Daily Pitcher Breakdown: June 23rd
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sale | CWS | BAL | 59.1 | 1.97 | 2.26 | 0.68 | 50.0% | 31.6% | 4.2% | 0.61 | 1.24 |
| Chen | BAL | CWS | 83.1 | 3.78 | 3.75 | 1.24 | 38.5% | 17.4% | 3.5% | 1.19 | 1.19 |
| Eovaldi | MIA | PHI | 87.1 | 3.71 | 3.46 | 1.22 | 53.8% | 19.7% | 4.4% | 0.72 | 1.42 |
| Hernandez | PHI | MIA | 67.2 | 4.26 | 4.36 | 1.50 | 27.3% | 17.5% | 11.0% | 1.06 | 2.02 |
| Whitley | NYY | TOR | 33.2 | 2.41 | 3.63 | 1.02 | 20.0% | 17.8% | 2.2% | 0.27 | 1.07 |
| Stroman | TOR | NYY | 28 | 5.14 | 3.51 | 1.57 | 66.7% | 17.8% | 4.7% | 0.96 | 1.67 |
| Volquez | PIT | TBR | 78.2 | 3.89 | 4.21 | 1.19 | 33.3% | 16.1% | 7.6% | 1.26 | 1.51 |
| Cobb | TBR | PIT | 47.1 | 3.99 | 3.24 | 1.17 | 42.9% | 23.2% | 6.7% | 0.95 | 1.71 |
| Simon | CIN | CHC | 82.1 | 2.95 | 4.12 | 1.10 | 58.3% | 15.0% | 5.7% | 1.20 | 1.52 |
| Samardzija | CHC | CIN | 97 | 2.78 | 3.33 | 1.21 | 69.2% | 22.4% | 7.2% | 0.46 | 1.95 |
| Gonzalez | WAS | MIL | 50.2 | 4.62 | 3.64 | 1.35 | 44.4% | 24.4% | 9.2% | 0.89 | 0.90 |
| Garza | MIL | WAS | 86.1 | 4.17 | 4.34 | 1.34 | 23.1% | 17.6% | 8.5% | 0.73 | 1.08 |
| Greinke | LAD | KCR | 91 | 2.57 | 2.85 | 1.16 | 46.2% | 26.1% | 5.4% | 0.99 | 1.57 |
| Guthrie | KCR | LAD | 91.1 | 4.04 | 4.66 | 1.26 | 46.2% | 13.0% | 6.2% | 1.28 | 1.07 |
| Lynn | STL | COL | 85.1 | 3.16 | 3.85 | 1.30 | 46.2% | 20.9% | 8.4% | 0.63 | 1.32 |
| Chacin | COL | STL | 51.2 | 4.53 | 4.80 | 1.41 | 14.3% | 15.6% | 11.0% | 1.05 | 1.39 |
| Lackey | BOS | SEA | 94.1 | 3.24 | 3.40 | 1.22 | 69.2% | 20.7% | 4.6% | 0.76 | 1.39 |
| Hernandez | SEA | BOS | 106.1 | 2.29 | 2.52 | 0.99 | 71.4% | 26.8% | 4.6% | 0.25 | 2.16 |
| Cashner | SDP | SFG | 69.1 | 2.47 | 3.53 | 1.19 | 80.0% | 19.7% | 6.9% | 0.26 | 2.10 |
| Cain | SFG | SDP | 63.2 | 4.52 | 4.27 | 1.27 | 30.0% | 18.4% | 9.0% | 1.55 | 1.15 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Felix Hernandez SEA (v. BOS) – Hernandez is on a filthy run and might be the best right-hander going right now (I think I’d still give Kershaw the overall nod). Since his odd 0-strikeout game back on May 7th, Hernandez has ripped off a 1.78 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, and 9.9 K:BB ratio in 60.7 IP with 69 strikeouts. You have to pay a premium, but it’s for near-certainty.
Chris Sale CWS (at BAL) – You’ll also notice I went with “best right-hander” for Felix as opposed to the AL’s best pitcher because Sale is giving him fierce competition there. Sale had a 2.30 ERA in four starts before hitting the DL and he’s been even better since returning: 2.13 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, and 15.3 K:BB ratio in 38 IP with 46 strikeouts. I wonder if you could find enough low-to-mid tier options offensively to be able to afford a Felix-Sale combo. It’d probably be too hard to compete in any GPP unless you just perfectly hit on some subs getting a rare start or some 8-9 hitter popping a homer, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the two could essentially win you a 50-50 match almost by themselves.
Alex Cobb TB (v. PIT) – I was a touch concerned that Cobb might still be hurting as he was uncharacteristically hittable with 27 hits allowed and a 6.55 ERA in his 22 IP during his first four starts back, but he’s been sharper in his last two with 1 ER (2 R in all) in 13.3 IP over his last two starts with 17 strikeouts. Cobb’s skills are a dead match for last year’s with equal 8.4 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and 0.8 HR/9 rates and a 7.6 H/9 rate that is just 0.1 higher than last year’s 7.5 H/9. I can see Cobb getting hot for a stretch with another big start here.
Zack Greinke LAD (at KC) – Greinke is down here because of the threat of rain. I think he should cut up his former franchise if given the opportunity. I didn’t really buy their offensive surge and we’ve seen them cool with just 10 runs in their last five games that includes a four-game losing streak (with a three-game sweep against Seattle at home). Now they’ve only allowed 14 in those four games, but that doesn’t affect us with regards to picking Greinke except that I guess he could get a no-decision in a good outing if the Dodgers don’t score much, but we don’t chase wins here – they’re too unpredictable. Greinke is continuing to get better with a major jump in strikeout and groundball rate while cutting down his walk rate, too. Keep an eye on that weather.
Gio Gonzalez WAS (at MIL) – Gonzalez was a little wobbly in his return from the DL, but I’m not particularly worried about him rounding into form. The Brewers drop a full righty lineup against lefties – or at least they have each of the last two days against Tyler Matzek and Christian Friedrich – yet Gonzalez is nearly 200 points better in OPS against righties with a .718 mark compared to .913 against lefties. The Brewers have some stud bats to fear, but this matchup plays nicely for Gonzalez.
John Lackey BOS (at SEA) – I think I’ve lamented this before in this very space, but Lackey just doesn’t get his due. He has been unquestionably fantastic since the start of 2013 with a 3.32 ERA in 292.7 IP of work. In fact, he’s almost canceled out the ugly 2010-2011 seasons and pushed his career mark back under 4.00. His control-oriented approach the last two seasons has led to back-to-back career-best walk rates while also ramping his strikeout rates back up to the peaks of his mid-20s. He’s been great home or away so I expect him to handle a modest Seattle offense in their pitcher-friendly ballpark.
Jeff Samardzija CHC (v. CIN) – Samardzija has had a shaky June, but the skills are still very strong with a 10.6 K/9 and 3.3 K:BB ratio so I’m not particularly worried. He’s been bitten by a .429 BABIP so there’s been some misfortune tied into his 29 hits in 22 IP of work, but a lot of the ERA damage was done in that 3 IP/8 ER outing against Milwaukee. He’s gone 6+ IP in each of his last three with a 2.84 ERA and 23 Ks in 19 IP which has hilariously still raised his ERA from 2.54 after that Milwaukee outing to 2.60 now. Watch out for rain here, too, but with clear weather, I’m confidently using Samardzija.
Nathan Eovaldi MIA (at PHI) – Eovaldi has regressed from his hot start, particularly with 11 ER in his last two outings, but the skills (especially the walk rate) have still been strong despite a modest 3.96 ERA in his last six. He’s got 6.0 K:BB ratio with just four walks allowed in the 38.7 IP of work. He was rolling in his last outing until a four-run sixth inning dashed a good outing. The Phillies are 27th in wOBA against righties this year at a paltry .288.
Alfredo Simon CIN (at CHC) – I’d expect a third matchup against the Cubs to bring more strong results as Simon has handled them easily twice already allowing 2 ER (3 R in all) in 12 IP back in April. The Cubs offense hasn’t really gotten any better in the interim meaning we should see more of the same from Simon. If you desire strikeouts, you should look elsewhere, but Simon does everything else exceptionally well.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Matt Cain SF (v. SD) – This is what it’s come to with Cain. His price has sank to a value level at many outlets as the 4.52 ERA and 1-5 record make it tough to buy in. Alas, a matchup against San Diego puts just about anyone into play. The issue with Cain is that he was playing on a thin margin for error when he was excelling and that margin has dried up substantially with diminished command seemingly making up for years of out-pacing with his HR/FB rate yielding a 15.1% rate this year. Obviously, that’s not how it works and we can reasonably expect his HR/FB rate to come down, but I think we’d see it come down more to the 11% he had last year as opposed to the minuscule 8% and below rates of his prime.
Marcus Stroman TOR (v. NYY) – Stroman had his first rough start against these Yankees his last time out, but I’m willing to bet on a rebound – especially at the rock-bottom price. As he continues to linger as one of, or sometimes the overall cheapest arm on the board, he doesn’t need to dominate to earn positive value. Another one of his strong 6 IP outings like his first three would be more than enough to be a huge value at his price.
Chase Whitley NYY (at TOR) – The Jays offense looked like it might have woken up from its slumber on Friday, but then they mustered just four more runs over the weekend. They’re 4.3 RPG average this month is boosted by three double-digit outputs and it drops to 3.3 if you take those out. Whitley has been fantastic this year and kept these Jays down in a 5 IP/2 ER outing his last time out. I put Stroman ahead of Whitley because I prefer upside with my value picks and while Whitley have been very good, he isn’t a strikeout guy and all things being equal with IP and ER, I’d bet on Stroman to have several more Ks than Whitley.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- Roberto Hernandez PHI (v. MIA)
- Jeremy Guthrie KC (v. LAD)
- Jhoulys Chacin COL (v. STL)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sale | 0.167 | 2.09 | 0.290 | 3.08 | 0.264 | 0.724 | 0.670 | 1.97 | 0.274 | 100.89 | 65.9% |
| Chen | 0.323 | 3.76 | 0.334 | 4.05 | 0.240 | 0.668 | 1.240 | 3.78 | 0.14 | 97.00 | 65.4% |
| Eovaldi | 0.339 | 4.05 | 0.285 | 3.15 | 0.234 | 0.653 | 1.210 | 3.71 | 0.153 | 100.79 | 67.0% |
| Hernandez | 0.382 | 5.84 | 0.327 | 3.83 | 0.256 | 0.722 | 1.490 | 4.26 | 0.065 | 79.33 | 60.3% |
| Whitley | 0.314 | 3.15 | 0.222 | 2.00 | 0.263 | 0.766 | 1.010 | 2.41 | 0.156 | 81.33 | 65.8% |
| Stroman | 0.417 | 7.36 | 0.306 | 2.70 | 0.247 | 0.684 | 1.570 | 5.14 | 0.132 | 56.67 | 64.5% |
| Volquez | 0.359 | 5.81 | 0.330 | 5.05 | 0.247 | 0.692 | 1.180 | 3.89 | 0.085 | 85.29 | 65.0% |
| Cobb | 0.287 | 3.39 | 0.289 | 2.39 | 0.258 | 0.715 | 1.160 | 3.99 | 0.165 | 91.38 | 65.4% |
| Simon | 0.320 | 3.54 | 0.264 | 2.53 | 0.223 | 0.640 | 1.090 | 2.95 | 0.093 | 91.62 | 65.5% |
| Samardzija | 0.338 | 4.16 | 0.297 | 3.60 | 0.248 | 0.687 | 1.210 | 2.78 | 0.152 | 100.33 | 65.4% |
| Gonzalez | 0.280 | 3.67 | 0.313 | 3.74 | 0.238 | 0.698 | 1.340 | 4.62 | 0.152 | 96.11 | 61.4% |
| Garza | 0.324 | 4.24 | 0.297 | 3.60 | 0.235 | 0.673 | 1.330 | 4.17 | 0.091 | 98.21 | 65.5% |
| Greinke | 0.313 | 2.78 | 0.272 | 2.51 | 0.268 | 0.695 | 1.160 | 2.57 | 0.207 | 99.13 | 65.4% |
| Guthrie | 0.374 | 4.57 | 0.282 | 3.35 | 0.270 | 0.760 | 1.260 | 4.04 | 0.067 | 104.21 | 64.7% |
| Lynn | 0.333 | 4.52 | 0.289 | 3.18 | 0.280 | 0.783 | 1.300 | 3.16 | 0.125 | 104.71 | 62.4% |
| Chacin | 0.318 | 4.16 | 0.302 | 3.34 | 0.259 | 0.692 | 1.390 | 4.53 | 0.046 | 93.44 | 62.0% |
| Lackey | 0.289 | 2.96 | 0.318 | 3.78 | 0.234 | 0.678 | 1.220 | 3.24 | 0.161 | 103.00 | 68.4% |
| Hernandez | 0.279 | 3.07 | 0.257 | 2.41 | 0.244 | 0.686 | 0.990 | 2.29 | 0.223 | 102.93 | 66.5% |
| Cashner | 0.311 | 3.56 | 0.255 | 2.33 | 0.253 | 0.708 | 1.180 | 2.47 | 0.128 | 95.45 | 67.8% |
| Cain | 0.288 | 4.03 | 0.324 | 4.29 | 0.218 | 0.616 | 1.260 | 4.52 | 0.094 | 93.45 | 62.7% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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