had some up and down games this year, but a friendly matchup vs. the Redskins this week has me thinking this will be a nice up week for Vernon. With some of the other passing options starting to take the focus off him as well I think he gets more one on one coverage that he will exploit.

Defenses

  • Baltimore – The Ravens get the Jets at home this week and look to continue the trend of defenses putting up nice point totals vs. them. The Jets have only three games this year in which they haven’t given up multiple turnovers.
  • Packers – Adrian Peterson is banged up and has a questionable tag heading into this weekend and the Vikings continue to roll out the inept Christian Ponder at QB. The Vikings have given up a defensive score in three of their last 4 games and have been pretty bad in road games this year in general.

About the Author

  • Nat Mitchell (Hatorade)

  • Hatorade began playing fantasy sports in 2001 and has been grinding in DFS since 2010. At times he’s known to have one of the best mustaches in the DFS industry and has recently won the 25k top prize in one of DraftKings’ 200K contests as well as qualified for the 2013 PFFC.

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