Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 2nd
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greene | NYY | BOS | 24.2 | 3.28 | 3.54 | 1.18 | 100.0% | 18.3% | 7.7% | 0.73 | 2.75 |
| Webster | BOS | NYY | |||||||||
| Vargas | KCR | OAK | 125 | 3.31 | 4.22 | 1.23 | 68.4% | 15.8% | 5.6% | 1.01 | 1.08 |
| Lester | OAK | KCR | 143 | 2.52 | 3.01 | 1.12 | 65.0% | 25.7% | 5.5% | 0.57 | 1.19 |
| Burnett | PHI | WAS | 149.2 | 4.15 | 4.11 | 1.36 | 38.1% | 19.0% | 9.9% | 0.72 | 1.81 |
| Zimmermann | WAS | PHI | 125 | 3.17 | 3.21 | 1.20 | 52.6% | 22.0% | 4.1% | 0.65 | 1.38 |
| Paxton | SEA | BAL | 12 | 2.25 | 2.22 | 0.67 | 50.0% | 30.2% | 4.7% | 1.50 | 2.14 |
| Gonzalez | BAL | SEA | 102.2 | 3.77 | 4.48 | 1.42 | 40.0% | 16.8% | 8.5% | 1.49 | 0.91 |
| Mikolas | TEX | CLE | 26.1 | 8.54 | 4.69 | 1.67 | 13.0% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 1.28 | |
| House | CLE | TEX | 50 | 4.50 | 3.61 | 1.56 | 25.0% | 14.4% | 6.3% | 1.26 | 3.19 |
| Matzek | COL | DET | 55.1 | 4.39 | 4.45 | 1.39 | 25.0% | 14.7% | 7.6% | 0.49 | 1.37 |
| Porcello | DET | COL | 133.1 | 3.24 | 3.99 | 1.13 | 55.6% | 14.8% | 5.3% | 0.81 | 1.77 |
| Dickey | TOR | HOU | 145 | 3.91 | 3.97 | 1.28 | 47.6% | 20.2% | 8.4% | 1.18 | 1.14 |
| Oberholtzer | HOU | TOR | 83.2 | 4.30 | 4.48 | 1.41 | 41.7% | 14.7% | 5.5% | 0.75 | 0.83 |
| Bailey | CIN | MIA | 131.2 | 4.03 | 3.64 | 1.28 | 31.6% | 20.1% | 7.4% | 1.09 | 1.80 |
| Eovaldi | MIA | CIN | 136 | 4.37 | 4.04 | 1.26 | 50.0% | 16.2% | 4.9% | 0.73 | 1.20 |
| Wilson | LAA | TBR | 116.1 | 4.33 | 3.77 | 1.33 | 42.1% | 21.8% | 9.8% | 1.08 | 1.82 |
| Archer | TBR | LAA | 125.2 | 3.37 | 3.92 | 1.31 | 55.0% | 20.2% | 9.2% | 0.43 | 1.66 |
| Pino | MIN | CWS | 39 | 4.38 | 4.06 | 1.23 | 40.0% | 18.5% | 4.9% | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| Carroll | CWS | MIN | 79.2 | 4.29 | 4.46 | 1.48 | 33.3% | 11.6% | 7.7% | 0.79 | 2.01 |
| Peavy | SFG | NYM | 130 | 4.71 | 4.25 | 1.42 | 42.1% | 18.6% | 8.5% | 1.38 | 0.96 |
| Degrom | NYM | SFG | 87 | 2.79 | 3.63 | 1.26 | 50.0% | 23.1% | 8.6% | 0.52 | 1.32 |
| Lohse | MIL | STL | 146.2 | 3.07 | 3.86 | 1.10 | 50.0% | 17.9% | 4.7% | 0.80 | 1.07 |
| Masterson | STL | MIL | 98 | 5.51 | 4.06 | 1.65 | 36.8% | 20.6% | 12.4% | 0.55 | 2.81 |
| Worley | PIT | ARI | 49.2 | 2.54 | 3.95 | 1.07 | 40.0% | 15.2% | 4.1% | 0.72 | 1.41 |
| Anderson | ARI | PIT | 67.1 | 3.34 | 3.87 | 1.32 | 40.0% | 21.2% | 8.5% | 1.34 | 1.15 |
| Santana | ATL | SDP | 131.1 | 3.63 | 3.43 | 1.23 | 38.9% | 22.2% | 7.0% | 0.62 | 1.61 |
| Kennedy | SDP | ATL | 135.1 | 3.66 | 3.27 | 1.22 | 47.6% | 25.5% | 7.5% | 0.73 | 1.13 |
| Wada | CHC | LAD | 16 | 3.38 | 4.17 | 1.31 | 19.4% | 9.0% | 0.00 | 1.06 | |
| Ryu | LAD | CHC | 117.2 | 3.44 | 3.32 | 1.21 | 61.1% | 21.4% | 4.7% | 0.61 | 1.42 |
GOLD BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Jon Lester – Lester allowed only 3 earned runs in 29 innings pitched in July and will look to carry that over for his new squad today against the Royals. He had no fewer than 7 strikeouts in any of those July games and the Royals have started to strike out more frequently as of late. Just be aware you will have to play the early slate on your favorite site to roster him today.
Ervin Santana – Santana has been in his early season form the last two starts allowing 1 earned run in 15 1/3 innings pitched. The most recent start was a dominant outing facing these very Padres posting 11 strike outs in 8 innings. The Padres have shown some signs of life recently but still rank well below every team in the league in most categories used to evaluate hitting.
Jacob deGrom – deGrom has had a great rookie season and his July was the best month yet. He went 4-1 with 38 strike outs in 32 1/3 innings pitched. In that same span of games he had a 1.39 ERA and held opponents to a .225 average. Another stat to note is he has pitched very well at home posting a 1.83 ERA with a very solid K rate.
Jordan Zimmermann – He has been a mixed bag this year posting a 3.17 ERA and 113 strike outs in 125 innings pitched. The Phillies roll into town tonight and the last time he faced them at home (June 3rd) he went 8 innings without allowing a run and striking out 5 and picked up the win. July wasn’t kind to Zimmermann but this match up at home has us thinking we see the better version tonight in Washington D.C.
SILVER BUYS:
On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.
Hyun-Jin Ryu – Ryu is 3-0 with 22 strike outs in 19 innings pitched and a very solid 2.37 ERA in his last 3 starts. Tonight he will face a Cubs team that ranks near the bottom of most major hitting categories. His historical numbers suggest he won’t maintain the strike out pace he had in July but if any team will continue the trend it is the Cubs who rank dead last in K% vLHP.
Rick Porcello – Outside of 1 bad start against Tampa Bay he had a really solid July and even with that game he might have been the best pitcher in the rotation this past month. Porcello is not a high strike out guy but he does pitch deep into games and has a solid 1.13 WHIP on the season. If you play on a site that gives a bigger bonus for the win he is a solid option with 12 wins in 20 starts and the Tigers face a soft LHP tonight.
Ian Kennedy – I am a little surprised that Kennedy was not moved at the trade deadline. He had a solid July going 3-0 with a 2.53 ERA and striking out 32 batters in 32 innings pitched. There is a bit of concern in that he was scratched last time out due to injury but the Braves have a high K% vRHP and Kennedy offers plenty of upside in that department.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
C.J. Wilson – Wilson will make his first start since July 9th because of an ankle injury that forced him to the DL. He is at his lowest price of the season in at least a couple places which makes him more of a value in my eyes. He was very up and down earlier in the season posting a great game followed by a dud and the Angels will need him to be more consistent down the stretch. The one huge positive is that he posted a complete game shutout the only time he faced the Rays this season.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- Miles Mikolas TEX (at CLE)
- Brett Oberholtzer HOU (v. TOR)
- Tyler Matzek COL (at DET)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greene | 0.331 | 3.68 | 0.245 | 0.690 | 0.260 | 3.86 | 0.223 | 83.20 | 18.3% | ||
| Webster | 0.246 | 0.689 | |||||||||
| Vargas | 0.314 | 2.27 | 0.311 | 3.66 | 0.242 | 0.714 | 0.285 | 4.09 | 0.257 | 103.58 | 15.8% |
| Lester | 0.296 | 1.91 | 0.280 | 2.70 | 0.253 | 0.675 | 0.308 | 2.62 | 0.235 | 109.86 | 25.7% |
| Burnett | 0.358 | 5.45 | 0.294 | 3.12 | 0.239 | 0.685 | 0.292 | 3.99 | 0.244 | 103.70 | 19.0% |
| Zimmermann | 0.305 | 3.19 | 0.305 | 3.14 | 0.241 | 0.662 | 0.327 | 2.84 | 0.264 | 88.19 | 22.0% |
| Paxton | 0.258 | 0.733 | 0.154 | 3.63 | 0.146 | 79.50 | 30.2% | ||||
| Gonzalez | 0.349 | 2.68 | 0.359 | 5.12 | 0.241 | 0.681 | 0.294 | 5.14 | 0.269 | 93.00 | 16.8% |
| Mikolas | 0.326 | 9.60 | 0.395 | 7.15 | 0.261 | 0.747 | 0.340 | 4.54 | 0.31 | 88.40 | 13.0% |
| House | 0.318 | 4.67 | 0.397 | 4.41 | 0.275 | 0.749 | 0.343 | 4.69 | 0.312 | 80.60 | 14.4% |
| Matzek | 0.245 | 2.08 | 0.351 | 5.10 | 0.284 | 0.785 | 0.311 | 3.66 | 0.271 | 84.30 | 14.7% |
| Porcello | 0.297 | 2.95 | 0.299 | 3.60 | 0.281 | 0.777 | 0.271 | 3.78 | 0.246 | 98.30 | 14.8% |
| Dickey | 0.319 | 3.06 | 0.320 | 4.59 | 0.226 | 0.669 | 0.273 | 4.34 | 0.236 | 104.83 | 20.2% |
| Oberholtzer | 0.305 | 3.32 | 0.342 | 4.59 | 0.243 | 0.705 | 0.326 | 3.74 | 0.289 | 94.50 | 14.7% |
| Bailey | 0.347 | 4.38 | 0.306 | 3.81 | 0.249 | 0.693 | 0.294 | 4.12 | 0.252 | 98.90 | 20.1% |
| Eovaldi | 0.359 | 4.86 | 0.260 | 3.77 | 0.241 | 0.673 | 0.303 | 3.57 | 0.265 | 99.05 | 16.2% |
| Wilson | 0.263 | 4.22 | 0.338 | 4.38 | 0.260 | 0.734 | 0.295 | 4.27 | 0.245 | 106.37 | 21.8% |
| Archer | 0.280 | 3.07 | 0.315 | 3.74 | 0.258 | 0.727 | 0.301 | 3.35 | 0.242 | 97.62 | 20.2% |
| Pino | 0.353 | 3.98 | 0.244 | 4.82 | 0.255 | 0.727 | 0.308 | 3.29 | 0.261 | 93.14 | 18.5% |
| Carroll | 0.377 | 3.97 | 0.307 | 4.78 | 0.242 | 0.687 | 0.311 | 4.56 | 0.286 | 76.29 | 11.6% |
| Peavy | 0.366 | 5.85 | 0.337 | 3.47 | 0.235 | 0.673 | 0.301 | 4.72 | 0.267 | 103.10 | 18.6% |
| Degrom | 0.300 | 1.77 | 0.292 | 3.51 | 0.241 | 0.674 | 0.310 | 3.07 | 0.242 | 102.64 | 23.1% |
| Lohse | 0.288 | 2.88 | 0.280 | 3.22 | 0.249 | 0.676 | 0.269 | 3.50 | 0.235 | 100.09 | 17.9% |
| Masterson | 0.408 | 6.88 | 0.305 | 3.94 | 0.257 | 0.725 | 0.350 | 4.08 | 0.275 | 90.16 | 20.6% |
| Worley | 0.298 | 3.22 | 0.261 | 1.98 | 0.253 | 0.694 | 0.266 | 3.51 | 0.239 | 85.25 | 15.2% |
| Anderson | 0.298 | 3.03 | 0.367 | 3.58 | 0.259 | 0.737 | 0.294 | 4.44 | 0.253 | 92.50 | 21.2% |
| Santana | 0.358 | 4.07 | 0.250 | 3.18 | 0.224 | 0.628 | 0.317 | 3.09 | 0.254 | 97.35 | 22.2% |
| Kennedy | 0.294 | 2.59 | 0.313 | 4.58 | 0.241 | 0.666 | 0.310 | 3.09 | 0.239 | 104.05 | 25.5% |
| Wada | 0.343 | 4.76 | 0.230 | 0.670 | 0.313 | 2.63 | 0.246 | 90.33 | 19.4% | ||
| Ryu | 0.294 | 3.38 | 0.290 | 3.46 | 0.267 | 0.757 | 0.314 | 2.84 | 0.255 | 95.65 | 21.4% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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