Daily Pitcher Breakdown: July 25th, 2013
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Performance and Talent Statistics: July 25th, 2013
| PLAYER | PERFORMANCE | TALENT | |||||||||
| PITCHER | TM | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bedard | HOU | 98.0 | 4.41 | 4.55 | 1.48 | 33.3% | 20.7% | 11.9% | 1.29 | 0.74 | |
| Buehrle | TOR | 123.0 | 4.83 | 4.30 | 1.40 | 40.0% | 15.2% | 6.1% | 1.17 | 1.37 | |
| Hellickson | TBR | 122.2 | 4.62 | 3.81 | 1.21 | 40.0% | 20.0% | 5.8% | 1.17 | 1.04 | |
| Lackey | BOS | 106.2 | 2.95 | 3.23 | 1.16 | 64.7% | 22.7% | 5.2% | 1.18 | 1.65 | |
| Kendrick | PHI | 130.1 | 3.94 | 4.19 | 1.28 | 60.0% | 14.6% | 5.6% | 0.90 | 1.63 | |
| Lynn | STL | 122.0 | 4.13 | 3.81 | 1.27 | 50.0% | 22.4% | 8.5% | 0.52 | 1.17 | |
| Gonzalez | BAL | 107.2 | 3.34 | 4.30 | 1.19 | 47.1% | 18.0% | 7.7% | 1.17 | 0.98 | |
| Guthrie | KCR | 126.2 | 4.41 | 5.10 | 1.41 | 50.0% | 11.7% | 8.2% | 1.56 | 1.18 | |
| Villanueva | CHC | 84.1 | 4.16 | 4.17 | 1.26 | 45.5% | 17.6% | 7.5% | 0.96 | 1.20 | |
| Miley | ARI | 120.2 | 4.03 | 4.03 | 1.38 | 40.0% | 17.5% | 7.7% | 1.19 | 1.81 | |
| Wilson | LAA | 128.2 | 3.15 | 3.90 | 1.28 | 55.0% | 21.5% | 8.9% | 0.63 | 1.39 | |
| Straily | OAK | 87.0 | 4.14 | 4.10 | 1.13 | 53.3% | 19.6% | 7.3% | 0.83 | 0.85 | |
| Correia | MIN | 116.2 | 4.17 | 4.46 | 1.36 | 36.8% | 13.2% | 5.5% | 1.39 | 1.41 | |
| Iwakuma | SEA | 138.1 | 2.99 | 3.26 | 0.95 | 57.1% | 22.4% | 3.9% | 1.37 | 1.25 | |
| Latos | CIN | 125.0 | 3.53 | 3.41 | 1.29 | 50.0% | 24.7% | 7.5% | 0.79 | 1.26 | |
| Greinke | LAD | 91.0 | 3.36 | 4.13 | 1.29 | 46.7% | 18.7% | 7.9% | 0.69 | 1.35 | |
STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA (v. MIN) – Iwakuma suffered through a run of four starts during which he allowed 10 home runs and that yielded an insane 6.75 ERA, but thankfully he has rebounded since with back-to-back seven inning outings allowing three and two runs, respectively, with seven strikeouts in each. The homerfest strikes me as more of a bad stretch as opposed to harbinger of trouble to come. He spends his life in the strike zone so home runs are bound to happen, but his command was shaky during that run. Poor command + pounding the strike zone constantly = home runs. His command looked great in those last two starts and thus just one homer allowed.
Miguel Gonzalez, BAL (at KC) – Gonzalez and Chen are two of the more underrated arms going right now. The two teammates have both made this section the last two days and Gonzalez is even better than Chen. Since coming off of the disabled list, Gonzalez has a 2.76 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 65.3 IP over 10 starts. He’s gone six-plus in the last nine and he’s given up three or fewer earned run in the last eight. Like Chen he torched Texas in his last two outings posting 6.7 IP/1 ER each time with four strikeouts at home and three during the one at Texas. Chen was solid on Wednesday night going 7.3 IP and allowing three earned, but all three came on two Eric Hosmer home runs. So maybe Gonzalez should just walk him.
Wade Miley, ARI (v. CHC) – Have noticed Miley’s surge lately? He has a 2.89 ERA in his last nine, allowing three or fewer in each of them. In fairness, I will point out that he went fewer than five innings in two of them as he ran up large pitch counts and ended up out of the game before things went too far south, but he has several strong outings in the run, too. The Cubs get their third lefty this series. They handled Skaggs, but Corbin shut them down. Miley is probably in between them skill-wise so I can see a solid outing. He’s dirt-cheap still so he makes this tier given the upside and bang-for-buck.
GOOD BUYS:
This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.
This tier is loaded with strong guys facing each other which cuts into their win probability severely.
C.J. Wilson, LAA (at OAK) –Wilson is quietly dominating lately. It’s certainly not his fault that the Angels are terrible. He has a 2.24 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in his last nine over 60.3 IP with 54 strikeouts. That includes a brilliant effort against the A’s his last time out during which he went 8.3 scoreless inning allowing three hits and two walks while striking out eight.
Jeremy Hellickson, TB (at BOS) – Speaking of dominating, Helly has a 2.19 ERA in his last six and a 3.35 ERA in his last nine despite that run including an 8 ER outing against Kansas City. In the six-start run, he has 34 strikeouts and just 10 walks over 37 innings including a trip to Boston during which he went six strong allowing just two earned, while striking out four, and walking nobody. He’s been great, but you might be overlooking him because his composite ERA is still an ugly 4.62. Of course getting a win won’t be easy because he’s facing Lackey.
John Lackey, BOS (v. TB) – He is throwing the best ball of his career this year. He has allowed three or fewer in 14 of his 17 starts and he was smashed in only one of those other three when he allowed five earned in 4.3 IP in Tampa Bay. In fact, Tampa is the only team to really get to him this year as he has an 8.10 ERA against them in two starts this year while the rest of the league has got to him for a measly 2.42 ERA. Of course two starts isn’t exactly a major sample size so I’m not shying away from him entirely just because of this matchup. Both of those TB outings were in TB and Lackey has a 1.90 ERA at home.
Zack Greinke, LAD (v. CIN) / Mat Latos, CIN (at LAD) – These two are both excellent and Greinke is actually on fire right now with a 0.41 ERA in his last three, but these two offenses are pretty much the two hottest in the NL of late and despite the stature of both guys, I’m a little nervous about them in this spot. Of course, I wouldn’t be surprised if they had a pitcher’s duel, but even then we’re back to the scenario that plagues this entire tier today and one, if not both, will be left without a win.
Dan Straily, OAK (v. LAA) – I was shocked to see that Straily had a 53% Gem rate and a 4.14 ERA. Those two things don’t really add up and then I realize it’s because he has three outings where he allowed 6 ER. So he has three starts of 11.32 ERA spanning 14.3 IP and in his other 12, he has a 2.72 ERA in 72.7 IP. While LAA has one of the 6 ER outings, it was back on April 29th and he went back to LAA in his last outing and dropped seven strong innings on them allowing two earned with four strikeouts and no walks.
Carlos Villanueva, CHC (at ARI) – Villanueva has been much better in relief than as a starter (like most pitchers, but some do the opposite which is always weird). He has a 4.46 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 66.7 IP as a starter, but a 3.06 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 17.7 IP as a reliever. Of course he has two outings against the Rockies during which he’s allowed 14 ER in two starts spanning just nine innings. If you remove those, his ERA is 2.96 in 57.7 IP as a starter plus the Diamondbacks are wildly inconsistent so this could be a nice spot for a secondary arm. We could see a pitcher’s duel with Miley throwing well of late, but don’t sleep on Villanueva just because of the elevated composite numbers.
Mark Buehrle, TOR (v. HOU) – Buehrle is getting some Houston bonus because generally he doesn’t really do much for me. He’s rebounded from his horrific start and he’s actually posted a 3.65 ERA in his last 11 starts, but he doesn’t have the strikeouts and Toronto has been so bad that he’s just 5-7 so I don’t recommend him often. However, we know how Houston strikes out and they have been struggling badly against lefties this month with a meager 609 OPS (25th) so I could see using him as a secondary arm to save a few bucks.
USE CAUTION:
Lance Lynn, STL (v. PHI) – Lynn is struggling a lot lately as he’s just getting knocked around the yard and not by good teams. He’s allowed 33 hits in 22.3 IP this month against the Angels, Marlins, Padres, and Cubs. Only one of those teams is a good offense and the other three are bottom-feeders yet he has a 6.85 ERA for the month. Philly is hit-and-miss and with Dom Brown uncertain after missing Wednesday with concussion-like symptoms, their offense drops another peg, but I still worry because of Lynn’s recent work. I’d sit this one out and wait for him to get right before trusting him again.
NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT, HERE’S WHY:
Erik Bedard, HOU (at TOR) – Despite some shaky outings mixed in, he’s been a stable force for the Astros since May with a 3.52 ERA in 79.3 IP. His WHIP will be eternally high (1.38), but that’s known going in. Of course his penchant for walking guys and giving up homers narrows his margin for error and he’s facing far too good an offense for that.
Kyle Kendrick, PHI (at STL) – He’s facing the Cards. Honestly, that’s enough for me these days.
Jeremy Guthrie, KC (v. BAL) – He’s not good at pitching baseballs.
YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:
- Kevin Correia, MIN*
ADVANCED METRICS: July 25th, 2013
| VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS | OPP vs L/R | OTHER ADVANCED STATS | |||||||||||
| PITCHER | wOBA L | ERA L | wOBA R | ERA R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% | ||
| Bedard | 0.378 | 6.38 | 0.354 | 4.19 | 0.248 | 0.700 | 0.293 | 4.74 | 0.250 | 86.70 | 61.8% | ||
| Buehrle | 0.312 | 4.89 | 0.355 | 4.95 | 0.259 | 0.731 | 0.306 | 4.36 | 0.278 | 101.50 | 62.8% | ||
| Hellickson | 0.334 | 4.71 | 0.295 | 4.64 | 0.285 | 0.819 | 0.295 | 3.85 | 0.256 | 97.70 | 64.9% | ||
| Lackey | 0.268 | 2.75 | 0.351 | 2.90 | 0.250 | 0.738 | 0.290 | 3.64 | 0.244 | 97.59 | 65.5% | ||
| Kendrick | 0.289 | 3.60 | 0.333 | 3.80 | 0.287 | 0.765 | 0.287 | 3.89 | 0.261 | 98.75 | 64.9% | ||
| Lynn | 0.336 | 5.19 | 0.279 | 3.15 | 0.262 | 0.719 | 0.304 | 3.17 | 0.239 | 99.85 | 64.7% | ||
| Gonzalez | 0.276 | 2.73 | 0.332 | 4.13 | 0.251 | 0.680 | 0.257 | 4.28 | 0.233 | 99.35 | 64.5% | ||
| Guthrie | 0.372 | 4.95 | 0.319 | 3.56 | 0.275 | 0.789 | 0.273 | 5.50 | 0.270 | 101.25 | 63.0% | ||
| Villanueva | 0.312 | 4.19 | 0.293 | 3.25 | 0.256 | 0.711 | 0.287 | 4.02 | 0.252 | 47.37 | 62.3% | ||
| Miley | 0.363 | 4.85 | 0.338 | 3.81 | 0.233 | 0.706 | 0.307 | 4.34 | 0.272 | 95.90 | 63.6% | ||
| Wilson | 0.291 | 3.42 | 0.314 | 3.36 | 0.239 | 0.714 | 0.291 | 3.36 | 0.234 | 109.60 | 63.6% | ||
| Straily | 0.315 | 4.95 | 0.261 | 3.80 | 0.275 | 0.773 | 0.258 | 3.70 | 0.221 | 88.53 | 66.0% | ||
| Correia | 0.365 | 4.91 | 0.347 | 3.75 | 0.249 | 0.731 | 0.298 | 4.69 | 0.284 | 96.47 | 62.2% | ||
| Iwakuma | 0.273 | 2.69 | 0.289 | 3.41 | 0.239 | 0.695 | 0.241 | 3.77 | 0.216 | 91.67 | 69.1% | ||
| Latos | 0.343 | 3.59 | 0.289 | 3.55 | 0.263 | 0.715 | 0.315 | 3.11 | 0.246 | 99.65 | 66.0% | ||
| Greinke | 0.361 | 4.30 | 0.268 | 2.93 | 0.252 | 0.723 | 0.299 | 3.61 | 0.251 | 98.80 | 60.5% | ||
- Opp Avg vs. L/R – Opponent Batting Average vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- Opp OPS vs. L/R – Opponent On Base + Slugging Percentage vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- wOBA-L and wOBA-R – Pitcher Weighted On Base Percentage Against vs. Left/Right Handed Batters
- ERA-L and ERA-R – Pitcher Earned Run Average against Left/Right Handed Batters
- BABIP – Pitcher Batting Average Against on Balls In Play
- FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching
- Pit/G – Average Pitches Thrown Per Game
- Strk% – Percentage of Pitches for Strikes
Starting Pitcher Salaries: July 25th, 2013
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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