Daily Pitcher Breakdown: June 19th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-06-19 17:40:00

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: June 19th, 2013

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STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

THE CREAM OF THE CROP:

Chris Sale, CWS (at MIN) – Yesterday was a nightmare for several aces so let’s hope that Sale is more Cliff Lee and less Justin Verlander. Sale is replicating his 2012 right down to the bump in the road during May, though last year’s was a brief spell in the bullpen and this year’s was rain and some shoulder tightness. Sale has struck out fewer than five just once and that was in his worst outing of the season when he gave up eight in 4.3 innings to the Indians. His last outing was one of the roughest losses you’ll see all year as he threw eight strong allowing just two runs (neither earned) on five hits and a walk with 14 strikeouts. Sale is the most expensive arm by a landslide, but his excellence will be worth it if you can build a low-cost, high-upside offense around him.

Gio Gonzalez, WAS (at PHI) – Gonzalez stayed hot in his last outing as he dominated the Indians and allowed two or fewer runs for the eighth time in his last 10 (2.64 ERA in 64.7 IP during the run). The Phillies are solid against lefties, sitting league average for the season and sixth in the last month, but Gonzalez had four quality starts against them last year including three in Philly. I like Gonzalez to put up a solid outing, but I worry about his chances for a win simply because of the paltry offense backing him run support-wise (2.7 runs per game vs. righties, though they smoked Kyle Kendrick back in late May).

Justin Masterson, CLE (v. KC) – The Royals smashed him on April 28th, scoring seven runs on nine hits and four walks in 6.3 innings. He did manage nine strikeouts to salvage the outing a little bit, but it was easily his worst of six April starts. The Royals were clicking a bit more offensively in April with 4.3 runs per game, but they’re down to 3.7 runs per game since then. I’d still tread carefully here. Lefties have a 785 OPS against Masterson in his three June starts. The Royals can stack up to six lefties in a lineup against Masterson. In fact, they had five in that April 28th start.

BEST OF THE REST:

Kris Medlen, ATL (v. NYM) – Medlen was strong against the Mets back on May 24th going six innings, giving up three runs on seven hits and a walk with nine strikeouts (and a no-decision). Some of the overpriced hype stemming from his incredible 12-start run last year has worn off no doubt due in part to his 1.30 WHIP and 3-7 record (though he doesn’t really control the latter). He has been solid if unspectacular, but he gets the lowly Mets who have the second-worst OPS against righties on the season at 664.

Kyle Lohse, MIL (at HOU) – Hey, we’re back on the good part of the Lohse rollercoaster. After his 2.53 ERA in April, he had a 6.51 in May, and currently has a 2.25 in three June starts. While the Astros are playing a bit better of late, let’s not confuse them for a juggernaut with their 3.4 runs per game in June. They are also striking out 25% of the time during the month, tied for the league “lead”.

C.J. Wilson, LAA (v. SEA) – Wilson the walk machine does worry me some, but the Mariners don’t really hit lefties (or anyone if we’re being honest). They have a 23% strikeout rate against southpaws which marries well with the fact that Wilson fanned nine Mariners in 5.3 innings in Seattle.

Jeff Locke, PIT (at CIN) – Locke has continued to impress all season long to the point where he is becoming quite trustworthy even in less favorable setups like a trip to Cincinnati. The Reds are eighth in OPS against lefties on the season, but just 14th in June as they are striking out 26% of the time (fifth-highest). Their three best hitters are lefties, though in fairness only Shin-Soo Choo (548 OPS) is struggling against them while Joey Votto (836) and Jay Bruce (827) have more than held their own. DailyJoust has boosted his price and cut into his appeal, but the other outlets have kept him fairly low priced for what he has done thus far.

USE CAUTION:

Kyle Kendrick, PHI (v. WAS) – As I mentioned earlier, the Nats popped Kendrick for five earned in five innings allowing eight hits and four walks while notching just one strikeout. Kendrick reeled off three straight quality starts after that before a pummeling in Coors Field his last time out. We’re left a decent arm facing a poor offense. The Nationals are especially weak without Bryce Harper and while he only did some of the damage in the May 24th outing, his absence makes it an easier lineup to navigate. I don’t love Kendrick here because he is a soft-tosser who succeeds with groundballs and control, but the budget conscious will see the chance for a solid outing at a very low price. His win probability is lowered significantly by the fact that the Phillies are facing Gonzalez or else I might’ve snuck him into the “Best of the rest” pool.

Ryan Dempster, BOS (v. TB) – He’s got four straight quality starts with the Rangers, Angels, and Orioles among the opponents and three of them at home. He certainly wasn’t as bad as the 5.51 ERA he had in May. He has massive strikeout potential and while the Rays are solid offensively, he did dominate them in mid-April throwing seven innings of one-run ball with 10 strikeouts.

Tommy Milone, OAK (at TEX) – Trusting him away from home is always risky, but it is especially risky in a venue like Arlington. He was excellent in his last two outings on the road (14 IP, 3 ER v. the Brewers and White Sox) and the Rangers have scored the second-fewest runs in baseball during June (47), but have the fewest runs per game at 2.9 (the Yankees have one fewer run and two fewer games). It’s really risky with the home run machine (7 in his last 5 outings), but if you were ever going to roll the dice with him in this venue, this is your best chance.

Bronson Arroyo, CIN (v. PIT) – Mat Latos getting smoked by the Pirates must mean that Arroyo is going to throw seven scoreless. There is no logistical reasoning behind that, it just seems to go that way sometimes because baseball is baseball (and it’s awesome). I still don’t trust him. I know he’s been pretty good and the Pirates really aren’t, but his consistent home run issues make a severe implosion risk against any team. He was lucky to escape his last outing against Milwaukee with only two earned as he gave up 12 hits (two of which were HRs) and a walk.

Shaun Marcum, NYM (at ATL) – Marcum’s bounced up and down this year with little rhyme or reason as it relates to opponent or venue. He does have a 12 strikeout start against Atlanta from late-May, but they also scored three runs on nine base runners in 4.3 innings in early May. He was sharp against St. Louis, but crushed by Pittsburgh. He had one good and one bad outing against Miami in back-to-back “starts” (the second was an eight inning relief appearance). In other words, good luck figuring him out. He is far too inconsistent to be trusted, though there is talent in his right arm to put up a big outing.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

Jeremy Hellickson, TB (at BOS) – He erased all of his goodwill from the Orioles outing by getting obliterated by the Royals. Just stay away.

Jake Westbrook, STL (v. CHC) – The 2.05 ERA is a lot less impressive when you see his 1.50 WHIP and ugly 3.9 K/9 and BB/9 rates.

• Joe Saunders
• Mark Buehrle
• Luis Mendoza
• Juan Nicasio
• Justin Grimm
• Kevin Correia
• Erik Bedard
• Edwin Jackson

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PARK FACTORS: June 19th, 2013

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Starting Pitcher Salaries: June 19th, 2013

Shown below are starting pitcher salaries as well as the percent of top statistics.

• Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.

1) Percent Top in Red are the most expensive. Between 80% and 100% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
2) Percent Top in Yellow cost between 60% and 80% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
3) Percent Top in Green cost between 40% and 60% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
4) Percent Top in Blue are the cheapest pitchers each day and are 40% or lower than the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.