Daily Pitcher Breakdown: April 2nd
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson | CHC | PIT | 175.1 | 4.98 | 4.04 | 1.46 | 29.0% | 17.4% | 7.6% | 0.82 | 1.81 |
| Morton | PIT | CHC | 116 | 3.26 | 3.52 | 1.28 | 45.0% | 17.2% | 7.3% | 0.47 | 3.37 |
| Lackey | BOS | BAL | 189.1 | 3.52 | 3.56 | 1.16 | 51.7% | 20.7% | 5.1% | 1.24 | 1.34 |
| Jimenez | BAL | BOS | 182.2 | 3.30 | 3.74 | 1.33 | 46.9% | 25.0% | 10.3% | 0.79 | 1.21 |
| Wacha | STL | CIN | 64.2 | 2.78 | 3.32 | 1.11 | 55.6% | 25.0% | 7.3% | 0.70 | 1.13 |
| Cingrani | CIN | STL | 104.2 | 2.92 | 3.39 | 1.10 | 38.9% | 28.6% | 10.2% | 1.20 | 0.77 |
| Buehrle | TOR | TBR | 203.2 | 4.15 | 4.21 | 1.35 | 48.5% | 15.9% | 5.8% | 1.06 | 1.33 |
| Moore | TBR | TOR | 150.1 | 3.29 | 4.31 | 1.30 | 40.7% | 22.3% | 11.8% | 0.84 | 0.93 |
| Gonzalez | WAS | NYM | 195.2 | 3.36 | 3.76 | 1.26 | 62.5% | 23.4% | 9.3% | 0.78 | 1.32 |
| Colon | NYM | WAS | 190.1 | 2.65 | 4.17 | 1.17 | 63.3% | 15.2% | 3.8% | 0.66 | 1.09 |
| Lyles | COL | MIA | 141.2 | 5.59 | 4.47 | 1.52 | 32.0% | 14.5% | 7.6% | 1.08 | 1.60 |
| Alvarez | MIA | COL | 102.2 | 3.59 | 4.18 | 1.14 | 41.2% | 13.6% | 6.5% | 0.18 | 2.18 |
| Kendrick | PHI | TEX | 182 | 4.70 | 4.34 | 1.40 | 46.7% | 13.8% | 5.9% | 0.89 | 1.60 |
| Ross | TEX | PHI | 62.1 | 3.03 | 3.21 | 1.32 | 21.7% | 7.1% | 0.58 | 1.73 | |
| Kuroda | NYY | HOU | 201.1 | 3.31 | 3.79 | 1.16 | 50.0% | 18.2% | 5.2% | 0.89 | 1.49 |
| Cosart | HOU | NYY | 60 | 1.95 | 5.34 | 1.35 | 60.0% | 13.4% | 14.2% | 0.45 | 2.23 |
| Hudson | SFG | ARI | 131.1 | 3.97 | 3.75 | 1.19 | 42.9% | 17.8% | 6.7% | 0.69 | 2.10 |
| Cahill | ARI | SFG | 146.2 | 3.99 | 4.37 | 1.42 | 24.0% | 16.0% | 10.2% | 0.80 | 2.34 |
| Paxton | SEA | LAA | 24 | 1.50 | 3.24 | 0.92 | 75.0% | 22.3% | 7.5% | 0.75 | 2.44 |
| Santiago | LAA | SEA | 149 | 3.56 | 4.34 | 1.40 | 43.5% | 20.9% | 11.0% | 1.03 | 0.84 |
| Haren | LAD | SDP | 169.2 | 4.67 | 3.60 | 1.24 | 43.3% | 21.1% | 4.3% | 1.49 | 0.86 |
| Ross | SDP | LAD | 125 | 3.17 | 3.41 | 1.15 | 50.0% | 23.6% | 8.7% | 0.58 | 1.85 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
Gio Gonzalez, WAS (at NYM) – Gonzalez has pummeled the Mets throughout his career with a 2.57 ERA in 49 IP across eight starts. It’s his best ERA against an NL team that he has at least 45 IP against. Additionally, the Mets were the third-worst team in OPS v. LHP last year at 671 and their big offensive addition is a lefty (Curtis Granderson) who hasn’t exactly cut up southpaws. Plus, he’s a meager 2-for-16 against Gonzalez. He has major strikeout upside and he went 6+ IP in 69% of his starts last year.
Hiroki Kuroda, NYY (at HOU) – The Astros opener was a nice story as they rolled up six runs off of Sabathia in the first two innings to coast to a 6-2 win, but I don’t think it gives anyone delusions of them being a viable team just yet. They’re still at least a year (and probably two) away from fearsome. Kuroda mowed them down for seven scoreless with eight strikeouts last April and he’ll lean on that killer splitter to try and repeat the feat. He allowed a 422 OPS on the pitch last year while the Astros hit just 536 against all splitters, 20th in baseball.
Michael Wacha, STL (v. CIN) – I came into the season a bit down on Wacha when it came to fantasy value. I felt he was being overvalued with a spot among the top 20 SPs. He essentially has to be a stud to pay off on that price and I’m not sure he can do it for a full MLB season. That said, he does have an excellent fastball-changeup combo that was just insane last year. The key will be if he can cultivate the curveball into a viable third pitch. He dropped 10 scoreless innings on the Reds last year with 10 strikeouts, three walks, and just six hits allowed. They were hitless against his change in 11 PA with six strikeouts and he actually leaned on the curve more than he had against the rest of the league: 8.3% usage in those two appearances against Cincy compared to 4.5% against the rest of the league. I’ll be watching closely to see how the curve develops as the season progresses.
GOOD BUYS:
This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.
Dan Haren, LAD (at SD) – Haren isn’t a bad pitcher, despite what his 4.50 ERA over the last two years might lead you to believe. The problem has been health as a balky back has wreaked havoc on him throughout periods of 2012-2013. When healthy, he’s still quite useful. After returning from DL last year, he had a 3.29 ERA in 87.7 IP with 84 Ks and a 4.7 K/BB ratio. He’s currently healthy so we might as well get on board in case injury strikes again down the road. He doesn’t have a very good track record in Petco Park (4.23 ERA in 62 IP), but current Padres only have a 757 OPS which is just OK.
Charlie Morton, PIT (v. CHC) – He isn’t going to pile up strikeouts for you, but he is a solid arm facing one of the more inferior clubs in the league. He’s a groundball machine (63% last year) and he did show some strikeout prowess against the Cubs last year, albeit in a modest 18 IP sample over three starts. He had a 3.50 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 16 strikeouts (22% K rate) against them. Plus, he’s priced to buy at just about every outlet. Have a group of high-priced bats you want to use? Take a look at Morton as a means for saving money while getting a quality effort.
Bartolo Colon, NYM (vs. WAS) – He’ll probably still be doubted by many, but it’s impossible to argue with what he’s done the last two years. I get it, though. He’s 100 years old, he’s rotund, and he doesn’t strike anyone out, but he doesn’t walk anyone and he is remarkably efficient which helps him go deep (he went fewer than 5 IP in just 3-of-30 starts) into games. This is basically a new lineup for him as he’s faced just three current Nats in his career and none of them more than five times.
Tyson Ross, SD (v. LAD) – Ross was a chic sleeper in the fantasy drafts this year and I was one of those near the front of the bandwagon. He had an excellent second half with a 2.93 ERA in 80 IP thanks to some clean-up of his mechanics yielding just an obscene slider to go with his mid-90s heat. There were 28 pitchers who ended more than 200 PA with a slider and his was second with a 370 OPS in baseball (Masterson’s 355 led the league). The Dodgers beat that season mark with a 523 OPS against Ross’ slider, but that’s still not exactly good, plus they paired it with a 44% strikeout rate in 32 PA. It’s worth noting that they did trounce his fastball to the tune of a 1029 OPS in 31 PA last season. I’m still relatively bullish on him at home in this start.
John Lackey, BOS (at BAL) – Lackey’s strong 2013 didn’t get much love at the draft table this offseason, but I liked what I saw from the veteran. Both of his breaking pitches were sharp not to mention a well-above average fastball (727 OPS compared to 775 league average). He had one dud against Baltimore (6.3 IP/5 ER), but went 7+ and allowed three or fewer runs in each of the other three starts including a two-hitter with eight strikeouts last September.
Hector Santiago, LAA (v. SEA) – While it didn’t stop them on Tuesday night against C.J. Wilson and they do have some new guys on offense, the Mariners were still baseball’s worst team against lefties last year with a 657 OPS. I’m a fan of Santiago and excited to see what he can do in a friendlier ballpark (3.12 road ERA in 80.7 IP last year). I might be a touch worried about a win if he turns it over to the bullpen, though, as they’ve allowed nine runs in the two games so far.
USE CAUTION:
Tony Cingrani, CIN (at STL) – The one-pitch wonder (82% usage of his fastball) was unquestionably excellent last year, but I worry about how well he can hold up leaning so heavily on a single pitch (albeit a good one). The strong Cardinals offense wasn’t fooled by him, either, getting to him for a 4.35 ERA in 10.3 IP across two starts. He still had 14 Ks, but also eight walks en route to a 1.55 WHIP. Proceed with caution for this matchup.
James Paxton, SEA (at LAA) – It’s been a mere 41 IP and 17 of them were in Spring Training, but we’ve seen a different Paxton lately. After being a high strikeout, but also high walk guy in the minors, Paxton has been a more control-oriented pitcher with the Mariners, posting a 33-to-10 K/BB ratio. He still had a useful 22% strikeout rate in his 24-inning cup of coffee with the Mariners last year. This is a former top prospect looking to make good on his big pedigree. I don’t love this matchup so I’m exercising some caution, but I have a feeling you’ll see a full recommendation on Paxton regularly this year.
Matt Moore, TB (v. TOR) – Can he get the ball over the plate with any measure of regularity? That will be the question with Moore all year. Until we really see some consistent control. I don’t know that you can feel any measure of confidence.
Tim Hudson, SF (at ARI) – The 38-year old is coming off of an ugly ankle injury that cut his season short in 2013. I’d really like to see something from him before diving in. I think there are enough options available to comfortably pass. Meanwhile, the D’Backs popped him in a pair of ugly outings last year as he allowed 9 ER in just 10.7 IP.
Henderson Alvarez, MIA (v. COL) – Don’t let the no-hitter of a Tigers team that had quit for the regular season fool you, Alvarez isn’t some stud. Despite decent stuff, he has an awful strikeout rate which is really what keeps me from buying in. He relies on the fastball 73% of the time which keeps that strikeout rate down. If he mixed in more sliders (he has a 26% K rate with it), we might see more missed bats.
NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT, HERE’S WHY:
Trevor Cahill, ARI (v. SF) – Cahill has kind of stagnated a bit of late. And I’m not just referring to the Australia game, but rather his tepid 2013. The injury may have been somewhat to blame (he had a 2.70 ERA in 50 IP after returning), but I’m just skeptical right now. He also has a 5.27 ERA in seven starts against them the last two years.
Mark Buehrle, TOR (at TB) – Buehrle is going to have some great outings this year, I’m sure of it. But I don’t know when they will come and the downside is substantial with him. He doesn’t have a strong strikeout rate that can mitigate that downside, either. The Rays also dropped a 5.76 ERA on him last year.
Ubaldo Jimenez, BAL (v. BOS) – The sample size isn’t huge, but the Red Sox absolutely own Jimenez. He has an 11.72 ERA in 17.7 IP across four starts. He has outings of six, seven, and seven earned runs against the Sox with his only worthwhile outing being a 6 IP/3 ER win back in 2012. Current Red Sox have a 1091 OPS against Jimenez in 98 PA.
Edwin Jackson, CHC (at PIT) – He’s been too inconsistent – with downside being truly horrendous – to trust at all in a single game.
Robbie Ross, TEX (v. PHI) – We saw how their first RP-to-SP performed as Tanner Scheppers was pummeled on Opening Day. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to put some of that on nerves for Scheppers. Not just Opening Day, but also his first MLB start. Ross doesn’t have Opening Day weight on him, but it is his first MLB start and I just don’t see any reason to blindly invest.
Jarred Cosart, HOU (v. NYY) – Cosart could play himself into a spot where I’d be comfortable recommending him, but last year’s 1.95 ERA was smoke-and-mirrors. He had an impossibly bad 0.94 K/BB ratio as well as a 1.35 WHIP. As far as I’m concerned, he’s still unproven.
Jordan Lyles, COL (at MIA) – I’m not sure anyone facing the Marlins has landed this low on the list (Anderson was technically last yesterday, but it was a tier above in the Use Caution), but I see absolutely no reason to mess with Lyles even against a modest offense. He’s posted an ERA north of 5.00 in each of his first three seasons, he doesn’t miss bats, and he allows too many homers.
Kyle Kendrick, PHI (at TEX) – I wasn’t surprised to see A.J. Burnett put up a quality outing (6 IP/1 ER), but I just couldn’t advocate him in Texas given that he wouldn’t be cheap and that lineup is so sick. I would be floored if Kendrick went 6 IP/1 ER and you couldn’t pay me to use him.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson | 0.366 | 6.00 | 0.325 | 4.29 | 0.241 | 0.693 | 0.322 | 3.79 | 0.276 | 94.58 | 60.9% |
| Morton | 0.382 | 5.28 | 0.249 | 1.99 | 0.240 | 0.686 | 0.306 | 3.60 | 0.256 | 85.75 | 63.2% |
| Lackey | 0.290 | 3.04 | 0.331 | 4.13 | 0.259 | 0.748 | 0.281 | 3.86 | 0.245 | 99.07 | 66.6% |
| Jimenez | 0.293 | 3.31 | 0.318 | 3.39 | 0.283 | 0.813 | 0.304 | 3.43 | 0.235 | 98.84 | 62.0% |
| Wacha | 0.227 | 1.67 | 0.308 | 3.90 | 0.252 | 0.717 | 0.275 | 2.92 | 0.216 | 68.93 | 65.1% |
| Cingrani | 0.238 | 3.14 | 0.307 | 2.92 | 0.238 | 0.667 | 0.241 | 3.78 | 0.192 | 78.96 | 61.8% |
| Buehrle | 0.323 | 4.47 | 0.335 | 4.12 | 0.268 | 0.738 | 0.305 | 4.10 | 0.273 | 99.97 | 63.2% |
| Moore | 0.278 | 2.31 | 0.305 | 3.73 | 0.240 | 0.674 | 0.259 | 3.95 | 0.212 | 97.07 | 60.4% |
| Gonzalez | 0.252 | 3.26 | 0.312 | 3.43 | 0.240 | 0.669 | 0.286 | 3.41 | 0.228 | 103.59 | 62.5% |
| Colon | 0.297 | 2.86 | 0.281 | 2.45 | 0.255 | 0.721 | 0.294 | 3.23 | 0.261 | 92.57 | 68.7% |
| Lyles | 0.333 | 5.75 | 0.375 | 5.48 | 0.230 | 0.608 | 0.314 | 4.57 | 0.284 | 90.56 | 60.7% |
| Alvarez | 0.330 | 4.15 | 0.239 | 3.11 | 0.270 | 0.750 | 0.271 | 3.18 | 0.234 | 85.35 | 65.5% |
| Kendrick | 0.301 | 3.96 | 0.357 | 5.42 | 0.261 | 0.724 | 0.306 | 4.01 | 0.277 | 95.80 | 64.6% |
| Ross | 0.419 | 4.35 | 0.243 | 2.38 | 0.239 | 0.673 | 0.326 | 3.18 | 0.259 | 15.43 | 67.6% |
| Kuroda | 0.325 | 3.82 | 0.266 | 2.74 | 0.235 | 0.666 | 0.282 | 3.56 | 0.246 | 100.06 | 63.1% |
| Cosart | 0.236 | 0.73 | 0.372 | 4.09 | 0.241 | 0.680 | 0.246 | 4.35 | 0.218 | 102.40 | 57.0% |
| Hudson | 0.300 | 4.71 | 0.292 | 3.27 | 0.259 | 0.719 | 0.281 | 3.46 | 0.242 | 95.52 | 64.9% |
| Cahill | 0.342 | 3.86 | 0.319 | 4.16 | 0.262 | 0.703 | 0.289 | 4.26 | 0.253 | 91.27 | 59.0% |
| Paxton | 0.347 | 2.45 | 0.221 | 1.33 | 0.258 | 0.750 | 0.203 | 3.26 | 0.172 | 96.00 | 63.8% |
| Santiago | 0.316 | 3.07 | 0.339 | 3.83 | 0.229 | 0.656 | 0.289 | 4.44 | 0.241 | 79.32 | 61.5% |
| Haren | 0.314 | 5.06 | 0.345 | 4.35 | 0.241 | 0.663 | 0.302 | 4.09 | 0.264 | 89.61 | 65.4% |
| Ross | 0.323 | 4.24 | 0.249 | 2.20 | 0.268 | 0.724 | 0.282 | 3.20 | 0.221 | 56.60 | 62.2% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window