Daily Pitcher Breakdown: June 20th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-06-20 20:23:22

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: June 20th, 2013

_____________________________________________________________________________________

STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

THE CREAM OF THE CROP:

Jordan Zimmermann, WAS (v. COL) – Getting smashed by the Indians is hardly a crime. I’m not at all worried about him. After crushing on the road in April, the Rockies have fallen back to a league average away from Coors, plus Troy Tulowitzki is out. Some other aces on the slate today keeps Zimm’s price down a bit.

Mike Minor, ATL (v. NYM) – Minor is also coming off of one of his worst outings, but he still went six and fanned seven (with four earned runs and seven hits allowed). He has two gems against the Mets this year already and I’m expecting a third today. It’ll cost you to make it part of your team, but again, because of this next guy, he’s not the most expensive guy out there.
Felix Hernandez, SEA (at LAA) – Here’s our top guy at every outlet. After giving up 10 runs in 10.7 innings against Cleveland and Texas, he’s posted a 1.84 ERA in 29.3 innings over his last four with an 0.89 WHIP, 29 strikeouts, and a 4.1 K/BB ratio.

BEST OF THE REST:

Lance Lynn, STL (v. CHC) – A pair of wholly unspectacular outings his last two times out, but he did net a win in Miami despite allowing seven runs in five innings. We saw this from Lynn a couple times last year, too. He will string a few lame outings together, but he always got back on track. He owns the Cubs with a 4-1 record, 2.70 ERA, and 1.08 WHIP in 33.3 innings (five starts, one relief appearance) which includes a seven inning, two run gem from early May. He struck out eight and walked one, but took the loss as Travis Wood was even better.

USE CAUTION:

Jon Niese, NYM (at ATL) – Niese has a 1.93 ERA in his last five, but only one win to show for it. He also has a 1.34 WHIP in that span so he’s had to escape a lot of traffic on the base paths. The Braves trounced him on May 5th, racking up seven runs in four innings, but they have been baseball’s worst team against lefties in June with a 538 OPS. They were 23rd in May so the struggles aren’t confined to the recent past. Plus they love striking out. I would like Niese a bit more if Minor wasn’t his counterpart on the hill. At sites that heavily reward pitcher wins, you might not want to roll with him, but otherwise I think he could be a great bargain.

John Lackey, BOS (at DET) – He’s come out of the other end of a hellacious CLE, TEX, TB, and BAL run (as well as trip to Philly which isn’t easy even with their modest offense) with a 2.84 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 31.7 innings. He had 24 strikeouts and eight walks in the quintet of starts, too. The schedule of death continues with a trip to Detroit, but he’s proven he can meet the challenge of tough competition so I wouldn’t completely dismiss him just because he’s got the Tigers – especially at his price. For as potent as they have been at times this year, the Tigers have also been shutout six times.

Matt Moore, TB (at NYY) – The price is ridiculously enticing given his talent, but I think it’s a stay-away for now. The Yankees certainly aren’t scary, but they can do plenty of damage in a one game sample. Plus that ballpark is murder on lefties. I could see Moore getting too fine to quell his walk issues and grooving a few in there. Even at the crazy low price, he’s just too much right now to be confident. Of course, that’s why they say high-risk, high-reward. He will get some burn today just because of his price, but if you do decide to dabble with him, don’t put all of your eggs in the Moore basket.

Scott Feldman, CHC (at STL) – Feldman has been a revelation for the Cubs this year, but I think you’re pressing your luck if you choose him against the Cards. They smoke most righties and with Lynn going, sneaking a win won’t be easy.

Andy Pettitte, NYY (v. TB) – Since May 1st, the Rays are baseball’s best team against lefties with an 816 OPS. In fact, they are the only team over 800. Pettitte went six strong allowing two runs and fanning 10 in Tampa on April 24th, but they struggled at the dish throughout April. The 41-year old southpaw has been fine this year and probably even better than expected given his age, but he’s far from special and I’d probably avoid this game altogether given how poor Moore’s been of late.
Tom Koehler, MIA (at SF) – In a vacuum I don’t hate Koehler here, but with low-dollar options like Lackey and even Moore available, I’d rather invest the few extra bucks to roll with them over Koehler who needs to be near-perfect to earn a win.

Chad Gaudin, SF (v. MIA) – I feel like the Giants could make me a starter. Gaudin had a pair of gems before Atlanta got to him a little bit, but he hasn’t completely flopped in any of his outings. The Marlins obviously offer a chance for a big outing, but their lineup is packing a little more punch these days. He’s not even a cheap option at every outlet, but there are higher upside options who don’t cost much at the outlets where Gaudin is cheap.

Jason Marquis, SD (v. LAD) – With Yasiel Puig and Hanley Ramirez in the lineup, plus Adrian Gonzalez raking, this isn’t the same anemic lineup we were getting used to picking on with our mid-level arms like Marquis. Plus I just can’t get over his almost 1:1 strikeout to walk ratio. That’ SO bad. He’s won his last eight decisions (spanning 10 starts) posting a 3.25 ERA, but the 1.43 WHIP points the inherent risk. Even on a short slate, there are better options.

Tommy Hanson, LAA (v. SEA) – Ugh. I know he’s facing Seattle, but he does nothing to inspire confidence. His numbers have been OK in his last two against Boston and New York, but neither were overwhelmingly impressive when you watch the game. If you’re going bargain basement arm, he’s not the choice, especially facing Felix.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

• Jose Alvarez, DET
• Roy Oswalt, COL
• Stephen Fife, LAD

_____________________________________________________________________________________

PARK FACTORS: June 20th, 2013

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Starting Pitcher Salaries: June 20th, 2013

Shown below are starting pitcher salaries as well as the percent of top statistics.

• Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.

1) Percent Top in Red are the most expensive. Between 80% and 100% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
2) Percent Top in Yellow cost between 60% and 80% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
3) Percent Top in Green cost between 40% and 60% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
4) Percent Top in Blue are the cheapest pitchers each day and are 40% or lower than the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.