Sign In $

Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 14th

by PSporer Last Updated 2014-08-14 16:59:38

The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher TM OPP IP ERA SIERA WHIP GEM% K% BB% HR/9 G/F
Liriano PIT DET 101.1 3.91 3.61 1.34 12.5% 25.2% 11.2% 0.89 1.86
Scherzer DET PIT 153 3.24 3.07 1.20 60.0% 27.3% 7.0% 0.82 0.88
Samardzija OAK KCR 151.2 2.91 3.32 1.09 60.0% 21.7% 5.9% 0.77 1.67
Shields KCR OAK 157.1 3.43 3.64 1.25 42.9% 19.2% 5.0% 1.03 1.31
Fiers MIL CHC
Jackson CHC MIL 125.2 5.66 4.06 1.57 15.0% 20.5% 9.6% 1.07 1.24
Strasburg WAS NYM 151.1 3.39 2.66 1.21 52.4% 28.2% 5.3% 0.83 1.48
Gee NYM WAS 82 3.73 4.14 1.12 50.0% 17.7% 7.2% 1.21 1.15
Anderson ARI MIA 73.1 3.19 3.91 1.30 40.0% 20.5% 8.1% 1.35 1.15
Alvarez MIA ARI 137.2 2.48 3.71 1.22 50.0% 14.7% 4.8% 0.52 2.29
Feldman HOU BOS 117.2 4.13 4.74 1.39 47.1% 12.5% 7.2% 0.84 1.28
Webster BOS HOU
Odorizzi TBR TEX 116.2 4.09 3.51 1.35 36.8% 25.8% 8.9% 0.93 0.72
Ross TEX TBR 61 5.61 4.08 1.66 22.2% 13.4% 6.7% 1.03 2.19
Stults SDP STL 116.2 4.94 4.43 1.42 26.3% 14.4% 6.2% 1.54 1.17
Lackey STL SDP 144.1 3.55 3.55 1.22 57.9% 20.0% 5.3% 1.00 1.40
Simon CIN COL 138 3.07 4.15 1.12 63.2% 15.0% 6.2% 1.11 1.59
De La Rosa COL CIN 128.2 4.27 4.08 1.27 40.0% 18.2% 8.8% 0.98 1.66

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.

GOLD BUYS:

These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.

Max Scherzer DET (v. PIT) – Scherzer has been nearly identical to last year. Just imagine if he didn’t have that 10 ER shellacking spoiling the bunch a little bit. Since that start he’s allowed more than 2 ER just once en route to 2.01 ERA in 62.7 IP with 71 Ks and a 4.7 K:BB ratio.

jake-odorizzi-300x200

Jake Odorizzi TB (at TEX) – Odorizzi has been fantastic after a rough start to the 2014 season. He had a 6.83 ERA in his first six starts, but he’s dropped a 3.03 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 113 Ks and a 3.7 K:BB ratio in 95 IP. He a potent four-pitch arsenal, all of which are allowed .650 OPS totals or lower in this three month stretch. The Rangers have mustered four runs in three games so far this series. The fear of starting a non-ace in Arlington just isn’t there this year.

John Lackey STL (v. SD) – He was hoping to ditch Baltimore when he left for St. Louis, but interleague gave the O’s one more crack at him and they jumped the ERA against him this year from 7.00 to 9.14 with a 5 IP/9 ER pounding. They’ve got his number. Perhaps they’re in his head a bit as a club because of his anger over Nelson Cruz and his PED suspension. At any rate, a date with San Diego is the perfect opportunity to get back on track.

SILVER BUYS:

On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.

Jeff Samardzija OAK (at KC) – Samardzija’s strikeouts have been a bit light with the A’s (6.3 K9) and that isn’t likely to turn around with a meeting against the Royals – their 15.5% K rate is baseball’s best. That bumps him down a tier, but I’m still plenty interested in him on Thursday. His splitter has been virtually unhittable with Oakland – .033 AVG, .176 OPS in 35 PA with 11 Ks and just one walk.

stephen-strasburg-300x200

Stephen Strasburg WAS (at NYM) – I have to bump Strasburg down a tier, too. Love the strikeout rate. Love the walk rate. His command within the zone has been off in spurts this year, manifesting itself in a 9.0 H9 and 1.0 HR9, both career-highs by a lot. We saw it all his last time out (5 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 9 Ks) and this downside has reared its ugly head far too often for someone like Strasburg. The strikeouts do save some of that downside, but it’s hard to sidestep four homers and win a game or post a reasonable DFS score.

James Shields KC (v. OAK) – Shields is a volatile ace. He almost always ends up with those golden numbers by season’s end (except 2010), but the path this year hasn’t exactly been straight. He can suffer from that same thing we’ve seen with Strasburg where he’s almost in the zone too often because he’s not commanding it well enough to live in there. Since his last bout of issues, he’s reeled off a 1.63 ERA in seven starts with 40 Ks and a 5.0 K:BB ratio in 49.7 IP.

VALUE PLAYS:

These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.

Chase Anderson ARI (at MIA) – I’m probably turning into a bit of a broken record, but I like what Anderson’s been doing outside of the continued home run issues. Even with a 2.97 ERA and 55 Ks in 57.7 IP over his last 10 starts, I still worry about the eight homers (1.3 HR/9). What happens if five of those aren’t solo shots? Guys with home run issues are susceptible to volatility. And yet despite throwing up a bit of a caution flag, I’m obviously still interested in him.

Mike Fiers MIL (at CHC) – I’m intrigued Mr. Fiers. Fiers came up and took the league by storm in 2012 and even had the numbers to back it up. However, he was more deception than stuff and it crumbled as he lost his command and saw his hit and home run rates soar. The matchup is a big part of this recommendation as we wait to see how legit Fiers is this time around.

Scott Feldman HOU (at BOS) – When Feldman gets hot, he puts up huge numbers for substantial stretches. He opened the season with a 1.93 ERA through his first five starts before falling off for a bit. He rebounded for another solid stretch of mid-3.00s ERA work before again hitting the skids leading up to his most recent stretch that has seen him allow 2.01 ERA in 22.3 IP over three starts, albeit with his patented unimpressive strikeout and walk rates. He has just nine strikeouts and six walks in this span. And yet, he’s sooo cheap and the Red Sox offense is sooo anemic that I’m willing to gamble on him staying hot even if it comes sans-strikeouts.

STAYAWAYS:

These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher wOBA vs L ERA vs L wOBA vs R ERA vs R AVG OPS BABIP FIP AVG-A Pit/G Strk%
Hernandez 0.299 2.68 0.322 4.81 0.241 0.663 0.256 4.62 0.232 85.74 14.2%
Harang 0.338 2.91 0.296 3.84 0.265 0.737 0.310 3.57 0.26 104.04 18.1%
Liriano 0.349 4.64 0.297 3.71 0.284 0.792 0.291 3.79 0.226 91.11 25.2%
Scherzer 0.316 3.83 0.279 2.45 0.260 0.740 0.316 3.01 0.24 108.83 27.3%
Samardzija 0.296 2.17 0.284 3.56 0.263 0.686 0.277 3.39 0.229 100.22 21.7%
Shields 0.333 3.33 0.316 3.54 0.254 0.732 0.306 3.81 0.263 107.63 19.2%
Fiers 0.232 0.666
Jackson 0.396 6.09 0.343 5.32 0.259 0.730 0.349 4.21 0.289 95.61 20.5%
Strasburg 0.281 2.62 0.320 3.98 0.235 0.670 0.341 2.74 0.254 99.38 28.2%
Gee 0.325 5.11 0.277 2.60 0.241 0.687 0.241 4.43 0.221 95.00 17.7%
Anderson 0.273 2.70 0.381 3.60 0.246 0.690 0.286 4.47 0.25 93.00 20.5%
Alvarez 0.281 2.18 0.324 2.88 0.253 0.695 0.301 3.39 0.265 86.73 14.7%
Feldman 0.327 2.83 0.347 5.49 0.243 0.685 0.298 4.46 0.274 99.25 12.5%
Webster 0.228 0.666
Odorizzi 0.322 4.31 0.298 3.81 0.252 0.680 0.317 3.46 0.245 97.41 25.8%
Ross 0.348 6.75 0.394 4.93 0.266 0.747 0.354 4.66 0.319 56.50 13.4%
Stults 0.332 6.48 0.359 4.32 0.253 0.721 0.295 5.00 0.279 87.14 14.4%
Lackey 0.306 3.57 0.311 3.53 0.226 0.635 0.296 3.58 0.254 102.32 20.0%
Simon 0.317 3.88 0.272 2.24 0.279 0.768 0.246 4.49 0.23 93.41 15.0%
De La Rosa 0.210 2.45 0.352 4.89 0.246 0.690 0.269 4.32 0.236 95.57 18.2%

Starting Pitcher Salaries

Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.

daily%20pitcher%20chart%202

NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window

About the Author

PSporer
PSporer

Paul has been writing about baseball for 15 years at various internet outlets and he’s been an avid fantasy baseballer for 21 of his 33 years on this planet, joining his first league at 12 years old which is still running today. He writes a comprehensive starting pitcher guide each year and it’s now available thespguide.com. When’s he’s not watching baseball, he is sleeping, because why would anyone waste time being awake if they weren’t going to watch baseball? He writes three times a week and has his own podcast at Fangraphs with co-hosts Eno Sarris & Jason Collette, contributes to Rotowire, and he has been a guest co-host with Matthew Berry on ESPN’s Fantasy Focus podcast.