Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 20th, 2013
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Performance and Talent Statistics: August 20th, 2013
| PLAYER | PERFORMANCE | TALENT | |||||||||
| PITCHER | TM | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cobb | TBR | 88.2 | 2.94 | 3.16 | 1.15 | 42.9% | 22.6% | 6.9% | 1.02 | 2.61 | |
| Gonzalez | BAL | 129.0 | 3.84 | 4.29 | 1.25 | 42.9% | 17.7% | 7.3% | 1.26 | 0.94 | |
| Buehrle | TOR | 157.1 | 4.29 | 4.29 | 1.34 | 44.0% | 15.6% | 6.1% | 1.09 | 1.27 | |
| Hughes | NYY | 125.0 | 4.97 | 4.19 | 1.38 | 39.1% | 19.4% | 6.5% | 1.66 | 0.61 | |
| Pelfrey | MIN | 114.2 | 5.26 | 4.78 | 1.56 | 13.6% | 13.6% | 7.7% | 0.86 | 1.18 | |
| Porcello | DET | 131.0 | 4.33 | 3.46 | 1.30 | 31.8% | 17.9% | 5.1% | 0.82 | 2.30 | |
| De La Rosa | COL | 142.1 | 3.22 | 4.33 | 1.36 | 52.0% | 16.4% | 8.4% | 0.51 | 1.70 | |
| Cloyd | PHI | 34.1 | 3.41 | 5.40 | 1.51 | 66.7% | 12.1% | 10.1% | 0.52 | 0.92 | |
| Corbin | ARI | 163.1 | 2.48 | 3.57 | 1.04 | 75.0% | 21.4% | 6.4% | 0.61 | 1.53 | |
| Cingrani | CIN | 94.0 | 2.78 | 3.26 | 1.07 | 46.7% | 29.4% | 10.1% | 1.05 | 0.81 | |
| Capuano | LAD | 85.0 | 4.66 | 3.96 | 1.45 | 37.5% | 17.5% | 5.4% | 1.06 | 1.29 | |
| Turner | MIA | 87.1 | 2.89 | 4.65 | 1.27 | 50.0% | 16.4% | 9.9% | 0.62 | 1.30 | |
| Beachy | ATL | 24.0 | 4.50 | 3.70 | 1.08 | 50.0% | 19.8% | 4.2% | 1.50 | 0.97 | |
| Wheeler | NYM | 63.0 | 3.43 | 4.30 | 1.38 | 45.5% | 20.9% | 10.6% | 1.29 | 1.01 | |
| Cosart | HOU | 39.0 | 1.15 | 4.95 | 1.18 | 83.3% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 0.00 | 2.62 | |
| Blackley | TEX | 35.0 | 4.89 | 4.49 | 1.43 | First Start | 19.1% | 13.2% | 2.57 | 1.08 | |
| Haren | WAS | 126.0 | 4.79 | 3.70 | 1.25 | 40.9% | 20.6% | 4.3% | 1.57 | 0.76 | |
| Rusin | CHC | 32.1 | 3.06 | 4.45 | 1.18 | 50.0% | 15.9% | 7.6% | 0.84 | 1.23 | |
| Lynn | STL | 155.0 | 3.89 | 3.76 | 1.25 | 52.0% | 23.3% | 9.0% | 0.52 | 1.20 | |
| Lohse | MIL | 153.1 | 3.17 | 4.17 | 1.15 | 44.0% | 16.3% | 4.8% | 1.23 | 1.04 | |
| Danks | CWS | 103.0 | 4.54 | 4.06 | 1.18 | 25.0% | 17.1% | 4.7% | 1.92 | 1.04 | |
| Santana | KCR | 161.0 | 3.19 | 3.74 | 1.14 | 58.3% | 19.1% | 5.8% | 1.01 | 1.51 | |
| Salazar | CLE | 17.2 | 4.08 | 2.65 | 0.96 | 33.3% | 31.9% | 7.3% | 2.04 | 1.13 | |
| Wilson | LAA | 159.0 | 3.40 | 3.90 | 1.37 | 48.0% | 21.1% | 8.7% | 0.57 | 1.43 | |
| Saunders | SEA | 144.1 | 4.86 | 4.59 | 1.55 | 48.0% | 12.9% | 7.3% | 1.18 | 1.66 | |
| Gray | OAK | 18.0 | 1.00 | 2.82 | 0.83 | 100.0% | 28.6% | 7.1% | 0.50 | 1.50 | |
| Burnett | PIT | 138.2 | 3.18 | 3.16 | 1.25 | 45.5% | 26.0% | 8.8% | 0.52 | 2.45 | |
| Ross | SDP | 79.0 | 2.62 | 3.70 | 1.16 | 62.5% | 22.0% | 9.8% | 0.57 | 1.69 | |
| Peavy | BOS | 98.0 | 4.41 | 3.66 | 1.15 | 56.3% | 21.9% | 5.0% | 1.56 | 0.72 | |
| Vogelsong | SFG | 56.0 | 6.75 | 4.46 | 1.75 | 9.1% | 17.8% | 9.1% | 1.93 | 1.08 | |
STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
Brandon Beachy, ATL (at NYM) – Beachy has been getting better each start with the results showing in his last two as he allowed just two runs in 14 IP against Miami and Philly. Neither is a stalwart offensively, but he gets yet another outing against divisional foe that packs little more than a whimper at the dish in the New York Mets. Since losing David Wright, they’ve put up a pathetic .254 wOBA at home and just .300 overall against righties. They are scoring just 3.5 R/G this month after a hefty 4.7 in July.
Ervin Santana, KC (v. CWS) – Santana has impressed all year and while he has mixed in a few duds, his ERA hasn’t topped 3.37 since his season debut when he went 6 IP/4 ER against these White Sox. He has a 3.7 IP/6 ER outing mixed into his last six, but it was against Boston and he’s allowed just 5 ER in the other five outings combined. The Sox have been about league average in wOBA v. righties this month, but it’s still yielding just 3.8 R/G in their 18 games.
Dan Haren, WAS (at CHC) – Did Haren and Jordan Zimmermann switch bodies or something? A healthy Haren has looked a lot like Zimm of late, or better yet, the Vintage Haren that we’d gotten used to before last year. He’s cut his ERA from 6.00 to 4.79 in his last seven starts (and one relief appearance) posting a 2.25 ERA in 44 IP with a 4.4 K/BB ratio. He had a 5 IP/5 ER outing against Pittsburgh, but he’s allowed just 6 ER in the other seven outings combined as his usual pinpoint command has returned yielding just three homers (two in that PIT outing). Even with the shellacking of Zimm yesterday the Cubs still only have a .296 wOBA against righties this month.
A.J. Burnett, PIT (at SD) / Tyson Ross, SD (v. PIT) – A trip to SD is exactly what Burnett needs! After back-to-back disasters in Colorado and St. Louis, he’s looking for a light-hitting offense to feast on and this is it. The Padres have the 25th-ranked wOBA v. righties this month at .295. We should see another pitcher’s duel like the one between Liriano and Cashner yesterday (3-1 win for Liriano) that saw just 11 combined hits and 17 Padre strikeouts.
Ross rejoined the rotation on July 23rd and has ripped off five straight starts of 2 or fewer ER, three of which have come on the road so he’s not just relying on Petco. He’s fanned at least six in each of the outings, too. We’re finally seeing why the former Oakland prospect was taken in the second round and now his next hurdle will just be to stay healthy.
Jake Peavy, BOS (at SF) – The only team worse than San Fran at home against righties this month is the Cleveland Indians. The Giants have a .250 wOBA while the Indians have managed just a .244. Peavy has been great in two of his three outings as a Red Sock, but the middle one against KC (5 IP/6 ER) has helped push his composite ERA to 5.00 in 18 IP. I love him here tonight.
Patrick Corbin, ARI (at CIN) – Corbin’s allowed more than 4 ER just once all year and more than 3 ER a whopping four times. In short, he’s been tremendous. Meanwhile the strength of the Reds offense is all left-handed (Choo, Votto, and Bruce) which makes them susceptible to failure against southpaws. They have a 27th-ranked .237 wOBA on the month against them and they are slightly below league average on the season.
Rick Porcello, DET (v. MIN) – The last time Porcello faced the Twins at home he went 5 IP/5 ER pushing his ERA to 6.28 for the season. Something appears to have clicked in the four days between that and his next start as it spurred a run of 14 starts during which he’s posted a 3.38 ERA in 88 IP, including a 7 IP/0 ER in Minnesota on June 14th. The Twins have shown some solid power lately generating most of their runs via the home run, but thankfully that’s a strength for Porcello as he’s great at keeping the ball down (0.8 HR/9). Even with the power surge, the Twins have a just below league average .308 wOBA v. righties this month.
Chris Capuano, LAD (at MIA) – Capuano broke his streak of nine straight starts where he’d given up either 0 or 5 ER with a 5.3 IP/4 ER outing against the Mets last time out. I expect an outing similar to Ryu’s 7.3 IP/3 ER bid from last night, though Cap has a better shot at pulling the win because he doesn’t have to square off against Jose Fernandez.
GOOD BUYS:
This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.
Jorge de la Rosa, COL (at PHI) – Save a 5 IP/5 ER effort in Atlanta, DLR has been excellent lately with a 2.89 ERA in his last 11 and 2.95 in his last 19 since the beginning of May. He has surprisingly been better at home (2.85 ERA), but his 3.84 on the road is plenty acceptable. The Phillies has an abysmal .179 wOBA against lefties this month, an MLB-worst. They are the 25th-worst against them for the season. His price is pretty great at some outlets, too.
Tony Cingrani, CIN (v. ARI) – If you haven’t watched a Cingrani start this year, I implore you to do so. Then you can marvel at the fact that he is so damn successful with pretty much one pitch. He continues to post quality start-after-quality start and rack up tons of strikeouts despite using his fastball over 80% of the time. The D’Backs are about average against lefties for the season and the month so it’s not a particularly tough matchup for him, either.
Zack Wheeler, NYM (v. ATL) – This will be Wheeler’s third go at the Braves and he’s held his own the first two times going 6 IP/0 ER (but with 5 BB) and 6 IP/3 ER most recently on July 25th. We’re watching the maturating of Wheeler before our eyes as he really seems to evolve a bit each start. I don’t love him against a tough Braves lineup because there are so many useful options available today, but he’s a better-than-average choice.
Jacob Turner, MIA (v. LAD) – He’s no Fernandez, but Turner has been excellent this year and particularly sharp at home (2.34 ERA) so I still like him as a secondary option even against a tough Dodgers offense. His skills are actually markedly better at home, too, with a 19% K rate (15% on road) and 2.6 K/BB ratio at home (1.2 on road).
Tyler Cloyd, PHI (v. COL) – Honestly, I’m surprised the Phillies haven’t used him more as he’s posted a 3.41 ERA in six starts with five greats one (only four are gems as he went 5 IP in his most recent). The Rockies have a horrid .286 wOBA against righties this month (28th-best) and it’s only .278 on the road. Very sneaky option here.
Lance Lynn, STL (at MIL) – This is more about the Brewers’ ineptitude than the backing of Lynn. Lynn’s been kinda blah this month with a 4.05 ERA propped up by an 8 IP/2 ER outing in Cincy, otherwise he’s allowed 7 ER in 12 IP over his other two starts. He can still miss plenty of bats and the Brewers have a .284 wOBA v. righties this month that tops only the Indians.
USE CAUTION:
Kyle Lohse, MIL (v. STL) – I’ve been really impressed with Lohse’s season to be honest, but I’m pretty cautious with any righty against the Cards. They’ve been the NL’s best against them all year and the MLB’s best against them this month.
Alex Cobb, TB (at BAL) / Miguel Gonzalez, BAL (v. TB) – Another matchup of two quality arms after Price/Tillman last night and I think we could see a similar 4-3 type game where neither guy is elite and you really have no idea who is going to be in line for a win. I’d lean Cobb if I had to pick one, but with a full slate of action, I don’t see the upside in either.
Chris Rusin, CHC (v. WAS) – Are the Nats changing their lefty-hitting ways? They are still dead-last for the season at .279 wOBA, but they are eighth this month with a .338 mark. It could just be a small sample, though. Rusin been pretty strong in four of his six starts, but the skills aren’t terribly impressive with a modest 2.1 K/BB ratio in 32.3 IP of work. He’s an OK secondary option, but I wouldn’t go crazy here.
Sonny Gray, OAK (v. SEA) – Let’s dial down the excitement a bit on Gray for a second. He has an OK outing against Toronto in which he allowed four runs, but only two earned in six innings and then he pasted the Astros. He was actually a favorite prospect of mine coming into the season, but I don’t think he’s a slam-dunk must-use just yet. Particularly not against the sweet-swinging Mainers (well, when they aren’t facing the super-awesome Jarrod Parker!). I would definitely limit Gray to being a secondary option today as I wouldn’t want him for my one and only starter.
C.J. Wilson, LAA (v. CLE) – The Indians are particularly strong v. lefties for the season and while he did net a win two starts ago, Wilson still allowed 11 base runners in just 5.3 IP against them while in Cleveland. Four of his last five have been on the road where he is much worse so he is no doubt excited to be back home where his ERA is 2.35 in 76.7 IP.
Mark Buehrle, TOR (at NYY) – The one thing that sinks Buehrle when he has poor outings is the home run ball which happens to be the exact thing that this stadium exacerbates. In fairness, he has done a great job of limiting them since about mid-May. He allowed 11 in his first seven starts, but then just eight in his last 18. He doesn’t do much striking out of batters, though, so if he doesn’t go deep into a game and pull the win, his scores are pretty modest. I’m just not feeling it here.
John Danks, CWS (at KC) – I want to like him because I see the 3.7 K/BB ratio, but it’s been all about control and not command as he’s allowing an insane 1.9 HR/9. It’s one thing that pepper the zone and avoid walks, but if you can’t mark your spot within the zone, you’re likely to give up home runs and other power hits which is going to lead to disaster. I’m still going to monitor Danks because I think he can become a worthy play if he irons out the command, but for now, he’s someone to be very careful with, even against a modest offense like KC.
Danny Salazar, CLE (at LAA) – HE WAS SLATED FOR MONDAY, BUT THEN PUSHED TO TUESDAY… Regardless of how he pitches, you can almost guarantee that Salazar will get some strikeouts which is always good because they can help mitigate a mediocre outing and take the sting out of a horrible one, too. The Angels are no pushover with an above league average wOBA against righties for both the month and season so those Ks will likely come in handy today as Salazar definitely has his work cut out for him.
Jarred Cosart, HOU (at TEX) – Ahh, I just don’t trust these skills. His 1:1 K/BB ratio is sooooo bad. It’s just impossibly bad and it cannot sustain a 1.15 ERA. So something has to give somewhere. For me, I’m staying away until either the skills improve or the ERA balances out a bit.
NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT, HERE’S WHY:
Ryan Vogelsong, SF (v. BOS) – After a nice DL return against Baltimore, he was wobbly against the Nats with a 3.7 IP/3 ER outing so let’s just play it safe and avoid him against a great Boston offense.
Phil Hughes, NYY (v. TOR) – He’s just good home and facing a home run-hitting team there makes him even scarier.
Joe Saunders, SEA (at OAK) – He’s been awful in five of his last six and though he strong in five of previous six before that, I find him difficult to trust because there is no rhyme or reason to his success and failures except for home/road, though his home numbers are tumbling with each passing start as he now has a 3.94 ERA in Safeco (5.60 on the road).
Travis Blackley, TEX (v. HOU) – It’s his first start of the season so the Rangers might not be inclined to give him more than five and if he struggles at all, he might not even make it that long. It’s an appealing
YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:
Couldn’t pay me to use these guys.
Mike Pelfrey, MIN (at DET)
ADVANCED METRICS: August 20th, 2013
| VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS | OPP vs L/R | OTHER ADVANCED STATS | |||||||||||
| PITCHER | wOBA L | ERA L | wOBA R | ERA R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% | ||
| Cobb | 0.279 | 3.38 | 0.310 | 2.25 | 0.271 | 0.774 | 0.275 | 3.57 | 0.229 | 100.86 | 65.0% | ||
| Gonzalez | 0.317 | 3.46 | 0.322 | 4.14 | 0.251 | 0.733 | 0.273 | 4.36 | 0.247 | 97.10 | 64.4% | ||
| Buehrle | 0.290 | 4.36 | 0.346 | 4.34 | 0.250 | 0.680 | 0.299 | 4.18 | 0.270 | 101.96 | 63.1% | ||
| Hughes | 0.370 | 4.92 | 0.334 | 5.11 | 0.254 | 0.749 | 0.309 | 4.71 | 0.276 | 94.30 | 66.6% | ||
| Pelfrey | 0.352 | 4.81 | 0.363 | 5.90 | 0.284 | 0.786 | 0.334 | 4.21 | 0.300 | 93.68 | 60.8% | ||
| Porcello | 0.355 | 5.03 | 0.267 | 3.66 | 0.239 | 0.698 | 0.319 | 3.42 | 0.275 | 91.83 | 64.0% | ||
| De La Rosa | 0.251 | 1.73 | 0.333 | 3.65 | 0.234 | 0.681 | 0.309 | 3.51 | 0.264 | 93.72 | 61.9% | ||
| Cloyd | 0.374 | 2.81 | 0.324 | 3.93 | 0.267 | 0.754 | 0.307 | 4.06 | 0.276 | 97.00 | 61.0% | ||
| Corbin | 0.228 | 2.41 | 0.286 | 2.52 | 0.244 | 0.709 | 0.258 | 3.12 | 0.212 | 98.50 | 65.4% | ||
| Cingrani | 0.250 | 3.16 | 0.290 | 2.69 | 0.265 | 0.724 | 0.241 | 3.48 | 0.186 | 82.30 | 62.1% | ||
| Capuano | 0.297 | 3.91 | 0.381 | 4.96 | 0.224 | 0.632 | 0.337 | 3.75 | 0.293 | 76.00 | 63.2% | ||
| Turner | 0.308 | 3.43 | 0.301 | 2.56 | 0.272 | 0.732 | 0.264 | 3.86 | 0.229 | 94.64 | 60.7% | ||
| Beachy | 0.353 | 3.12 | 0.278 | 5.28 | 0.236 | 0.680 | 0.261 | 4.12 | 0.239 | 90.50 | 66.3% | ||
| Wheeler | 0.379 | 5.32 | 0.294 | 2.31 | 0.255 | 0.745 | 0.280 | 4.61 | 0.241 | 100.91 | 60.4% | ||
| Cosart | 0.279 | 1.09 | 0.244 | 1.29 | 0.260 | 0.737 | 0.239 | 3.50 | 0.207 | 103.00 | 58.3% | ||
| Blackley | 0.272 | 4.24 | 0.426 | 5.19 | 0.246 | 0.691 | 0.217 | 6.90 | 0.229 | 14.21 | 59.8% | ||
| Haren | 0.314 | 4.89 | 0.353 | 4.70 | 0.243 | 0.704 | 0.301 | 4.26 | 0.266 | 90.09 | 65.0% | ||
| Rusin | 0.244 | 3.12 | 0.302 | 3.04 | 0.221 | 0.641 | 0.255 | 3.88 | 0.230 | 81.50 | 61.1% | ||
| Lynn | 0.317 | 4.95 | 0.288 | 3.13 | 0.249 | 0.706 | 0.300 | 3.16 | 0.233 | 101.64 | 63.8% | ||
| Lohse | 0.309 | 3.52 | 0.300 | 2.88 | 0.284 | 0.764 | 0.268 | 4.13 | 0.248 | 93.52 | 66.0% | ||
| Danks | 0.326 | 4.91 | 0.330 | 4.42 | 0.258 | 0.684 | 0.260 | 5.10 | 0.253 | 99.25 | 65.5% | ||
| Santana | 0.294 | 2.64 | 0.305 | 3.99 | 0.253 | 0.689 | 0.271 | 3.74 | 0.237 | 101.79 | 65.0% | ||
| Salazar | 0.171 | 2.45 | 0.439 | 6.75 | 0.273 | 0.759 | 0.211 | 4.34 | 0.188 | 87.67 | 69.6% | ||
| Wilson | 0.265 | 2.60 | 0.325 | 3.63 | 0.265 | 0.757 | 0.315 | 3.25 | 0.252 | 110.96 | 63.0% | ||
| Saunders | 0.252 | 2.92 | 0.414 | 5.59 | 0.239 | 0.720 | 0.320 | 4.64 | 0.297 | 97.40 | 59.3% | ||
| Gray | 0.206 | 0.96 | 0.245 | 1.04 | 0.251 | 0.736 | 0.205 | 2.37 | 0.154 | 68.75 | 63.6% | ||
| Burnett | 0.363 | 4.53 | 0.241 | 2.18 | 0.242 | 0.672 | 0.310 | 2.86 | 0.231 | 100.91 | 64.8% | ||
| Ross | 0.295 | 3.00 | 0.263 | 2.33 | 0.243 | 0.700 | 0.267 | 3.34 | 0.214 | 46.48 | 61.8% | ||
| Peavy | 0.327 | 4.18 | 0.307 | 4.84 | 0.262 | 0.702 | 0.278 | 4.16 | 0.247 | 100.50 | 67.4% | ||
| Vogelsong | 0.368 | 5.46 | 0.448 | 8.42 | 0.285 | 0.816 | 0.348 | 5.59 | 0.312 | 94.09 | 61.9% | ||
- Opp Avg vs. L/R – Opponent Batting Average vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- Opp OPS vs. L/R – Opponent On Base + Slugging Percentage vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- wOBA-L and wOBA-R – Pitcher Weighted On Base Percentage Against vs. Left/Right Handed Batters
- ERA-L and ERA-R – Pitcher Earned Run Average against Left/Right Handed Batters
- BABIP – Pitcher Batting Average Against on Balls In Play
- FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching
- Pit/G – Average Pitches Thrown Per Game
- Strk% – Percentage of Pitches for Strikes
Starting Pitcher Salaries: August 20th, 2013
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window