Ervin Santana Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Some of you may have gone into shock when looking at the Vegas Odds page and seeing Baltimore above five implied runs. The O’s unloaded on Ivan Nova last night, but what kind of pitcher does it take to get them there? Let’s consider what Ervin Santana has done so far. He’s allowed 5 HRs in 8.2 IP with a 5.0 SwStr% and 13.6 BB% through two starts. He has a 32% ground ball rate and .503 xwOBA (20.6% Barrels/BBE). His body of work over the last calendar year is not very large (96 LHBs, 62 RHBs), but the numbers are still impressive. LHBs have a .382 wOBA (.401 xwOBA) and that’s his good side! RHBs have a .560 wOBA (.503 xwOBA). That’s a lot of hard contact in the air in a power friendly park tonight. Those kind of numbers give value to nearly any bat in an opposing lineup and Baltimore does have a few competent bats. Jonathan Villar (108 wRC+, .138 ISO) is one of four above average bats against RHP over the last calendar year. Renato Nunez (119 wRC+, .205 ISO), Trey Mancini (108 wRC+, .208 ISO), and Dwight Smith Jr. (132 wRC+, .246 ISO) have all shown above average power. One other thing to mention is Steve Wilkerson (44 wRC+, .091 ISO, 17.4 Hard%) has been terrible, but costs just $2.2K or less on either site out of the sixth slot. Lastly, for those still a bit gun shy about pulling the trigger on Baltimore bats, they are actually a favorite in tonight’s game AND the line has increased despite receiving a minority bet percentage so far. Reverse line movement is generally a strong sign.

Only Jim Adduci (109 wRC+, .161 ISO) and Nick Castellanos (117 wRC+, .226 ISO) have been above average hitters against RHP over the last calendar year. The latter additionally has a 180 wRC+ and 64.7 Hard% over the last week. However, Ervin Santana has allowed 15 runs and six HRs over his 20.2 innings this year. He has not exceeded a 5 SwStr% since his first start (6.2%) and has allowed 11.4% Barrels/BBE with a .421 xwOBA through four starts. Adduci is a very cheap bat in the two spot tonight. Jeimer Candelario (97 wRC+, .162 ISO) and Niko Goodrum (88 wRC+, .213 ISO) could be worth some exposure as well here and a Detroit stack might not be terrible.

Dropping a quarter of a run since early this afternoon, the Indians are still the top team on the board at exactly five implied runs currently. Ervin Santana struck out five of 23 Blue Jays in his season debut, but with just a 6.2 SwStr%, 18.8 GB% and 37.5 Hard%. He allowed six HRs in seven minor league rehab starts, only two of those starts at AAA. The top half of the Cleveland lineup is generally a strong daily fantasy bet. This includes Francisco Lindor (139 wRC+, .298 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Michael Brantley (135 wRC+, .197 ISO) and Jose Ramriez (173 wRC+, .337 ISO) with players then having a choice between Edwin Encarnacion (132 wRC+, .279 ISO) or Yonder Alonso (127 wRC+, .199 ISO). While not as positive a run environment as Cleveland, Minnesota may still be the second most positive run environment on the board behind Fenway tonight. While Santana has actually held LHBs to a .278 wOBA that's a bit below his .306 against RHBs since last season, but by xwOBA (.303 vs .306), hard hit rate (28%) and GB rate (40%) there is no real split.

Tonight's slate does not offer very many attractive stacking opportunities, but what it does offer is a lot of HR potential. Several of tonight's pitchers are either extreme fly ball generators, home run prone or both. Even Clayton Kershaw has allowed 20 HRs this seaon. In fact, among pitchers with at least 17 starts, only Luis Perdomo (17), Jaime Garcia (17) and Jameson Taillon (9) have failed to allow at least 20 HRs. Even among those three, Garcia struggled mightily with HRs in the past and pitches at Yankee Stadium (though his tendency for shorter outings backed by a monster bullpen may steer players away from opposing bats) while Paul Goldschmidt (3 HRs, 19 PAs) and J.D. Martinez (2 HRs, 6 PAs) have hammered Perdomo, a pitcher who generally grounds RHBs (67.8 GB% this year). The profitable approach to this slate may be in HR hunting rather than stacking a particular lineup. RHBs alone have a .415 wOBA and 18 HRs against Nick Pivetta (which may be where one of the better stacking opportunities lies if the Dodgers choose to load up that way). Dan Straily doesn't allow a ton of particularly hard contact (25% last six starts), but has allowed nine HRs over that span due to a 49.5% fly ball rate. Jharel Cotton has allowed a league average hard contact rate (31%) over his last seven or 18 starts, yet he has allowed 13 and 27 HRs over those two spans. Ervin Santana has allowed 29 HRs in 30 starts, 27 over his last 24 and has a .308 BABIP with a 4.34 ERA and 18 HRs over his last 17. The most interesting hitter on the slate may be Rhys Hoskins (217 wRC+, .643 ISO, 50 Hard%, 59.1 FB%, 40 PAs vs LHP). Sure, the sample is still very small, but he's done nearly a season's worth of damage already. Rostering batters facing Kershaw is not usually a recommended practice, but depending upon projected ownership, this could be one of those rare situations where it might be profitable. The aforementioned 20 HRs he's allowed are a career high by 25% (previous high was 16) with 14 of those being surrendered to RHBs.

With many of the top arms on the board going through recent struggles and several other young, in-established arms on the mound tonight, players may look to gravitate towards a pitcher with a 3.45 ERA and nearly league average strikeout and swinging strike rates against the lowly Padres (25 K% on the road, vs RHP and over the last week). Be careful with Ervin Santana though. Most players understand that his low ERA is the result of a .242 BABIP and 78.6% strand rate, while estimators are much higher (4.64 SIERA), but some may not understand how far he's fallen. The BABIP has actually course corrected. Since May 7th, his ERA matches estimators above four with 27 HRs allowed in 23 starts. Since the start of June, it's been even worse, as his BABIP has course corrected to .301 with an ERA and estimators all above four and a half. Some things for players to think about before paying $10.9K on DraftKings for his services tonight.

There are nine pitchers on tonight's slate with an average exit velocity below 86 mph this year. Among those, Jimmy Nelson (85.2 mph) has allowed the lowest rate of barrels per batted ball (3.9%). Trevor Williams has a well below average strikeout rate (17.3%) and both an ERA (4.14) and SIERA (4.70) above four, but estimators don't take into account the contact authority and he seems to be one of the best in the league at generating weak contact. His 84.9 mph aEV and 28.8% 95+ mph EV both lead the slate. Jharel Cotton (85.7 mph, 29.5%) is the only other pitcher on the board with a 95+ mph EV below 30%, though he's still allowed 23 HRs over his last 16 starts. Along the same lines, Ervin Santana has an 85.4 mph aEV and 30.7% 95+ mph EV, but has allowed 26 HRs over his last 22 starts. Max Scherzer (85.8 mph), Luke Weaver (85.8 mph) and Yu Darvish (85.6 mph) are all among the top average exit velocities tonight. Like Williams, Jose Urena is another pitcher with a low strikeout rate (16.1%) with a low aEV (85.4 mph) and 95+ mph EV (30.1%).

The Detroit Tigers, New York Mets and Chicago White Sox are three teams that have traded away a lot of their veteran hitters. For first two teams, 2017 was supposed to be a contending year, while the White Sox were intent on rebuilding before the season even starts. Perhaps that's why these teams have gone in different directions since the trade deadline. While we're most often looking at season long numbers, what their lineups look like at this point in the season might tell a very different story. The Tigers have a 94 wRC+, 22 K% and 11.6 HR/FB against RHP, despite a 24.3 Hard-Soft%. A lot of that hard contact is what they lost when they traded away J.D. Martinez and Alex Avial. It may not matter tonight against Luis Severino, but PlateIQ tells us that the confirmed lineup has a .311 wOBA, 19.3 K% and .140 ISO vs RHP. Perhaps fewer strikeouts, but a less potent lineup than what you might expect. Yet, their 94 wRC+ against RHP might have suggested that anyway. The White Sox have an 87 wRC+, 22.5 K% and 13.4 HR/FB against RHP this year, but what's actually happened after trading away their veteran bats is that Yoan Moncada (140 wRC+, .250 ISO vs RHP) and Nick Delmonico (193 wRC+, .308 ISO vs RHP) have been major improvements.Tonight's confirmed lineup has a .329 wOBA, 23.2 K% and .156 ISO against RHP, which is generally a league average offense and potentially a problem for Ervin Santana, who has allowed 24 HRs over his last 20 starts. The Mets have a 100 wRC+, 19.7 K% and 13.7 HR/FB vs RHP, but have traded away a good portion of their LH power in Duda, Granderson and Bruce. Tonight's confirmed lineup without Yoenis Cespedes has a .304 wOBA, 20 K% and .147 ISO vs RHP this year, confirming Zack Godley as a top pitching option tonight.

The Yankees game is currently delayed, which adds some risk to Tanaka, who will toe the rubber against the Tigers this afternoon. He boasts the lowest SIERA on the board (3.54) and his overall k-rate of 25.1% is 4.6% above J.A. Happ, who comes in at second. Detroit will send out a lineup with a combined .149 ISO and .312 ISO vs. RHP this season and have a 21.0% strikeout rate. As a result, they have the lowest projected run total on the early slate (3.69) and Tanaka is the biggest favorite among the six starters (+231). Fittingly, Tanaka tops our projections model Wednesday afternoon while Happ is a distant third. Ervin Santana checks in as our SP2. His opponent, the Padres, have the second-lowest implied total on the slate (3.95) and their projected lineup has a combined 23.3% strikeout rate. However, Santana's K% and SwStr% are well below Tanaka's at 18.7% and 9.3%, respectively. It appears Tanaka has a much bigger upside yet Santana's $10.2k price tag on DraftKings is $1k more than Tanaka. While both pitchers will be popular, Happ makes for an interesting GPP option - at least on two-pitcher sites - given the poor lineup Chicago will start against him. They have a combined .108 ISO, .293 ISO, and 20.3% K% against LHP over the past two seasons and only two bats have ISOs above .114 against LHP this season. He's much cheaper than the other two options. Luis Perdomo is another cheap target on Wednesday, but his 11.9% K% is concerning considering five of the eight Twins bats are expected to hit from the left side, although Minnesota has a combined 23.4% K% against RHP this year.

The Chicago Cubs and Texas Rangers are both currently implied for six runs tonight and as such, they project to dominate ownership across both sites without a lot of high priced pitching. Dodgers against Ervin Santana (10 HRs last seven starts) and Kansas City RHBs against Anibal Sanchez (RHBs .394 wOBA this year) may make interesting, more lightly represented alternatives. The Carlos's, Carrasco and Martinez, are the top projected pitchers and are expected to be most popular tonight. While there are a few interesting pitchers on the board tonight, there are few standouts. Aaron Nola has gone seven innings in five of his last six starts with a 22.3 K-BB%. He's projected to have few takers tonight, but George Springer's absence may make his matchup with the Astros more appealing.