Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 26th, 2013
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Performance and Talent Statistics: August 26th, 2013
| PLAYER | PERFORMANCE | TALENT | |||||||||
| PITCHER | TM | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leake | CIN | 158.2 | 3.12 | 4.26 | 1.23 | 56.0% | 14.6% | 5.9% | 0.96 | 1.57 | |
| Lyons | STL | 40.2 | 5.09 | 4.34 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 16.2% | 7.5% | 0.89 | 1.33 | |
| Hughes | NYY | 131.0 | 4.88 | 4.14 | 1.39 | 41.7% | 19.6% | 6.5% | 1.58 | 0.65 | |
| Dickey | TOR | 176.1 | 4.49 | 4.27 | 1.27 | 40.7% | 18.3% | 7.9% | 1.43 | 1.02 | |
| Griffin | OAK | 164.0 | 3.84 | 4.29 | 1.16 | 30.8% | 19.1% | 6.9% | 1.65 | 0.63 | |
| Sanchez | DET | 139.2 | 2.45 | 3.14 | 1.13 | 68.2% | 26.7% | 7.2% | 0.39 | 1.36 | |
| Lee | PHI | 170.2 | 3.16 | 3.18 | 1.05 | 50.0% | 23.2% | 4.0% | 0.95 | 1.30 | |
| Wheeler | NYM | 69.2 | 3.49 | 4.33 | 1.38 | 41.7% | 20.6% | 10.6% | 1.16 | 1.03 | |
| Oberholtzer | HOU | 34.0 | 2.91 | 4.32 | 1.09 | 75.0% | 15.9% | 3.6% | 0.79 | 0.63 | |
| Rienzo | CWS | 30.1 | 3.56 | 4.63 | 1.32 | 60.0% | 16.0% | 10.7% | 0.89 | 1.72 | |
| Zito | SFG | 120.0 | 5.63 | 4.90 | 1.72 | 27.3% | 14.6% | 9.1% | 1.20 | 0.98 | |
| Nicasio | COL | 126.0 | 4.79 | 4.53 | 1.40 | 25.0% | 15.9% | 8.5% | 1.07 | 1.33 | |
| Ross | SDP | 85.1 | 2.85 | 3.69 | 1.17 | 55.6% | 22.0% | 9.5% | 0.63 | 1.67 | |
| McCarthy | ARI | 86.0 | 5.44 | 4.19 | 1.50 | 26.7% | 14.4% | 4.7% | 0.94 | 1.53 | |
| Blackley | TEX | 39.0 | 4.85 | 4.50 | 1.38 | 0.0% | 18.6% | 12.6% | 2.54 | 1.10 | |
| Saunders | SEA | 150.1 | 4.91 | 4.61 | 1.57 | 46.2% | 12.7% | 7.5% | 1.26 | 1.72 | |
| Arrieta | CHC | 40.2 | 5.75 | 4.85 | 1.48 | 25.0% | 20.7% | 14.5% | 0.89 | 1.19 | |
| Greinke | LAD | 133.0 | 2.91 | 3.93 | 1.19 | 57.1% | 18.9% | 6.8% | 0.74 | 1.45 | |
STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
Zack Greinke, LAD (v. CHC) – The most amazing thing about Greinke’s 0.96 ERA in August might be the fact that it’s fourth in baseball behind Jose Fernandez (0.82), Mat Latos (0.89), and teammate Clayton Kershaw (0.90). After an inconsistent start to his Dodgers career that saw him with a 4.30 ERA through 12 starts, Greinke has been the ace-quality #2 they were hoping for when they paid him this offseason. He has a 1.41 ERA in his last nine starts spanning 64 IP with 51 Ks and 13 BBs. He gets a Cubs team that hasn’t been particularly special against righties at all this year, including the last two weeks where they’ve posted a .280 wOBA that sites 25th in MLB.
Anibal Sanchez, DET (v. OAK) – After a pair of sub-six inning starts upon returning from the DL back in early-July during which Sanchez seemingly shook off the cobwebs, he has gone on a seven start run posting a 1.51 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 47.7 IP with 41 Ks and just 14 BBs. Oakland’s offense has been hot and cold all year and they are currently in a chilly spell with a .277 wOBA against righties the last two weeks, good for 26th in MLB.
Cliff Lee, PHI (at NYM) – Lee is quietly plugging away for the terrible Phillies and while he hasn’t had eye-popping results, he labored through a minor-injury plagued July to post a 3.81 ERA in four August starts with 26 Ks and a mere 5 BBs in 26 IP. The Mets had a huge July offensively, but they’ve scored more than five runs just twice in August which coincides with the loss of David Wright. Wright isn’t the only reason – no single guy means QUITE that much to his team – but it has been a big loss.
Tyson Ross, SD (at ARI) – Ross has been excellent since joining the rotation on July 23rd with a 2.01 ERA in 40.3 IP. More importantly, those numbers aren’t built only on premium home starts as Ross has been able to take his show on the road without incident. Of his six starts, three are on the road and he’s posted a disgusting 0.86 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 21 IP. I don’t think it’s ever been about talent with Ross, rather health and he’s finally healthy.
GOOD BUYS:
This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.
Brett Oberholtzer, HOU (at CWS) – Small samples sizes abound, but the hefty workhorse for the Astros has been mighty impressive in four starts dropping a 1.69 ERA in 26.7 IP despite facing the likes of Baltimore, Boston, Texas, and the Angels. He doesn’t miss a ton of bats with just 18 Ks, but he also doesn’t give free passes with only 5 BBs. The White Sox offer him a great chance to stay hot as they’ve been a horrid offense all year, particularly against lefties.
Zack Wheeler, NYM (v. PHI) – He’s been a bit up and down in his debut season, but still more good than bad and his improving strikeout rate helps mitigate some of the damage from outings when he allows three or four earned runs. The Phillies have been running with a meager .293 wOBA against righties the last two weeks so I expect better results for Wheeler than his 4.7 IP/2 ER outing against them back on July 20th when he allowed nine base runners.
Andre Rienzo, CWS (v. HOU) – He gets the standard tier upgrade boost for facing Houston, but it’s also worth noting that he’s gone six or more innings in four of his five starts with 5+ Ks in three of them, too.
Brandon McCarthy, ARI (v. SD) – If we can’t start him as at least a secondary option against the Padres, then we can’t ever start him. Despite a horrid start to the season that saw him post a 7.48 ERA through April, he actually had his worst start of the year last time out going 2.3 IP/7 ER in Cincinnati. And yet, I still like him a little bit today. He went 7 IP/1 ER against the Padres back on May 24th and while they’ve been a little bit above average in wOBA against righties the last two weeks, I still think their 28th-ranked .295 for the season is more who they are.
USE CAUTION:
R.A. Dickey, TOR (at NYY) / Phil Hughes, NYY (v. TOR) – Have you watched either of them pitch this year? I mean, seriously? The second you start trusting them – because they are both quite talented, especially at their best – they kick your face in with a 6 ER outing. Even on a short slate, I think you can find much better options whether you want to invest big bucks in a top ace or find a bargain bin guy who can give you a strong outing.
Mike Leake, CIN (at STL) – The Cards have dropped two of the worse outings of Leake’s season on him with 10 ER in 10 IP, the most recent coming on August 4th (5 IP/7 ER). He’s still toting a great 3.12 ERA on the season, but where’s the upside here?
Travis Blackley, TEX (at SEA) – Seattle has gone back to being wretched at the dish, so was their hot streak simply that or is this just a lull before a reemergence? I’m still a little skeptical on Blackley because I’m not sure how deep he can go with a limit pitch count.
NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT, HERE’S WHY:
A.J. Griffin, OAK (at DET) – He’s a homer machine facing one of the best offenses in baseball.
Tyler Lyons, STL (v. CIN) – After a pair of 7 IP/1 ER outings against SD and KC, Lyons came crashing back to earth with a 7.09 ERA in his next six outings including a 5.3 IP/4 ER outing at Cincinnati.
Jake Arrieta, CHC (at LAD) – He gave back the goodwill generated from his 7 IP/0 ER outing against STl with a 4 IP/6 ER dud against the Nats. We need to see some sustained success before trusting him, especially against a team like the Dodgers.
Joe Saunders, SEA (v. TEX) – He’s not good at pitching baseballs.
YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:
Couldn’t pay me to use these guys.
Juan Nicaso, COL (v. SF)
Barry Zito, SF (at COL)
ADVANCED METRICS: August 26th, 2013
| VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS | OPP vs L/R | OTHER ADVANCED STATS | |||||||||||
| PITCHER | wOBA L | ERA L | wOBA R | ERA R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% | ||
| Leake | 0.317 | 2.71 | 0.307 | 3.46 | 0.284 | 0.766 | 0.277 | 4.05 | 0.254 | 94.96 | 63.9% | ||
| Lyons | 0.344 | 7.45 | 0.338 | 4.35 | 0.243 | 0.707 | 0.286 | 4.04 | 0.253 | 74.63 | 65.2% | ||
| Hughes | 0.362 | 4.79 | 0.342 | 5.06 | 0.255 | 0.748 | 0.313 | 4.58 | 0.277 | 94.54 | 66.8% | ||
| Dickey | 0.347 | 4.95 | 0.305 | 4.10 | 0.244 | 0.687 | 0.267 | 4.72 | 0.243 | 104.11 | 64.8% | ||
| Griffin | 0.306 | 3.91 | 0.316 | 3.79 | 0.286 | 0.787 | 0.241 | 4.72 | 0.227 | 101.50 | 64.6% | ||
| Sanchez | 0.297 | 3.28 | 0.242 | 1.60 | 0.244 | 0.710 | 0.302 | 2.34 | 0.222 | 102.36 | 64.6% | ||
| Lee | 0.286 | 3.24 | 0.290 | 3.15 | 0.245 | 0.693 | 0.286 | 3.09 | 0.236 | 103.92 | 70.9% | ||
| Wheeler | 0.377 | 5.47 | 0.287 | 2.30 | 0.254 | 0.702 | 0.282 | 4.44 | 0.241 | 102.00 | 60.6% | ||
| Oberholtzer | 0.399 | 3.00 | 0.249 | 3.00 | 0.243 | 0.656 | 0.271 | 3.42 | 0.242 | 72.14 | 67.7% | ||
| Rienzo | 0.277 | 3.32 | 0.385 | 4.15 | 0.237 | 0.678 | 0.250 | 4.42 | 0.224 | 97.80 | 58.7% | ||
| Zito | 0.399 | 4.38 | 0.383 | 6.08 | 0.260 | 0.706 | 0.351 | 4.78 | 0.315 | 81.77 | 61.9% | ||
| Nicasio | 0.330 | 5.40 | 0.347 | 4.29 | 0.261 | 0.701 | 0.287 | 4.38 | 0.258 | 93.54 | 62.2% | ||
| Ross | 0.310 | 3.29 | 0.267 | 2.30 | 0.257 | 0.716 | 0.268 | 3.43 | 0.216 | 48.46 | 61.7% | ||
| McCarthy | 0.350 | 4.86 | 0.360 | 6.13 | 0.244 | 0.677 | 0.345 | 3.85 | 0.308 | 91.80 | 67.8% | ||
| Blackley | 0.277 | 4.15 | 0.406 | 5.14 | 0.231 | 0.661 | 0.214 | 6.80 | 0.228 | 15.42 | 60.2% | ||
| Saunders | 0.252 | 2.82 | 0.421 | 5.69 | 0.266 | 0.747 | 0.324 | 4.78 | 0.302 | 97.58 | 59.3% | ||
| Arrieta | 0.327 | 5.06 | 0.353 | 6.75 | 0.271 | 0.728 | 0.275 | 4.63 | 0.227 | 89.00 | 59.8% | ||
| Greinke | 0.346 | 3.62 | 0.262 | 2.39 | 0.244 | 0.707 | 0.283 | 3.53 | 0.241 | 100.71 | 61.7% | ||
- Opp Avg vs. L/R – Opponent Batting Average vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- Opp OPS vs. L/R – Opponent On Base + Slugging Percentage vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- wOBA-L and wOBA-R – Pitcher Weighted On Base Percentage Against vs. Left/Right Handed Batters
- ERA-L and ERA-R – Pitcher Earned Run Average against Left/Right Handed Batters
- BABIP – Pitcher Batting Average Against on Balls In Play
- FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching
- Pit/G – Average Pitches Thrown Per Game
- Strk% – Percentage of Pitches for Strikes
Starting Pitcher Salaries: August 26th, 2013
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window